U.S. Billion-ton Update: Biomass Supply for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry

The Report, Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry: The Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual Supply (generally referred to as the Billion-Ton Study or 2005 BTS), was an estimate of “potential” biomass within the contiguous United States based on numerous assumptions about current and future inventory and production capacity, availability, and technology. In the 2005 BTS, a strategic analysis was undertaken to determine if U.S. agriculture and forest resources have the capability to potentially produce at least one billion dry tons of biomass annually, in a sustainable manner—enough to displace approximately 30% of the country’s present petroleum consumption. To ensure reasonable confidence in the study results, an effort was made to use relatively conservative assumptions. However, for both agriculture and forestry, the resource potential was not restricted by price. That is, all identified biomass was potentially available, even though some potential feedstock would more than likely be too expensive to actually be economically available. In addition to updating the 2005 study, this report attempts to address a number of its shortcoming

Natural Resources Research Institute Technical Report

Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota Duluth; Prepared for: St. Louis County.The goal of this project is to organize and analyze the Wood5 data set to aid in the formulation of forest management recommendations in St Louis County. Collection of Wood5 data has been ongoing since the start of the soil survey. The purpose of the Wood5 project is to collect detailed soil and forest growth data on a variety of soil and forest cover types to develop relationships between soil characteristics and forest growth

Natural Resources Research Institute Technical Report

There are a variety of ways to manage red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) ranging from intensive management of fully-stocked stands for the primary purpose of timber production to less intensive approaches aimed at increasing landscape diversity and wildlife habitat. A long history of field research in the Lake States exists with studies beginning in the early 1930s and continuing to the present time. The purpose of this document is to highlight the implications to management during the early years of the rotation building upon existing knowledge developed by the USDA Forest Service and the University of Minnesota and provide additional information based on results of recent studies on stand productivity and mechanical thinning in younger stands in Minnesota done at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, Natural Resources Research Institute. In addition to biological effects, information is provided to estimate site productivity, the expected age at first thinning and the effect of thinning method on harvest economics at first-thinning. While most of the research highlighted in this document is based on study sites in Minnesota, we expect that this information is applicable to other areas in the northcentral region of the United States. This document is organized in a sequential order following stages of stand development. This is done to highlight those points in time when decisions need to be made and to highlight effects of those decisions on stand production and timing of thinning operations. Also, our analyses rely heavily on the RP 2005 growth and management model developed by Buckman et.al. (2006) to show the effect of various management options on stand growth and the reader is encouraged to use this tool to understand various management options in red pine. This model can be downloaded at: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/9031. In addition to the several management guides and other literature, the reader is encouraged to read the document by Buckman et.al. (2006) to gain a more thorough understanding of the interrelationships among stand density, early rotation management, growth rate and thinning options. The RP 2005 model attempts to bring these interrelationships together in a mathematical framework and, as such, is a powerful tool in understanding the growth and management of red pine at all ages.MN Department of Natural Resources; Molpus Timberlands; St. Louis County Lands and Minerals; Potlatch Corporation; Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth Laboratories & Administration, 5013 Miller Trunk Highway, Duluth, Minnesota 55811; Coleraine Laboratories, One Gayley Avenue, P.O. Box 188, Coleraine, Minnesota 5572

