Risk of selection bias in randomised trials

Background: Selection bias occurs when recruiters selectively enrol patients into the trial based on what the next treatment allocation is likely to be. This can occur even if appropriate allocation concealment is used if recruiters can guess the next treatment assignment with some degree of accuracy. This typically occurs in unblinded trials when restricted randomisation is implemented to force the number of patients in each arm or within each centre to be the same. Several methods to reduce the risk of selection bias have been suggested; however, it is unclear how often these techniques are used in practice. Methods: We performed a review of published trials which were not blinded to assess whether they utilised methods for reducing the risk of selection bias. We assessed the following techniques: (a) blinding of recruiters; (b) use of simple randomisation; (c) avoidance of stratification by site when restricted randomisation is used; (d) avoidance of permuted blocks if stratification by site is used; and (e) incorporation of prognostic covariates into the randomisation procedure when restricted randomisation is used. We included parallel group, individually randomised phase III trials published in four general medical journals (BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, The Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine) in 2010. Results: We identified 152 eligible trials. Most trials (98%) provided no information on whether recruiters were blind to previous treatment allocations. Only 3% of trials used simple randomisation; 63% used some form of restricted randomisation, and 35% did not state the method of randomisation. Overall, 44% of trials were stratified by site of recruitment; 27% were not, and 29% did not report this information. Most trials that did stratify by site of recruitment used permuted blocks (58%), and only 15% reported using random block sizes. Many trials that used restricted randomisation also included prognostic covariates in the randomisation procedure (56%). Conclusions: The risk of selection bias could not be ascertained for most trials due to poor reporting. Many trials which did provide details on the randomisation procedure were at risk of selection bias due to a poorly chosen randomisation methods. Techniques to reduce the risk of selection bias should be more widely implemented

R-parity violating resonant stop production at the Large Hadron Collider

We have investigated the resonant production of a stop at the Large Hadron Collider, driven by baryon number violating interactions in supersymmetry. We work in the framework of minimal supergravity models with the lightest neutralino being the lightest supersymmetric particle which decays within the detector. We look at various dilepton and trilepton final states, with or without b-tags. A detailed background simulation is performed, and all possible decay modes of the lighter stop are taken into account. We find that higher stop masses are sometimes easier to probe, through the decay of the stop into the third or fourth neutralino and their subsequent cascades. We also comment on the detectability of such signals during the 7 TeV run, where, as expected, only relatively light stops can be probed. Our conclusion is that the resonant process may be probed, at both 10 and 14 TeV, with the R-parity violating coupling {\lambda}"_{312} as low as 0.05, for a stop mass of about 1 TeV. The possibility of distinguishing between resonant stop production and pair-production is also discussed.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, 6 tables; Version accepted by JHE

Linear Estimation of Location and Scale Parameters Using Partial Maxima

Consider an i.i.d. sample X^*_1,X^*_2,...,X^*_n from a location-scale family, and assume that the only available observations consist of the partial maxima (or minima)sequence, X^*_{1:1},X^*_{2:2},...,X^*_{n:n}, where X^*_{j:j}=max{X^*_1,...,X^*_j}. This kind of truncation appears in several circumstances, including best performances in athletics events. In the case of partial maxima, the form of the BLUEs (best linear unbiased estimators) is quite similar to the form of the well-known Lloyd's (1952, Least-squares estimation of location and scale parameters using order statistics, Biometrika, vol. 39, pp. 88-95) BLUEs, based on (the sufficient sample of) order statistics, but, in contrast to the classical case, their consistency is no longer obvious. The present paper is mainly concerned with the scale parameter, showing that the variance of the partial maxima BLUE is at most of order O(1/log n), for a wide class of distributions.Comment: This article is devoted to the memory of my six-years-old, little daughter, Dionyssia, who leaved us on August 25, 2010, at Cephalonia isl. (26 pages, to appear in Metrika

Admittance Method for Estimating Local Field Potentials Generated in a Multi-Scale Neuron Model of the Hippocampus

Significant progress has been made toward model-based prediction of neral tissue activation in response to extracellular electrical stimulation, but challenges remain in the accurate and efficient estimation of distributed local field potentials (LFP). Analytical methods of estimating electric fields are a first-order approximation that may be suitable for model validation, but they are computationally expensive and cannot accurately capture boundary conditions in heterogeneous tissue. While there are many appropriate numerical methods of solving electric fields in neural tissue models, there isn\u27t an established standard for mesh geometry nor a well-known rule for handling any mismatch in spatial resolution. Moreover, the challenge of misalignment between current sources and mesh nodes in a finite-element or resistor-network method volume conduction model needs to be further investigated. Therefore, using a previously published and validated multi-scale model of the hippocampus, the authors have formulated an algorithm for LFP estimation, and by extension, bidirectional communication between discretized and numerically solved volume conduction models and biologically detailed neural circuit models constructed in NEURON. Development of this algorithm required that we assess meshes of (i) unstructured tetrahedral and grid-based hexahedral geometries as well as (ii) differing approaches for managing the spatial misalignment of current sources and mesh nodes. The resulting algorithm is validated through the comparison of Admittance Method predicted evoked potentials with analytically estimated LFPs. Establishing this method is a critical step toward closed-loop integration of volume conductor and NEURON models that could lead to substantial improvement of the predictive power of multi-scale stimulation models of cortical tissue. These models may be used to deepen our understanding of hippocampal pathologies and the identification of efficacious electroceutical treatments

A comparison of methods to adjust for continuous covariates in the analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Although covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomised trials can be beneficial, adjustment for continuous covariates is complicated by the fact that the association between covariate and outcome must be specified. Misspecification of this association can lead to reduced power, and potentially incorrect conclusions regarding treatment efficacy. METHODS: We compared several methods of adjustment to determine which is best when the association between covariate and outcome is unknown. We assessed (a) dichotomisation or categorisation; (b) assuming a linear association with outcome; (c) using fractional polynomials with one (FP1) or two (FP2) polynomial terms; and (d) using restricted cubic splines with 3 or 5 knots. We evaluated each method using simulation and through a re-analysis of trial datasets. RESULTS: Methods which kept covariates as continuous typically had higher power than methods which used categorisation. Dichotomisation, categorisation, and assuming a linear association all led to large reductions in power when the true association was non-linear. FP2 models and restricted cubic splines with 3 or 5 knots performed best overall. CONCLUSIONS: For the analysis of randomised trials we recommend (1) adjusting for continuous covariates even if their association with outcome is unknown; (2) keeping covariates as continuous; and (3) using fractional polynomials with two polynomial terms or restricted cubic splines with 3 to 5 knots when a linear association is in doubt

MFV Reductions of MSSM Parameter Space

The 100+ free parameters of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) make it computationally difficult to compare systematically with data, motivating the study of specific parameter reductions such as the cMSSM and pMSSM. Here we instead study the reductions of parameter space implied by using minimal flavour violation (MFV) to organise the R-parity conserving MSSM, with a view towards systematically building in constraints on flavour-violating physics. Within this framework the space of parameters is reduced by expanding soft supersymmetry-breaking terms in powers of the Cabibbo angle, leading to a 24-, 30- or 42-parameter framework (which we call MSSM-24, MSSM-30, and MSSM-42 respectively), depending on the order kept in the expansion. We provide a Bayesian global fit to data of the MSSM-30 parameter set to show that this is manageable with current tools. We compare the MFV reductions to the 19-parameter pMSSM choice and show that the pMSSM is not contained as a subset. The MSSM-30 analysis favours a relatively lighter TeV-scale pseudoscalar Higgs boson and $\tan \beta \sim 10$ with multi-TeV sparticles.Comment: 2nd version, minor comments and references added, accepted for publication in JHE

Diagnosing Spin at the LHC via Vector Boson Fusion

We propose a new technique for determining the spin of new massive particles that might be discovered at the Large Hadron Collider. The method relies on pair-production of the new particles in a kinematic regime where the vector boson fusion production mechanism is enhanced. For this regime, we show that the distribution of the leading jets as a function of their relative azimuthal angle can be used to distinguish spin-0 from spin-1/2 particles. We illustrate this effect by considering the particular cases of (i) strongly-interacting, stable particles and (ii) supersymmetric particles carrying color charge. We argue that this method should be applicable in a wide range of new physics scenarios.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Integrating modes of policy analysis and strategic management practice : requisite elements and dilemmas

There is a need to bring methods to bear on public problems that are inclusive, analytic, and quick. This paper describes the efforts of three pairs of academics working from three different though complementary theoretical foundations and intervention backgrounds (i.e., ways of working) who set out together to meet this challenge. Each of the three pairs had conducted dozens of interventions that had been regarded as successful or very successful by the client groups in dealing with complex policy and strategic problems. One approach focused on leadership issues and stakeholders, another on negotiating competitive strategic intent with attention to stakeholder responses, and the third on analysis of feedback ramifications in developing policies. This paper describes the 10 year longitudinal research project designed to address the above challenge. The important outcomes are reported: the requisite elements of a general integrated approach and the enduring puzzles and tensions that arose from seeking to design a wide-ranging multi-method approach

Detecting microRNA binding and siRNA off-target effects from expression data.

Sylamer is a method for detecting microRNA target and small interfering RNA off-target signals in 3' untranslated regions from a ranked gene list, sorted from upregulated to downregulated, after a microRNA perturbation or RNA interference experiment. The output is a landscape plot that tracks occurrence biases using hypergeometric P-values for all words across the gene ranking. We demonstrated the utility, speed and accuracy of this approach on several datasets

Chandrasekhar-Kendall functions in astrophysical dynamos

Some of the contributions of Chandrasekhar to the field of magnetohydrodynamics are highlighted. Particular emphasis is placed on the Chandrasekhar-Kendall functions that allow a decomposition of a vector field into right- and left-handed contributions. Magnetic energy spectra of both contributions are shown for a new set of helically forced simulations at resolutions higher than what has been available so far. For a forcing function with positive helicity, these simulations show a forward cascade of the right-handed contributions to the magnetic field and nonlocal inverse transfer for the left-handed contributions. The speed of inverse transfer is shown to decrease with increasing value of the magnetic Reynolds number.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, proceedings of the Chandrasekhar Centenary Conference, to be published in PRAMANA - Journal of Physic