Reporting of lifetime fractures: methodological considerations and results from the Thai cohort study

OBJECTIVES To provide estimates of fracture incidence among young adults in Thailand. DESIGN Cross-sectional analysis of a large national cohort. SETTING Thailand. PARTICIPANTS A total of 60 569 study participants residing nationwide responded to the 2009 follow-up survey; 55% were women and median age was 34 years (range 19-92). OUTCOME MEASURES Self-reported lifetime fractures, along with age at fracture. Fracture incidence rates per person-year were then compared using lifetime fracture reports, and again selecting only fractures reported for the last year. Incidence rates were compared by age and sex. RESULTS 18 010 lifetime fractures were reported; 11 645(65%) by men. Lifetime fracture prevalence was 30% for men and 15% for women. Lifetime incidence per 10 000 person-years was 83; analysing only fractures from the last year yielded a corresponding incidence rate of 187. For ages 21-30, fractures per 10 000 person-years were more common among men than women (283 (95% CI 244 to 326) and 150 (130 to 173), respectively); with increasing age, rates decreased among men and increased among women (for ages 51-60, 97 (58 to 151) and 286 (189 to 417), respectively). CONCLUSIONS Large-scale surveys provide a feasible method for establishing relative fracture incidence among informative subgroups in a population. Limiting analyses to fractures reported to have occurred recently minimises bias due to poor recall. The pattern of self-reported fracture incidence among Thais aged 20-60 was similar to that reported for Western countries: high falling rates in young men and high rising rates in older women.The Thai Cohort Study is funded by the International Collaborative Research Grants Scheme with joint grants from the Wellcome Trust UK (GR071587MA) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC; 268055), and as a global health grant from the NHMRC (585426)

The impact of the Thai motorcycle transition on road traffic injury: Thai cohort study results

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of motorcycle to car transitioning and urbanisation on traffic injury rates in Thailand. DESIGN Analysis of two consecutive surveys of a large national cohort study. SETTING Thailand. PARTICIPANTS The data derived from 57,154 Thai Cohort Study (TCS) participants who provided relevant data on both the 2005 and 2009 surveys. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES Motorcycle and car traffic crash injury self-reported in 2009, with twelve months' recall. RESULTS In 2009, 5608(10%) participants reported a traffic crash injury. Most crashes involved a motorcycle (74%). Car access increased and motorcycle use decreased between 2005 and 2009. Among those who used a motorcycle at both time points, traffic injury incidence was 2.8 times greater compared to those who did not use a motorcycle at either time point. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test longitudinal and cross sectional factors associated with traffic crash injury: in the adjusted model, cars were negatively and motorcycles positively associated with injury. Living in an urban area was not injury protective in the adjusted model of traffic crash injury. CONCLUSIONS Ongoing urbanisation in Thailand can be expected to lead to further reductions in road traffic injuries based on transition from motorcycles to cars in urban areas. Cities, however, do not provide an intrinsically safer traffic environment. To accommodate a safe transition to car use in Thailand, traffic infrastructural changes anticipating the growing car density in urban areas is warranted.The Thai Cohort Study is funded by the International Collaborative Research Grants Scheme with joint grants from the Wellcome Trust UK (GR071587MA) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (268055) and as a global health grant from the NHMRC (585426)

Suicide among those who use mental health services: Suicide risk factors as evidenced from contact-based characteristics in Victoria

