The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach

We study the aggregate gap between intended and actual fertility in 19 European countries and the US based on a cohort approach. This complements prior research that had mainly used a period approach. We compare the mean intended number of children among young women aged 20 to 24 (born in the early 1970s), meas ured during the 1990s in the Fertility and Family Surveys, with data on completed fertility in the same cohorts around age 40. In a similar manner, we compare the share who state that they do not want a child with actual cohort childlessness. Our exploration is informed by the cognitive-social model of fertility intentions devel- oped by Bachrach and Morgan (Popul Dev Rev 39(3):459-485, 2013). In all coun- tries, women eventually had, on average, fewer children than the earlier expectations in their birth cohort, and more often than intended, they remained childless. The results reveal distinct regional patterns, which are most apparent for childlessness. The gap between intended and actual childlessness is widest in the Southern Euro- pean and the German-speaking countries and smallest in the Central and Eastern European countries. Additionally, we analyze the aggregate intentions-fertility gap among women with different levels of education. The gap is largest among highly educated women in most countries studied and the educational gradient varies by region, most distinctively for childlessness. Differences between countries suggest that contextual factors-norms about parenthood, work-family policies, unemployment-shape women's fertility goals, total family size, and the gap between them

Religion and fertility ideals, intentions and behaviour: a comparative study of European countries

European demographers rarely study religion as a determinant of contemporary demographic behaviour. One reason could be the secularisation observed in European countries, implying that the effect of religiosity has been diminishing. This paper aims to show that religion can have an important impact on ideals, intentions and behaviour related to fertility. First we discuss recent trends in religiosity. We base our ensuing hypotheses on three deliberations why religion may have a bearing on fertility: importance of religious teaching, effect of social capital and function of religion to decrease uncertainty. Using FFS data we examine the influence of several measures of religiosity on the ideal number of children and intentions to have a second and third child, as well as on the expected and actual number of children. We find that all measures of religiosity are in general related to a higher ideal number of children, higher odds to intend another child and higher expected and actual number of children. Participation in religious services turns out to be slightly more salient than affiliation and self-assessed religiosity. We also discover that the effect of religion on ideals is more pronounced than its effect on intentions. Ideals stay further away from behaviour than intentions do and hence the influence of religion is intermediated by other social systems.

Solving Hard Control Problems in Voting Systems via Integer Programming

Voting problems are central in the area of social choice. In this article, we investigate various voting systems and types of control of elections. We present integer linear programming (ILP) formulations for a wide range of NP-hard control problems. Our ILP formulations are flexible in the sense that they can work with an arbitrary number of candidates and voters. Using the off-the-shelf solver Cplex, we show that our approaches can manipulate elections with a large number of voters and candidates efficiently

Relation-algebraic modeling and solution of chessboard independence and domination problems

AbstractWe describe a simple computing technique for solving independence and domination problems on rectangular chessboards. It rests upon relational modeling and uses the BDD-based specific purpose computer algebra system RelView for the evaluation of the relation-algebraic expressions that specify the problems’ solutions and the visualization of the computed results. The technique described in the paper is very flexible and especially appropriate for experimentation. It can easily be applied to other chessboard problems

Childcare and housework during the first lockdown in Austria: Traditional division or new roles?

