Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne’s Disease Control Programme in Ireland

Bovine paratuberculosis is a disease characterised by chronic granulomatous enteritis which manifests clinically as a protein-losing enteropathy causing diarrhoea, hypoproteinaemia, emaciation and, eventually death. Some evidence exists to suggest a possible zoonotic link and a national voluntary Johne’s Disease Control Programme was initiated by Animal Health Ireland in 2013. The objective of this study was to estimate herd-level true prevalence (HTP) and animal-level true prevalence (ATP) of paratuberculosis in Irish herds enrolled in the national voluntary JD control programme during 2013–14. Two datasets were used in this study. The first dataset had been collected in Ireland during 2005 (5822 animals from 119 herds), and was used to construct model priors. Model priors were updated with a primary (2013–14) dataset which included test records from 99,101 animals in 1039 dairy herds and was generated as part of the national voluntary JD control programme. The posterior estimate of HTP from the final Bayesian model was 0.23–0.34 with a 95% probability. Across all herds, the median ATP was found to be 0.032 (0.009, 0.145). This study represents the first use of Bayesian methodology to estimate the prevalence of paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. The HTP estimate was higher than previous Irish estimates but still lower than estimates from other major dairy producing countries

The harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis: global perspectives on invasion history and ecology

The harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), is native to Asia but has been intentionally introduced to many countries as a biological control agent of pest insects. In numerous countries, however, it has been introduced unintentionally. The dramatic spread of H. axyridis within many countries has been met with considerable trepidation. It is a generalist top predator, able to thrive in many habitats and across wide climatic conditions. It poses a threat to biodiversity, particularly aphidophagous insects, through competition and predation, and in many countries adverse effects have been reported on other species, particularly coccinellids. However, the patterns are not consistent around the world and seem to be affected by many factors including landscape and climate. Research on H. axyridis has provided detailed insights into invasion biology from broad patterns and processes to approaches in surveillance and monitoring. An impressive number of studies on this alien species have provided mechanistic evidence alongside models explaining large-scale patterns and processes. The involvement of citizens in monitoring this species in a number of countries around the world is inspiring and has provided data on scales that would be otherwise unachievable. Harmonia axyridis has successfully been used as a model invasive alien species and has been the inspiration for global collaborations at various scales. There is considerable scope to expand the research and associated collaborations, particularly to increase the breadth of parallel studies conducted in the native and invaded regions. Indeed a qualitative comparison of biological traits across the native and invaded range suggests that there are differences which ultimately could influence the population dynamics of this invader. Here we provide an overview of the invasion history and ecology of H. axyridis globally with consideration of future research perspectives. We reflect broadly on the contributions of such research to our understanding of invasion biology while also informing policy and people

Inleiding : een canon?

De inleiding tot deze 'canon van de belangrijkste Nederlandstalige rechtsgeleerde boeken' (zestiende-twintigste eeuw) verduidelijkt hoe de lijst van 67 boeken tot stand kwam, welke info per boek wordt gegeven en welke algemene vaststellingen kunnen gemaakt worden over de rechtsleer in de Nederlanden

Rechtsgeschiedenis verbeeld

Series of articles on legal iconography: treaty remembrance coins, allegories of justice, testators, town hall decorations, portraits of jurists, executions..

Juristen die schreven en bleven : Nederlandstalige rechtsgeleerde klassiekers

This book lists the 67 most important juridical books published in Dutch in the Low Countries between the sixteenth and the twentieth century. For each book a short biography of the author is given, followed by practical information on the book's first edition, its content, its method and its relevance for the evolution of legal doctrin in the Low Countries (today Belgium and the Netherlands)

Package ‘prevalence’

Tools for prevalence assessment studies. IMPORTANT: the truePrev functions in the prevalence package call on JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler), which therefore has to be available on the user’s system. JAGS can be downloaded from http://mcmc-jags.sourceforge.net

Methodology for assessing determinants of manure use in urban areas of Africa

The objectives of this study were to identify the major determinants (e.g. zootechnical and socio-economic parameters) of manure management practised by urban livestock keepers. Data were collected from four single-visit, multi-object surveys in three cities of Africa. The livestock keepers were classified either as 'good user' or 'bad user' of manure depending on how they use the manure. The results of this study indicate that the habit of manure utilization shows geographical differences. In general, livestock keepers engaged in agricultural activities are good manure users. Furthermore, manual workers, traders or the self-employed are better manure users than other professional groups. The manure utilization varies also in function of the livestock numbers. In Brazzaville, the habit of selling animals influenced manure management positively. Experience of keeping livestock before the civil war in Brazzaville was also a determining factor of manure use in the post-war urban livestock keeping in 2001. When designing policies to reduce the environmental effects of urban livestock keeping, the highlighted factors can assist city planners to understand how urban livestock keepers use manure. Using the non-parametric classification tree method CART, two approaches were used to select an optimal classification of 'bad' manure users: the 'Cook and Goldman rule' and the 'Classification with different misclassification cost ratios' method. The optimal tree was selected by using receiver operating characteristics curve information. This method can be useful in assessing other aspects of waste management