Financial Market Imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements on exports

This paper studies the role of financial market imperfections in the way countries' exports react to a currency depreciation. Using quarterly data for 27 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2005, we show that the impact of a depreciation will be less positive - or even negative - for a country as: (i) firms borrow in foreign currency ; (ii) they are credit constrained ; (iii) they are specialized in industries that require more external capital; (iv) the depreciation's or devaluation's magnitude is large. This last result confirms the existence of a non-linear relationship between an exchange rate depreciation and a country's exports reaction when financial imperfections are observed. This work offers a new explanation for the consequences of recent currency crises in middle income countries.International Trade,Exchange Rate Movements,Financial Development,Financial Market Imperfections

Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements

This paper analyses empirically the role of financial market imperfections in the way countries' exports react to a currency depreciation. Using quarterly data for 27 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2005, we find that the impact of a depreciation on exports will be less positive - or even negative - for a country if : (i) firms borrow in foreign currency ; (ii) they are credit constrained ; (iii) they are specialized in industries that require more external capital ; (iv) the magnitude of depreciation or devaluation is large. This last result emphasizes the existence of a non-linear relationship between an exchange rate depreciation and the reaction of a country's exports when financial imperfections are observed. This offers a new explanation for the consequences of recent currency crises in middle income countries.International trade, exchange rate movements, balance-sheets effects, financial market imperfections.

THE VULNERABILITY OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE CASE OF TRADE

In the early stage of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the conventional wisdom was that financial under-development of sub Saharan African economies may have been a bless-ing in disguise because it insulated them from the direct effects of the crisis. This paper argues that this may also make African exporters, dangerously more dependent on the health of financial institutions in countries where they export. In the 2008-2009 financial crisis, we find that African exports to the US have been hit more than other countries. On past financial crises (1976-2002), we find that African exporters are more vulnerable to recessions in partner countries. Hence, African countries seem more affected by the income effect of financial crises. In addition to this income effect, we find that, for the average exporter, the disruption effect due to a financial crisis in the partner country is moderate (a deviation from the gravity predicted trade of around 2 to 8%) and long lasting (around 7 years). We find however that the disruption effect is much larger for African exporters as the fall in trade (relative to gravity) is at least 20% more than for other countries in the aftermath of the crisis. Only a part of the vulnerability of African exports comes from a composition effect as primary exports are hit more than manufac-turing exports. We also provide evidence that African countries more dependent on trade finance are hit more badlyInternational trade, financial crises, trade collapse, Africa

Export dynamics and sales at home

How do firms' sales interact across markets? Are foreign and domestic sales complements or substitutes? Using a large French firm-level database that combine balance-sheet and product-destination-specific export information over the period 1995-2001, we study the interconnections between exports and domestic sales. We identify exogenous shocks that affect firm demand on foreign markets to instrument yearly variations in exports. Our results show that exogenous variations in foreign sales are positively associated with domestic sales, even after controlling for changes in domestic demand. A 10% exogenous increase in exports generates a 1.5 to 3% increase in domestic sales in the short-term. This result is robust to various estimation techniques, instruments, controls, and sub-samples. It is also supported by the natural experiment of the Asian crisis in the late 1990's. We discuss various channels that may explain this complementarity.Export dynamics, domestic sales, liquidity

Financial Crises and International Trade: The Long Way to Recovery

Standard theoretical models would predict that a currency depreciation generates an increase in net exports. However, recent emerging market crises, accompanied by sharp exchange rate devaluations, have often been followed by a fall in or a stagnation of exports. This paper provides a simple theoretical framework which shows that a currency crisis affects trade through (i) a competitiveness effect, i.e. a variation in relative prices, that positively influences the intensive margin of trade (the amount of exports by firms); (ii) a balance-sheet effect, i.e. a modification of the fixed cost of exports, which negatively affects the extensive margin of trade (the number of exporters). We derive from our model a gravity-like equation of bilateral sectoral trade which we estimate using data on 27 industries and 32 countries over the period 1976-2002. First, we find that these events have a long-lasting negative impact on exports - which remain below their natural level for five years. We present evidence suggesting that this persistent effect is due to the combination of firms’ foreign currency borrowing and fixed costs of exports, which leads to important balance-sheet problems in the aftermath of the crisis. Second, the net effect of crises on exports largely depends on country specialization: the positive competitiveness effect is magnified by a specialization in high elasticity of substitution’s industries, while negative balance-sheets effects are exacerbated in industries more dependent upon external finance, in which assets are more tangible, or in high fixed costs sectors.Currency Crises, International Trade, Gravity Equation, Balance-sheet effects, Fixed Costs

Has the recent financial crisis had an impact on sub-Saharan Africa?

