Job Stability Trends, Layoffs and Quits - An Empirical Analysis for West Germany

This paper studies signs and reasons of decline of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the longitudinal German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-1997 (about to be extended until 1999), we look at two measures for job stability. Based on repeated cross sectional data we first show that medium elapsed tenure declined for men. Secondly, we find that the measure of completed job duration can efficiently be used, to distinguish reasons for job termination and to surpass the problem of right censoring. Estimating the popular proportional Cox hazard model with competing risks, we show that the decline in stability of jobs of men beginning after 1984 can be attributed primarily to an increase in layoffs. We will extend the analysis by taking unobserved heterogeneity into account, exploiting the presence of multiple spells in the data.. Furthermore, we will include jobs which started before 1985 into the multivariate analysis by using a stock sampling approach.Job stability, labor mobility, layoffs, duration analysis

The Introduction of a Short-Term Earnings-Related Parental Leave Benefit System and Differential Employment Effects

German family policy underwent a reform in 2007, when the new instrument of "Elterngeld" replaced the previous "Erziehungsgeld". The transfer programs differ in various dimensions. We study the effects on the labor supply of young mothers, by comparing behavior before and after the reform. We separately consider women of high and low incomes, which were treated differently under the old "Erziehungsgeld"-regime, and differentiate the periods before and after the expiration of transfer receipt. Our results mainly confirm expectations based on a labor supply framework.Female labor supply, fertility, child subsidy, parents money

Female labor supply and parental leave benefits – the causal effect of paying higher transfers for a shorter period of time

We study the labor supply effects of a major change in child-subsidy policy in Germany in 2007 designed to both increase fertility and shorten birth-related employment interruptions. The reform involved a move from a means-tested maternity leave benefit system that paid a maximum of 300 Euro for up to two years to an income dependent benefit system that replaced two third of the pre-birth income for at most one year. As the reform took place very recently, we estimate the labor supply effect by using data drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel on the intention of women to return to the labor market; notably whether women are likely to return and whether they intend to return quickly. Our results show that the reform yields most of the intended effects: The fraction of mothers who responded that they were going to return to the labor market within a year since the interview increased by 14 percentage points.Female labor supply; fertility; child subsidy; parents money

Female Labor Supply and Parental Leave Benefits: The Causal Effect of Paying Higher Transfers for a Shorter Period of Time

We study the labor supply effects of a change in child-subsidy policy designed to both increase fertility and shorten birth-related employment interruptions. The reform yields most of the intended effects.female labor supply, fertility, child subsidy, parents money

Female Labor Supply and Parental Leave Benefits: The Causal Effect of Paying Higher Transfers for a Shorter Period of Time

We study the labor supply effects of a change in child-subsidy policy designed to both increase fertility and shorten birth-related employment interruptions. The reform yields most of the intended effects.female labor supply, fertility, child subsidy, parents money

Zur Lehrstellensituation in Deutschland. Bestimmungsgrößen des Angebots an Ausbildungsplätzen

In den letzten Jahren ging das Angebot an Ausbildungsplätzen in Westdeutschland kontinuierlich zurück. Für das beginnende Ausbildungsjahr wird dort erstmals seit Mitte der 80er Jahre wieder eine Überschußnachfrage nach Lehrstellen erwartet. In Anbetracht der bereits chronischen Lehrstellenknappheit in Ostdeutschland hat sich damit der Problemdruck zusätzlich verschärft. Das insgesamt geringe Angebot an Ausbildungs-plätzen läßt sich im wesentlichen zurückführen auf die schwache wirtschaftliche Wachstumsdynamik und die gestiegenen Kosten der Ausbildung, hauptsächlich bedingt durch eine starke Zunahme der Ausbildungsvergütung. Gesunkene Kosten der Nichtausbildung sowie verändertes Bildungsverhalten und neue Qualifikationsanforderungen dürften diese Entwicklung zusätzlich verstärkt haben. Um ein entsprechendes Ungleichgewicht in den nächsten Jahren zu vermeiden, werden aus ökonomischer Sicht primär drei direkt wirkende Lösungsmöglichkeiten diskutiert: die Einführung einer Ausbildungsumlage, eine bevorzugte Vergabe öffentlicher Aufträge an ausbildende Unternehmen sowie eine Senkung der Ausbildungsvergütung. Aufgrund der damit verbundenen Probleme bei der Ausgestaltung ist eine Umlagelösung zumindest in der derzeitigen wirtschaftlichen Situation als ungeeignet einzustufen. Die Vergabelösung bevorzugt einseitig und ineffizient Unternehmen, die hauptsächlich von öffentlichen Aufträgen leben. Eine Senkung der Ausbildungsvergütung ist dagegen relativ einfach durchführbar und auch angesichts der Tatsache vertretbar, daß die Ausbildungsvergütung in der Vergangenheit überproportional zum tariflichen Einkommen aller Beschäftigten gestiegen ist.

Active labour market policy effects for women in Europe - a survey

We survey the recent literature on the effects of active labor market policies on individual labor market outcomes like employment and income, for adult female individuals without work in European countries. We consider skilltraining programs, monitoring and sanctions, job search assistance, and employment subsidies. The results are remarkably uniform across studies. We relate the results to the relevant level of female labor force participation.Job search, female labor supply, wages, unemployment, schooling, training,

Evaluating the Dynamic Employment Effects of Training Programs in East Germany Using Conditional Difference-in-Differences

This paper evaluates the effects of Public Sponsored Training in East Germany in the context of reiterated treatments. Selection bias based on observed characteristics is corrected for by applying kernel matching based on the propensity score. We control for further selection and the presence of Ashenfelter's Dip before the program with conditional difference-in-differences estimators. Training as a first treatment shows insignificant effects on the transition rates. The effect of program sequences and the incremental effect of a second program on the reemployment probability are insignificant. However, the incremental effect on the probability to remain employed is slightly positive. --Evaluation of active labor market policy in East Germany,nonparametric matching,conditional difference-in-differences,employment dynamics

Active labor market policy effects for women in Europe - a survey

We survey the recent literature on the effects of active labor market policies on individual labor market outcomes like employment and income, for adult female individuals without work in European countries. We consider skill-training programs, monitoring and sanctions, job search assistance, and employment subsidies. The results are remarkably uniform across studies. We relate the results to the relevant level of female labor force participation.Job search; female labor supply; wages; unemployment; schooling; training; monitoring; participation

From Giving Birth to Paid Labor: The Effects of Adult Education for Prime-Aged Mothers

Women without work after childbirth are at risk of losing their connection to the labor market. However, they may participate in adult education programs. We analyze the effect of this on the duration to work and on the wage rate, by applying conditional difference-in-differences approaches. We use Swedish matched longitudinal register data sets covering the full population. The Swedish adult education program is unprecedented in its size, and enrollment is universally available at virtually no cost. We focus on low-skilled women who have recently given birth. We take account of program accessibility, selection issues, course heterogeneity, the income received during adult education, parental leave, and child care fees. To understand the enrollment decision from the mothers' point of view, we use the estimates to calibrate a job search model.evaluation of adult education, job search model, female labor supply, wages, participation, unemployment, schooling, conditional difference-in-differences