Objective: This study analyses how much time mothers and fathers spent on childcare and housework during and after the first COVID-19 lockdown in Austria (starting in mid-March 2020) and how they distributed that time between themselves. Background: Parents needed to reallocate care work between themselves as, on the one hand, kindergartens and schools closed for two months and, on the other hand, employment-related changes arose, e.g., working from home. The results are discussed in light of major theories that address the division of care work: the time availability approach and gender role theory. Method: This study employs data from the Austrian Corona Panel Project 2020/21, a web-based survey using quota sampling, which started in the second week of the first lockdown (n=372 for respondents in couples with children below age 15). Altogether, seven waves contain information about time spent on childcare and housework; three were conducted during or right after the first lockdown (April and May 2020) and four between June 2020 and February 2021. Linear and logistic regression models were used. Results: Within the whole study period, parents' total workload (care work and employment) was highest during the first lockdown. The workload was greatest - an average of 15 hours on weekdays - among mothers with children below age six. While mothers shouldered more care work in most families, partners shared tasks equally in around one third of them. Care time depended on employment hours, especially for fathers. Yet, it was higher for mothers with the same level of employment as fathers. Conclusion: The COVID-19-related employment changes led to a rise in arrangements that rarely existed before in Austria, e.g., fathers working part-time. Consequently, some fathers took on new roles, especially when they worked from home (mostly among the higher educated), were non-employed (mostly among the lower educated) or worked part-time. The paper concludes by discussing whether those experiences may permanently result in more egalitarian gender roles.Fragestellung: Diese Studie untersucht, wie viel Zeit Mütter und Väter während und nach dem ersten COVID-19 Lockdown in Österreich (welcher Mitte März 2020 begann) für Kinderbetreuung und Hausarbeit aufwendeten und wie sie diese Zeit untereinander aufteilten. Hintergrund: Eltern mussten Kinderbetreuungs- und Hausarbeitszeit (Care-Arbeit) neu verteilen, da einerseits Kindergärten und Schulen zwei Monate lang geschlossen blieben, und es andererseits erwerbsbezogene Veränderungen gab, z.B. Homeoffice. Die Ergebnisse werden vor dem Hintergrund zentraler Theorien zur Aufteilung von Care-Arbeit diskutiert: dem "time availability approach" und Geschlechterrollentheorie. Methode: Die Studie verwendet die Daten des Austrian Corona Panel Projects 2020/21, eine webbasierte Umfrage auf Grundlage einer Quotenstichprobe, welche in der zweiten Woche des ersten Lockdowns begann (n=372 Befragte in Paaren mit Kindern unter 15 Jahre). Insgesamt beinhalten sieben Wellen Informationen zu der mit Kinderbetreuung und Hausarbeit verwendeten Zeit; drei davon wurden im oder unmittelbar nach dem ersten Lockdown durchgeführt (April und Mai 2020) und vier zwischen Juni 2020 und Februar 2021. Die Datenauswertung erfolgte mittels linearer und logistischer Regressionsmodelle. Ergebnisse: Innerhalb der gesamten Untersuchungsperiode war die Arbeitsbelastung (Care- und Erwerbsarbeit) der Eltern am höchsten während des ersten Lockdowns. Die Arbeitsbelastung war am größten - im Durchschnitt 15 Stunden pro Wochentag - unter Müttern mit Kindern unter sechs Jahren. Während in der Mehrheit der Familien Mütter mehr Care-Arbeit verrichteten, war die Aufteilung in rund einem Drittel ausgeglichen. Care-Arbeit war abhängig von den Erwerbsarbeitsstunden, vor allem für Väter. Gleichzeitig war sie beim selben Erwerbsausmaß höher für Mütter. Schlussfolgerung: Die COVID-19-bedingten Änderungen in der Erwerbstätigkeit führten zu einem Anstieg in Arrangements, die davor in Österreich kaum existiert hatten, z.B. Teilzeitarbeit von Vätern. Daher nahmen manche Väter neue Rollen ein, vor allem, wenn sie im Homeoffice arbeiteten (vor allem höher gebildete), nicht erwerbstätig waren (vor allem niedriger gebildete) oder in Teilzeit waren. Es wird diskutiert, ob diese Erfahrungen längerfristig zu egalitäreren Geschlechterrollen führen werden

A Relation-algebraic Approach to Simple Games

Simple games are a powerful tool to analyze decision-making and coalition formation in social and political life. In this paper, we present relation-algebraic models of simple games and develop relational algorithms for solving some basic problems of them. In particular, we test certain fundamental properties of simple games (being monotone, proper, respectively strong) and compute specific players (dummies, dictators, vetoers, null players) and coalitions (minimal winning coalitions and vulnerable winning coalitions). We also apply relation-algebra to determine central and dominant players, swingers and power indices (the Banzhaf, Holler-Packel and Deegan-Packel indices). This leads to relation-algebraic specifications, which can be executed with the help of the BDD-based tool RelView after a simple translation into the tool's programming language. In order to demonstrate the visualization facilities of RelView we consider an example of the Catalonian Parliament after the 2003 election.relation algebra; RelView; simple game; winning coalition; swinger; dominant player; central player; power index

Computations on Simple Games using RelView

Simple games are a powerful tool to analyze decision-making and coalition formation in social and political life. In this paper we present relational models of simple games and develop relational algorithms for solving some game-theoretic basic problems. The algorithms immediately can be transformed into the language of the Computer Algebra system RelView and, therefore, the system can be used to solve the problems and to visualize the results of the computations.relational algebra ; RelView ; simple games