Early in the financial crisis, a common view was that Africa’s low level of financial integration may be a blessing in disguise, insulating the region from the direct impact of the crisis. Indeed, it may be that the direct wealth effect has been less important than in other regions that are open in terms of financial flows

Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements

URL des Cahiers : https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/CAHIERS-MSECahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques 2006.55 - ISSN 1624-0340This paper analyses empirically the role of financial market imperfections in the way countries' exports react to a currency depreciation. Using quarterly data for 27 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2005, we find that the impact of a depreciation on exports will be less positive - or even negative - for a country if: (i) firms borrow in foreign currency; (ii) they are credit constrained; (iii) they are specialized in industries that require more external capital; (iv) the magnitude of depreciation or devaluation is large. This last result emphasizes the existence of a non-linear relationship between an exchange rate depreciation and the reaction of a country's exports when financial imperfections are observed. This offers a new explanation for the consequences of recent currency crises in middle income countries.Cet article s'intéresse à la manière dont les imperfections de marché financier peuvent modifier la réaction des exporatations d'un pays lors d'une dépréciation du taux de change. Nous montrons, à l'aide de données trimestrielles pour 27 pays durant la période 1990-2005, que la réaction du volume d'exportation consécutive à une dépréciation sera d'autant moins positive que (i) les firmes domestiques empruntent en monnaie étrangère, (ii) il existe des contraintes de crédit, (iii) les exportateurs sont spécialisés dans des productions nécessitant l'utilisation de davantage de capital externe, (iv) l'ampleur de la dépréciation est importante. Ce dernier élément nous permet de confirmer l'existence d'une relation non linéaire entre dépréciation de la monnaie domestique et réaction des exportations, compte tenu des imperfections de marché financier. Ce travail propose en particulier une nouvelle approche permettant de mieux comprendre la faible réaction des exportations dans les économies émergentes

Credit constraints and the cyclicality of R&D investment: Evidence from France

We use a French firm-level data set containing 13,000 firms over the period 1993-2004 to analyze the relationship between credit constraints and firms' R&D behavior over the business cycle. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) the share of R&D investment over total investment is countercyclical without credit constraints, but it becomes less countercyclical as firms face tighter credit constraints; (ii) this result is magnified for firms in sectors that depend more heavily upon external finance, or that are characterized by a low degree of asset tangibility ; (iii) in more credit constrained firms, R&D investment share plummets during recessions but does not increase proportionally during upturns; (iv) average R&D investment and productivity growth are more negatively correlated with sales volatility in more credit constrained firms.business cycles ; R&D ; credit constraints ; volatility

How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications

This paper analyzes the reaction of exporters to exchange rate changes. We present a model where, in the presence of distribution costs in the export market, high and low productivity firms react differently to a depreciation. Whereas high productivity firms optimally raise their markup rather than the volume they export, low productivity firms choose the opposite strategy. Hence, pricing to market is both endogenous and heterogenous. This heterogeneity has important consequences for the aggregate impact of exchange rate movements. The presence of fixed costs to export means that only high productivity firms can export, firms which precisely react to an exchange rate depreciation by increasing their export price rather than their sales. We show that this selection effect can explain the weak impact of exchange rate movements on aggregate export volumes. We then test the main predictions of the model on a very rich French firm level data set with destination-specific export values and volumes on the period 1995-2005. Our results confirm that high performance firms react to a depreciation by increasing their export price rather than their export volume. The reverse is true for low productivity exporters. Pricing to market by exporters is also more pervasive in sectors and destination countries with higher distribution costs. Consistent with our theoretical framework, we show that the probability of firms to enter the export market following a depreciation increases. The extensive margin response to exchange rate changes is modest at the aggregate level because firms that enter, following a depreciation, are smaller relative to existing firms

Export dynamics and sales at home

How do rms' sales interact across markets? Are foreign and domestic sales complements or substitutes? Using a large French rm-level database that combine balance-sheet and product-destination-speci c export information over the period 1995-2001, we study the interconnections between exports and domestic sales. We identify exogenous shocks that a ect rm demand on foreign markets to instrument yearly variations in exports. Our results show that exogenous variations in foreign sales are positively associated with domestic sales, even after controlling for changes in domestic demand. A 10% exogenous increase in exports generates a 1.5 to 3% increase in domestic sales in the short-term. This result is robust to various esti-mation techniques, instruments, controls, and sub-samples. It is also supported by the natural experiment of the Asian crisis in the late 1990's. We discuss various channels that may explain this complementarity