Maritime piracy worldwide

Maritime piracy is a complex phenomenon that, according to the definition used, comprises different criminal behaviours (e.g., theft, robbery, kidnapping), modus operandi (e.g., massive armed attacks, insiders, use of skiffs and mother ships) and targets (e.g., the goods carried on the ship, the belongings of the crew, the ship itself). These features may change over time and over space. Looking at the evolution and peculiarities of this phenomenon in different areas can help to identify regularities and implement more effective countermeasures. In recent years, Transcrime has been active in promoting the idea that actual reductions of complex crime phenomena can be reached through specific prevention strategies. This approach relies on accurate analyses of the available data to identify regular patterns and risk factors. This study summarises some of the findings that emerged from the research Transcrime conducted on maritime piracy, using a comparative approach

Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy

Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short- and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime- and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups

Link Prediction in Criminal Networks: A Tool for Criminal Intelligence Analysis

The problem of link prediction has recently received increasing attention from scholars in network science. In social network analysis, one of its aims is to recover missing links, namely connections among actors which are likely to exist but have not been reported because data are incomplete or subject to various types of uncertainty. In the field of criminal investigations, problems of incomplete information are encountered almost by definition, given the obvious anti-detection strategies set up by criminals and the limited investigative resources. In this paper, we work on a specific dataset obtained from a real investigation, and we propose a strategy to identify missing links in a criminal network on the basis of the topological analysis of the links classified as marginal, i.e. removed during the investigation procedure. The main assumption is that missing links should have opposite features with respect to marginal ones. Measures of node similarity turn out to provide the best characterization in this sense. The inspection of the judicial source documents confirms that the predicted links, in most instances, do relate actors with large likelihood of co-participation in illicit activitie

The liquefaction features in the area of the May-June 2012 Emilia seismic sequence: An investigation approach coupling Electric Resistivity Tomography (ERT) with coring

In order to geometrically characterize the liquefaction features observed in the epicentral sector of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence and to evaluate the potential for recording palaeoseismic features of the area, we performed two electric resistivity tomographic sections and 4 shallow corings, coupled with 14C datings and archaeological age estimates in selected sites. Preliminary results show that there is a good agreement between ERT sections and core-logs; moreover a major role in determining the scalar relationships of the liquefaction features is played by the local geomorphological and topographic setting. The high sedimentation rates obtained through core datings (4 – 20 mm/yr) suggest that the described methodological approach can cover time windows of only a few centuries, thus hardly encompassing, in this tectonic setting, a significant period for paleoseismological purposes.Published206-2092T. Deformazione crostale attivaN/A or not JC

Survey on worldwide trauma team activation requirement

PURPOSE : trauma team activation (TTA) is thought to be essential for advanced and specialized care of very severely injured patients. However, non-specific TTA criteria may result in overtriage that consumes valuable resources or endanger patients in need of TTA secondary to undertriage. Consequently, criterion standard definitions to calculate the accuracy of the various TTA protocols are required for research and quality assurance purposes. Recently, several groups suggested a list of conditions when a trauma team is considered to be essential in the initial care in the emergency room. The objective of the survey was to post hoc identify trauma-related conditions that are thought to require a specialized trauma team that may be widely accepted, independent from the country’s income level. METHODS : A set of questions was developed, centered around the level of agreement with the proposed post hoc criteria to define adequate trauma team activation. The participants gave feedback before they answered the survey to improve the quality of the questions. The finalized survey was conducted using an online tool and a word form. The income per capita of a country was rated according to the World Bank Country and Lending groups. RESULTS : The return rate was 76% with a total of 37 countries participating. The agreement with the proposed criteria to define post hoc correct requirements for trauma team activation was more than 75% for 12 of the 20 criteria. The rate of disagreement was low and varied between zero and 13%. The level of agreement was independent from the country’s level of income. CONCLUSIONS : The agreement on criteria to post hoc define correct requirements for trauma team activation appears high and it may be concluded that the proposed criteria could be useful for most countries, independent from their level of income. Nevertheless, more discussions on an international level appear to be warranted to achieve a full consensus to define a universal set of criteria that will allow for quality assessment of over- and undertriage of trauma team activation as well as for the validation of field triage criteria for the most severely injured patients worldwide.http://link.springer.com/journal/68am2022Surger

Reply to "Letter to Editor regarding: Development of the Italian fractures registry (RIFra): A call for action to improve quality and safety"

No abstract availabl

Forearm fracture sequelae

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Link Prediction in Criminal Networks: A Tool for Criminal Intelligence Analysis

The problem of link prediction has recently received increasing attention from scholars in network science. In social network analysis, one of its aims is to recover missing links, namely connections among actors which are likely to exist but have not been reported because data are incomplete or subject to various types of uncertainty. In the field of criminal investigations, problems of incomplete information are encountered almost by definition, given the obvious anti-detection strategies set up by criminals and the limited investigative resources. In this paper, we work on a specific dataset obtained from a real investigation, and we propose a strategy to identify missing links in a criminal network on the basis of the topological analysis of the links classified as marginal, i.e. removed during the investigation procedure. The main assumption is that missing links should have opposite features with respect to marginal ones. Measures of node similarity turn out to provide the best characterization in this sense. The inspection of the judicial source documents confirms that the predicted links, in most instances, do relate actors with large likelihood of co-participation in illicit activities