Backtracking: Improved methods for identifying the source of a deliberate release of Bacillus anthracis from the temporal and spatial distribution of cases

Reverse epidemiology is a mathematical modelling tool used to ascertain information about the source of a pathogen, given the spatial and temporal distribution of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. In the context of a deliberately released pathogen, such as Bacillus anthracis (the disease-causing organism of anthrax), this can allow responders to quickly identify the location and timing of the release, as well as other factors such as the strength of the release, and the realized wind speed and direction at release. These estimates can then be used to parameterise a predictive mechanistic model, allowing for estimation of the potential scale of the release, and to optimise the distribution of prophylaxis. In this paper we present two novel approaches to reverse epidemiology, and demonstrate their utility in responding to a simulated deliberate release of B. anthracis in ten locations in the UK and compare these to the standard grid-search approach. The two methods - a modified MCMC and a Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network - are able to identify the source location and timing of the release with significantly better accuracy compared to the grid-search approach. Further, the neural network method is able to do inference on new data significantly quicker than either the grid-search or novel MCMC methods, allowing for rapid deployment in time-sensitive outbreaks

A new small-bodied azhdarchoid pterosaur from the Lower Cretaceous of England and its implications for pterosaur anatomy, diversity and phylogeny

BACKGROUND: Pterosaurs have been known from the Cretaceous sediments of the Isle of Wight (southern England, United Kingdom) since 1870. We describe the three-dimensional pelvic girdle and associated vertebrae of a small near-adult pterodactyloid from the Atherfield Clay Formation (lower Aptian, Lower Cretaceous). Despite acknowledged variation in the pterosaur pelvis, previous studies have not adequately sampled or incorporated pelvic characters into phylogenetic analyses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The new specimen represents the new taxon Vectidraco daisymorrisae gen. et sp. nov., diagnosed by the presence of a concavity posterodorsal to the acetabulum and the form of its postacetabular process on the ilium. Several characters suggest that Vectidraco belongs to Azhdarchoidea. We constructed a pelvis-only phylogenetic analysis to test whether the pterosaur pelvis carries a useful phylogenetic signal. Resolution in recovered trees was poor, but they approximately matched trees recovered from analyses of total evidence. We also added Vectidraco and our pelvic characters to an existing total-evidence matrix for pterosaurs. Both analyses recovered Vectidraco within Azhdarchoidea. CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE: The Lower Cretaceous strata of western Europe have yielded members of several pterosaur lineages, but Aptian pterosaurs from western Europe are rare. With a pelvis length of 40 mm, the new animal would have had a total length of c. 350 mm, and a wingspan of c. 750 mm. Barremian and Aptian pterodactyloids from western Europe show that small-bodied azhdarchoids lived alongside ornithocheirids and istiodactylids. This assemblage is similar in terms of which lineages are represented to the coeval beds of Liaoning, China; however, the number of species and specimens present at Liaoning is much higher. While the general phylogenetic composition of western European and Chinese communities appear to have been approximately similar, the differences may be due to different palaeoenvironmental and depositional settings. The western Europe pterodactyloid record may therefore be artificially low in diversity due to preservational factors

Using multi-scale distribution and movement effects along a montane highway to identify optimal crossing locations for a large-bodied mammal community

Roads are a major cause of habitat fragmentation that can negatively affect many mammal populations. Mitigation measures such as crossing structures are a proposed method to reduce the negative effects of roads on wildlife, but the best methods for determining where such structures should be implemented, and how their effects might differ between species in mammal communities is largely unknown. We investigated the effects of a major highway through south-eastern British Columbia, Canada on several mammal species to determine how the highway may act as a barrier to animal movement, and how species may differ in their crossing-area preferences. We collected track data of eight mammal species across two winters, along both the highway and pre-marked transects, and used a multi-scale modeling approach to determine the scale at which habitat characteristics best predicted preferred crossing sites for each species. We found evidence for a severe barrier effect on all investigated species. Freely-available remotely-sensed habitat landscape data were better than more costly, manually-digitized microhabitat maps in supporting models that identified preferred crossing sites; however, models using both types of data were better yet. Further, in 6 of 8 cases models which incorporated multiple spatial scales were better at predicting preferred crossing sites than models utilizing any single scale. While each species differed in terms of the landscape variables associated with preferred/avoided crossing sites, we used a multi-model inference approach to identify locations along the highway where crossing structures may benefit all of the species considered. By specifically incorporating both highway and off-highway data and predictions we were able to show that landscape context plays an important role for maximizing mitigation measurement efficiency. Our results further highlight the need for mitigation measures along major highways to improve connectivity between mammal populations, and illustrate how multi-scale data can be used to identify preferred crossing sites for different species within a mammal community

Going all the way: Politicizing, polarizing, and radicalizing identity offline and online