Natural Resources Research Institute Technical Report

The impact of improved genetics from the University of Minnesota Duluth Natural Resources Research Institute (NRRI) hybrid poplar breeding program on breakeven hybrid poplar wood prices is discussed in this paper. After a review of previous economic analyses, the breakeven prices are presented that would cover costs other than land rent. Then, factors are provided for adjusting the price to reflect the land rental rate for a given location. The breakeven prices are presented both as stumpage and delivered to a mill. Breakeven delivered prices include the stumpage values plus conventional harvest and transportation costs to a hypothetical processing plant. Breakeven land rental rates are also provided at which poplar production would be profitable at recent aspen stumpage prices. The impact of improved genetics from the University of Minnesota Duluth Natural Resources Research Institute (NRRI) hybrid poplar breeding program on breakeven hybrid poplar wood prices is discussed in this paper. After a review of previous economic analyses, the breakeven prices are presented that would cover costs other than land rent. Then, factors are provided for adjusting the price to reflect the land rental rate for a given location. The breakeven prices are presented both as stumpage and delivered to a mill. Breakeven delivered prices include the stumpage values plus conventional harvest and transportation costs to a hypothetical processing plant. Breakeven land rental rates are also provided at which poplar production would be profitable at recent aspen stumpage prices. The analysis is based on a scenario where a biorefinery/bioproducts company owns and/or leases the land, controls the harvest and transportation of the wood, and delivers the wood to their own mill. The evaluation is based on two hybrid poplar annual growth increments: 3.6 dry tons and 5.4 dry tons per acre per year with a 9-, 10-, or 12-year rotation. 3.6 dry tons per acre per year is yield potential with current genotypes. 5.4 tons per acre per year is yield potential with new Gen 1.0 elite clones from our breeding. Stumpage prices without land cost included are lower than aspen stumpage prices for both unimproved and improved clones. Other things being equal, the improved genetics could be capitalized into a $36.37-per-acre increase in the financially permissible rental rate. Carbon credit markets could further improve returns on hybrid poplar plantations.USDA-NIFA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program Sustainable Bioenergy and Bioproducts Challenge Area (Grant No. 2018-68005-27635/Project Accession No. 1015244

Natural Resources Research Institute Technical Report

NRRI developed this Grower’s Guide in partnership with University of Minnesota Extension as part of the Next-Gen Poplars project. This project is a USDA NIFA grant-funded opportunity to advance the genetics, economic analysis, and utilization of hybrid poplars in the midwestern United States.The goal of this Grower’s Guide is to provide practical advice for the establishment and maintenance of hybrid poplar plantations, plantings of trees in rows managed like an agronomic crop to produce fiber and biomass. Hybrid poplar are planted on several continents in a wide variety of applications: examples, in addition to biomass/wood production, include windbreaks, shelterbelts, phytoremediation, mine reclamation, and wastewater treatment. Advice for the establishment of hybrid poplar in these applications should come from other sources, as this guide is focused on growing hybrid poplar in plantation settings. Plantations could be owned by a private landowner or a corporation. Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) show promise to fill specific niches in the world’s developing bioeconomy. These crops, such as eastern cottonwood, hybrid poplar, and hybrid willow, are receiving increasing interest as plantation crops to provide biomass for renewable energy such as combustion for combined heat and power – CHP, biofuels, bio-based chemicals, and bioproducts. Hybrid poplars have also been grown to produce wood for pulp and paper and oriented strand board (OSB) as well as veneer for plywood manufacturing. The selection of hybrid poplar, cottonwood, or willow depends on the region is which they will be grown and the end use

Natural Resources Research Institute Technical Report

Intellectual property in the NRRI hybrid poplar program was analyzed, and elite clones were prioritized for plant patent applications to the USPTO. Clones were selected in two hybrid categories, Populus deltoides x Populus nigra (D x N, DN) and Populus deltoides x Populus deltoides (D x D, DD). Positive traits attributed to these clones include fast and stable growth, broad adaptability (geo-robustness), disease resistance, good rooting ability, good vigor in stoolbeds (cutting orchards), and good performance in phytoremediation applications. Six Generation 1.0 improved clones were selected for possible patenting, four DN and two DD, out of 13,000 1st generation genotypes tested, a selection intensity of 0.0005 (0.05 %). Market size is discussed, a patent strategy is formulated, and a commercialization action plan and timeline compiled. We are working with University of Minnesota Technology Commercialization (TC) on a patenting and licensing evaluation. One improved DN clone has been selected for initial commercialization, a one-page marketing flyer on the clone has been designed, and selected private and public nurseries are being offered free cuttings of the selected clone for propagation testing as a prelude to potential licensing