Various multistage ensembles for prediction of heating energy consumption

Feedforward neural network models are created for prediction of daily heating energy consumption of a NTNU university campus Gloshaugen using actual measured data for training and testing. Improvement of prediction accuracy is proposed by using neural network ensemble. Previously trained feed-forward neural networks are first separated into clusters, using k-means algorithm, and then the best network of each cluster is chosen as member of an ensemble. Two conventional averaging methods for obtaining ensemble output are applied; simple and weighted. In order to achieve better prediction results, multistage ensemble is investigated. As second level, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with various clustering and membership functions are used to aggregate the selected ensemble members. Feedforward neural network in second stage is also analyzed. It is shown that using ensemble of neural networks can predict heating energy consumption with better accuracy than the best trained single neural network, while the best results are achieved with multistage ensemble

Adaptive Joint Force Packaging (AJFP): a critical analysis

This thesis explores the concept of Adaptive Joint Force Packaging (AJFP). Provided first is an overview of the concept itself, including the factors behind its development, the manner and scope of its implementation, and the benefits proponents claim it will bring. Also reviewed are the various concerns and criticisms that AJFP has created within the defense establishment. Among those are reservations about the concept's impact on unit integrity and doctrine, the role of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Joint Staff; training budgets; and traditional combat capability. Operation to AJFP also involves perceptions that it will create an additional layer of bureaucracy, will conflict with other, uncoordinated, force packaging initiatives, will limit force-employment options to a fixed 'menu,' and, finally, will never come to fruition. The discussion of pros and cons on both sides of the AJFP debate is followed by an overall analysis and evaluation. It is concluded that, on balance, the AJFP concept has considerable potential for helping the U.S. military adapt to the post-Cold War international security environment and smaller force structure. In particular, AJFP promises to bring a greater degree of effectiveness to U.S. military operations at the lower-end of the conflict spectrum, and allows the peacetime forward presence mission to be addressed by a full range of joint forces.http://archive.org/details/adaptivejointfor1094539661Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited