No Evidence for More Earth-sized Planets in the Habitable Zone of Kepler's M versus FGK Stars

Reliable detections of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone remain elusive in the Kepler sample, even for M dwarfs. The Kepler sample was once thought to contain a considerable number of M dwarf stars ($T_\mathrm{eff} < 4000$ K), which hosted enough Earth-sized ($[0.5,1.5]$ R$_\oplus$) planets to estimate their occurrence rate ($\eta_\oplus$) in the habitable zone. However, updated stellar properties from Gaia have shifted many Kepler stars to earlier spectral type classifications, with most stars (and their planets) now measured to be larger and hotter than previously believed. Today, only one partially-reliable Earth-sized candidate remains in the optimistic habitable zone, and zero in the conservative zone. Here we performed a new investigation of Kepler's Earth-sized planets orbiting M dwarf stars, using occurrence rate models with considerations of updated parameters and candidate reliability. Extrapolating our models to low instellations, we found an occurrence rate of $\eta_\oplus={8.58}_{-8.22}^{+17.94}\%$ for the conservative habitable zone (and ${14.22}_{-12.71}^{+24.96}\%$ for the optimistic), consistent with previous works when considering the large uncertainties. Comparing these estimates to those from similarly comprehensive studies of Sun-like stars, we found that the current Kepler sample does not offer evidence to support an increase in $\eta_\oplus$ from FGK to M stars. While the Kepler sample is too sparse to resolve an occurrence trend between early and mid-to-late M dwarfs for Earth-sized planets, studies including larger planets and/or data from the K2 and TESS missions are well-suited to this task.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; Accepted for publication in A

Scaling K2 VII: Evidence for a high occurrence rate of hot sub-Neptunes at intermediate ages

The NASA K2 mission obtained high precision time-series photometry for four young clusters, including the near-twin 600-800 Myr-old Praesepe and Hyades clusters. Hot sub-Neptunes are highly prone to mass-loss mechanisms, given their proximity to the the host star and the weakly bound gaseous envelopes, and analyzing this population at young ages can provide strong constraints on planetary evolution models. Using our automated transit detection pipeline, we recover 15 planet candidates across the two clusters, including 10 previously confirmed planets. We find a hot sub-Neptune occurrence rate of 79-107% for GKM stars in the Praesepe cluster. This is 2.5-3.5 sigma higher than the occurrence rate of 16.54+1.00-0.98% for the same planets orbiting the ~3-9 Gyr-old GKM field stars observed by K2, even after accounting for the slightly super-solar metallicity ([Fe/H]~0.2 dex) of the Praesepe cluster. We examine the effect of adding ~100 targets from the Hyades cluster, and extending the planet parameter space under examination, and find similarly high occurrence rates in both cases. The high occurrence rate of young, hot sub-Neptunes could indicate either that these planets are undergoing atmospheric evolution as they age, or that planetary systems that formed when the Galaxy was much younger are substantially different than from today. Under the assumption of the atmospheric mass-loss scenario, a significantly higher occurrence rate of these planets at the intermediate ages of Praesepe and Hyades appears more consistent with the core-powered mass loss scenario sculpting the hot sub-Neptune population, compared to the photoevaporation scenario.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, published in A

Using Photometrically-Derived Properties of Young Stars to Refine TESS's Transiting Young Planet Survey Completeness

The demographics of young exoplanets can shed light onto their formation and evolution processes. Exoplanet properties are derived from the properties of their host stars. As such, it is important to accurately characterize the host stars since any systematic biases in their derivation can negatively impact the derivation of planetary properties. Here, we present a uniform catalog of photometrically-derived stellar effective temperatures, luminosities, radii, and masses for 4,865 young (<1 Gyr) stars in 31 nearby clusters and moving groups within 200 pc. We compared our photometrically-derived properties to a subset of those derived from spectra, and found them to be in good agreement. We also investigated the effect of stellar properties on the detection efficiency of transiting short-period young planets with TESS as calculated in Fernandes et al. 2022, and found an overall increase in the detection efficiency when the new photometrically derived properties were taken into account. Most notably, there is a 1.5 times increase in the detection efficiencies for sub-Neptunes/Neptunes (1.8-6 Re) implying that, for our sample of young stars, better characterization of host star properties can lead to the recovery of more small transiting planets. Our homogeneously derived catalog of updated stellar properties, along with a larger unbiased stellar sample and more detections of young planets, will be a crucial input to the accurate estimation of the occurrence rates of young short-period planets.Comment: 16 pages, 5 Figures, 3 Tables. Revised and resubmitted to AJ after a favorable referee report. Co-First Author

Stellar Characterization and Radius Inflation of Hyades M Dwarf Stars From the APOGEE Survey

We present a spectroscopic analysis of a sample of 48 M dwarf stars ($0.2 M_{\odot}< M < 0.6 M_{\odot}$) from the Hyades open cluster using high-resolution H-band spectra from the SDSS/APOGEE survey. Our methodology adopts spectrum synthesis with LTE MARCS model atmospheres, along with the APOGEE DR17 line list, to determine effective temperatures, surface gravities, metallicities, and projected rotational velocities. The median metallicity obtained for the Hyades M dwarfs is [M/H]= 0.09$\pm$0.03 dex, indicating a small internal uncertainty and good agreement with optical results for Hyades red-giants. Overall, the median radii are larger than predicted by stellar models by 1.6$\pm$2.3\% and 2.4$\pm$2.3\%, relative to a MIST and DARTMOUTH isochrone, respectively. We emphasize, however, that these isochrones are different and the fractional radius inflation for the fully- and partially-convective regimes have distinct behaviors depending on the isochrone. Using a MIST isochrone there is no evidence of radius inflation for the fully convective stars, while for the partially convective M-dwarfs the radii are inflated by 2.7$\pm$2.1\%, which is in agreement with predictions from models that include magnetic fields. For the partially-convective stars, rapid-rotators present on average higher inflation levels than slow-rotators. The comparison with SPOTS isochrone models indicates that the derived M dwarf radii can be explained by accounting for stellar spots in the photosphere of the stars, with 76\% of the studied M dwarfs having up to 20\% spot coverage, and the most inflated stars with $\sim$20 -- 40\% spot coverage.Comment: Accepted for publication by The Astrophysical Journal (ApJ

Bioverse: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Capabilities of Extremely Large Telescopes to Probe Earth-like O2 Levels in Nearby Transiting Habitable-zone Exoplanets

Molecular oxygen is a strong indicator of life on Earth and may indicate biological processes on exoplanets too. Recent studies proposed that Earth-like O _2 levels might be detectable on nearby exoplanets using high-resolution spectrographs on future extremely large telescopes (ELTs). However, these studies did not consider constraints like relative velocities, planet occurrence rates, and target observability. We expanded on past studies by creating a homogeneous catalog of 286,391 main-sequence stars within 120 pc using Gaia DR3 and used the Bioverse framework to simulate the likelihood of finding nearby transiting Earth analogs. We also simulated a survey of M dwarfs within 20 pc accounting for η _⊕ estimates, transit probabilities, relative velocities, and target observability to determine how long ELTs and theoretical 50–100 m ground-based telescopes need to observe to probe for Earth-like O _2 levels with an R = 100,000 spectrograph. This would only be possible within 50 yr for up to ∼21% of nearby M-dwarf systems if a suitable transiting habitable-zone Earth analog was discovered, assuming signals from every observable partial transit from each ELT can be combined. If so, Earth-like O _2 levels could be detectable on TRAPPIST-1 d–g within 16–55 yr, respectively, and about half that time with an R = 500,000 spectrograph. These results have important implications for whether ELTs can survey nearby habitable-zone Earth analogs for O _2 via transmission spectroscopy. Our work provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the ground-based capabilities to search for life beyond the solar system

Using Photometrically Derived Properties of Young Stars to Refine TESS’s Transiting Young Planet Survey Completeness

The demographics of young exoplanets can shed light on their formation and evolution processes. Exoplanet properties are derived from the properties of their host stars. As such, it is important to accurately characterize the host stars since any systematic biases in their derivation can negatively impact the derivation of planetary properties. Here we present a uniform catalog of photometrically derived stellar effective temperatures, luminosities, radii, and masses for 4865 young (<1 Gyr) stars in 31 nearby clusters and moving groups within 200 pc. We compared our photometrically derived properties to a subset of those derived from spectra and found them to be in good agreement. We also investigated the effect of stellar properties on the detection efficiency of transiting short-period young planets with TESS as calculated in Fernandes et al. (2022) and found an overall increase in the detection efficiency when the new photometrically derived properties were taken into account. Most notably, there is a 1.5 × increase in the detection efficiencies for sub-Neptunes/Neptunes (1.8–6 R _⊕ ) implying that, for our sample of young stars, better characterization of host star properties can lead to the recovery of more small transiting planets. Our homogeneously derived catalog of updated stellar properties, along with a larger unbiased stellar sample and more detections of young planets, will be a crucial input to the accurate estimation of the occurrence rates of young short-period planets