ObjectiveThe majority of suicide decedents have had contact with health services in the months before their death. Contacts for mental health services present potential suicide prevention opportunities. This study aims to compare contact-based characteristics among suicide decedents and living controls in the year subsequent to clinical mental health contact with the public health system in Victoria, Australia.MethodsA population-based nested case-control study of those who had mental health-related hospital and community contacts with the public health system was conducted. Cases (suicide decedents) were age and gender-matched to living controls (suicide non-decedents). These records were linked to records of suicides that occurred in the 12 months following the health service contact, between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016. Victorian residents aged 10 years and above were selected at the time of contact (483,933 clients). In the study population, conditional logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between contact-based characteristics and suicide. Socio-demographics and mental health-related hospital and community contact data was retrieved from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset, the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset and the Public Clinical Mental Health database and suicide data from the Victorian Suicide Register.ResultsDuring a six-year period, 1,091 suicide decedents had at least one mental health contact with the public health system in the 12 months preceding the suicide. Overall, controls used more mental health services than cases; however, cases used more mental health services near the event. The relationship between the type of service and suicide differed by service type: hospital admissions and emergency department presentations had a significant positive association with suicide with an OR of 2.09 (95% CI 1.82–2.40) and OR of 1.13 (95% CI 1.05–1.22), and the effect size increased as the event approached, whereas community contacts had a significant negative association with an OR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92–0.94), this negative association diminished in magnitude as the event approached (OR∼1).ConclusionSuicide decedents had less contact with mental health services than non-decedents; however, evidence suggests suicide decedents reach out to mental health services proximal to suicide. An increase in mental health service contact by an individual could be an indication of suicide risk and therefore an opportunity for intervention. Further, community level contact should be further explored as a possible prevention mechanism considering the majority of suicide decedents do not access the public clinical mental health services

Predictors of injury mortality: findings from a large national cohort in Thailand

OBJECTIVE To present predictors of injury mortality by types of injury and by pre-existing attributes or other individual exposures identified at baseline. DESIGN 5-year prospective longitudinal study. SETTING Contemporary Thailand (2005-2010), a country undergoing epidemiological transition. PARTICIPANTS Data derived from a research cohort of 87 037 distance-learning students enrolled at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University residing nationwide. MEASURES Cohort members completed a comprehensive baseline mail-out questionnaire in 2005 reporting geodemographic, behavioural, health and injury data. These responses were matched with national death records using the Thai Citizen ID number. Age-sex adjusted multinomial logistic regression was used to calculate ORs linking exposure variables collected at baseline to injury deaths over the next 5 years. RESULTS Statistically significant predictors of injury mortality were being male (adjustedOR 3.87, 95% CI 2.39 to 6.26), residing in the southern areas (AOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.79), being a current smoker (1.56, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.37), history of drunk driving (AOR 1.49, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.20) and ever having been diagnosed for depression (AOR 1.91, 95% CI 1.00 to 3.69). Other covariates such as being young, having low social support and reporting road injury in the past year at baseline had moderately predictive AORs ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 but were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS We complemented national death registration with longitudinal data on individual, social and health attributes. This information is invaluable in yielding insight into certain risk traits such as being a young male, history of drunk driving and history of depression. Such information could be used to inform injury prevention policies and strategies.This study was supported by the International Collaborative Research Grants Scheme with joint grants from the Wellcome Trust UK (GR071587MA) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (268055), and as a global health grant from the NHMRC (585426)

Determinants of workplace injury among Thai Cohort Study participants

OBJECTIVES: To explore individual determinants of workplace injury among Thai workers. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of a large national cohort. SETTING: Thailand. PARTICIPANTS: Thai Cohort Study participants who responded to the 2009 follow-up survey were included if they reported doing paid work or being self-employed (n=51 751). OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported injury incidence over the past 12 months was calculated. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to test associations between individual determinants and self-reported workplace injury. RESULTS: Workplace injuries were reported by 1317 study participants (2.5%); the incidence was 34 (95% CI 32 to 36)/1000 worker-years for men, and 18 (17–20) for women. Among men working ≥41 h and earning <10 000 Baht, the injury rate was four times higher compared with men working <11 h and earning ≥20 001 Baht; differences in injury rates were less pronounced in women. Multivariate modelling showed that working ≥49 h/week (23%) and working for ≤10 000 Bath/month (37%) were associated with workplace injury. The increase in injury risk with increased working hours did not exceed the risk expected from increased exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in occupational injury rates could be achieved by limiting working hours to 48/week. Particularly for Thai low wage earners and those with longer workdays, there is a need for effective injury preventive programmes.NHMRC (National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia

Identifying cardiac syncope based on clinical history : a literature-based model tested in four independent datasets

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and test a literature-based model for symptoms that associate with cardiac causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: Seven studies (the derivation sample) reporting 652 predictors of cardiac syncope were identified (4 Italian, 1 Swiss, 1 Canadian, and 1 from the United States). From these, 10 criteria were identified as diagnostic predictors. The conditional probability of each predictor was calculated by summation of the reported frequencies. A model of conditional probabilities and a priori probabilities of cardiac syncope was constructed. The model was tested in four datasets of patients with syncope (the test sample) from Calgary (n=670; 21% had cardiac syncope), Amsterdam (n=503; 9%), Milan (n=689; 5%) and Rochester (3877; 11%). In the derivation sample ten variables were significantly associated with cardiac syncope: age, gender, structural heart disease, low number of spells, brief or absent prodrome, supine syncope, effort syncope, and absence of nausea, diaphoresis and blurred vision. Fitting the test datasets to the full model gave C-statistics of 0.87 (Calgary), 0.84 (Amsterdam), 0.72 (Milan) and 0.71 (Rochester). Model sensitivity and specificity were 92% and 68% for Calgary, 86% and 67% for Amsterdam, 76% and 59% for Milan, and 73% and 52% for Rochester. A model with 5 variables (age, gender, structural heart disease, low number of spells, and lack of prodromal symptoms) was as accurate as the total set. CONCLUSION: A simple literature-based Bayesian model of historical criteria can distinguish patients with cardiac syncope from other patients with syncope with moderate accuracy

Impacts of past occupational injury and long-duration compensated work disability on future hospital admissions.

Objectives To investigate changes in the prevalence and nature of hospital admissions towards the end of long-duration workers’ compensation claims (>2 years), and afterwards. To examine differences in hospitalisation when workers’ compensation claims end due to either a 260-week duration limit, or otherwise, and comparisons with hospitalisations of a community comparator. Approach A retrospective cohort study examined 2475 workers, termed the s39 group, whose workers’ compensation ceased due to a 260-week limit in 2017/2018 under s39(1) of the Workers’ Compensation Act New South Wales 2012 legislative amendments (Australia). Comparator groups were injured workers with long-duration claims whose compensation ceased independently of s39 (termed the injured control group, N=3626) and a community group (N=8485). Workers’ compensation records were linked to national social security payments, and hospital admissions. Outcomes describe the prevalence and diagnostic categories of hospital admissions 12 months before, and after, the cessation of workers’ compensation stopped payments. Results Musculoskeletal health conditions were common diagnoses in overnight hospitalisations for injured workers. Single-day hospital care for mental health disorders were more common for injured workers (17% of same-day admissions) than for members of a community control (3% of same-day admissions) across two years. Exiting the workers’ compensation scheme is associated with significantly fewer annual hospital admissions for the injured control group (OR 0.76), but not for the s39 group (OR 1.01). Injured workers with long-duration compensated work disability were admitted to hospital more often than the community comparator group during the year after workers’ compensation stops (s39 group: OR 1.55, injured control group: OR 1.30). Across all study groups, hospital admission was more common for people receiving disability social security benefits and older age groups. Conclusion Policy change in the New South Wales workers’ compensation system introduced a 260-week limit on compensation, leaving workers with an elevated need for hospital care after their compensation ended. Welfare policies that disrupt key determinants of health require dedicated inter-agency provisions to support the elevated health needs of those affected

Predictors of injury mortality: Findings from a large national cohort in Thailand

Objective: To present predictors of injury mortality by types of injury and by pre-existing attributes or other individual exposures identified at baseline

The impact of the thai motorcycle transition on road traffic injury: Thai cohort study results

Objective