This essay conceptualizes radicalization as a collective process that evolves within the context of global, national, or local intergroup tensions. People do not radicalize on their own, but as part of a group in which a collective identity is developed. Some members of the group may take a radical activist route to promote or prevent social change. Their interactions with their opponents intensify, while their ideas and beliefs sharpen. In this essay, I propose an interpretative framework to analyze radicalizing collective identities. The framework departs from the notion that supranational processes shape and mold the micro level of (radicalizing) citizens' demands, the meso level of social movements and political parties, and the macro level of national political systems. The answer to questions such as who radicalizes, why people radicalize, and the forms radical action takes lies in the interaction of supranational processes, national political processes, and the context of political mobilization. It is argued that radicalizing identities are key in this process, no radicalization without identification!. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Biomechanics of Running Indicates Endothermy in Bipedal Dinosaurs

One of the great unresolved controversies in paleobiology is whether extinct dinosaurs were endothermic, ectothermic, or some combination thereof, and when endothermy first evolved in the lineage leading to birds. Although it is well established that high, sustained growth rates and, presumably, high activity levels are ancestral for dinosaurs and pterosaurs (clade Ornithodira), other independent lines of evidence for high metabolic rates, locomotor costs, or endothermy are needed. For example, some studies have suggested that, because large dinosaurs may have been homeothermic due to their size alone and could have had heat loss problems, ectothermy would be a more plausible metabolic strategy for such animals.Here we describe two new biomechanical approaches for reconstructing the metabolic rate of 14 extinct bipedal dinosauriforms during walking and running. These methods, well validated for extant animals, indicate that during walking and slow running the metabolic rate of at least the larger extinct dinosaurs exceeded the maximum aerobic capabilities of modern ectotherms, falling instead within the range of modern birds and mammals. Estimated metabolic rates for smaller dinosaurs are more ambiguous, but generally approach or exceed the ectotherm boundary.Our results support the hypothesis that endothermy was widespread in at least larger non-avian dinosaurs. It was plausibly ancestral for all dinosauriforms (perhaps Ornithodira), but this is perhaps more strongly indicated by high growth rates than by locomotor costs. The polarity of the evolution of endothermy indicates that rapid growth, insulation, erect postures, and perhaps aerobic power predated advanced “avian” lung structure and high locomotor costs

Ornamental plants: annual reports and research reviews, 2002

Ohio State University Extension Nursery, Landscape, and Turf Team directory: 2003 / Jack Kerrigan -- Floriculture Industry Roundtable of Ohio: 2003 / Charles Behnke -- Ohio State University Extension 2002 Buckeye Yard and Garden Line evaluation survey / Amy K. Stone and James A. Chatfield -- Weather, environmental, and cultural problems of ornamental plants in Ohio: 2002 / Pamela J. Bennett -- Infectious disease problems of ornamental plants in Ohio: 2002 / James A. Chatfield, Nancy A. Taylor, Erik A. Draper, and Joseph F. Boggs -- A biological calendar for predicting pest activity: six years of plant and insect phenology in Secrest Arboretum / Daniel A. Herms -- Biological suppression of foliar diseases of ornamental plants with composted manures, biosolids, and Trichoderma hamatum 382 / Harry A. J. Hoitink, Carol A. Musselman, Terry L. Moore, Leona E. Horst, Charles R. Krause, Randy A. Zondag, and Hannah Mathers -- Growth and water use by four leguminous tree species in containers on a gravel surface or embedded in mulch / Michael Knee, Daniel K. Struve, Michael H. Bridgewater, and Joseph W. Phillips -- The effects of sprayer configuration on efficacy for the control of scab on crabapple / Charles R. Krause, Richard C. Derksen, Leona E. Horst, Randall Zondag, Ross D. Brazee, Michael G. Klein, and Michael E. Reding -- Update on honeylocust knot / Pierluigi Bonello, Maria Bellizzi, and Harry A. J. Hoitink -- Control of phytophthora and other major diseases of Ericaceous plants / Harry A. J. Hoitink, Steven T. Nameth, and James C. Locke -- Is your landscape mulch going up in smoke? / Larry G. Steward, T. Davis Sydnor, and Bert Bishop -- IR-4 ornamental trials conducted by USDA-ARS in Ohio: 2002 / Betsy A. Anderson, Michael E. Reding, Michael G. Klein, and Charles R. Krause -- Research on black vine weevil and white grubs in ornamental nurseries-in Ohio by USDA-ARS / Michael E. Reding, Michael G. Klein, Ross D. Brazee, and Charles R. Krause -- Herbaceous ornamental field trial results in Clark County, Ohio – 2002 / Pamela J. Bennett -- Results of annual trial gardens at the Cincinnati Zoo and Botanical Garden for 2002 / Dave Dyke -- Ohio State University Learning Garden annual cultivar trials / Monica M. Kmetz-Gonzalez and Claudio C. Pasian -- A collection of crabapple knowledge from Secrest Arboretum: 1993-2002 / Erik A. Draper, James A. Chatfield, and Kenneth D. Cochran -- Key results of the 2001 Ohio Green Industry Survey / Gary Y. Gao, John J. Smith, James A. Chatfield, Joseph F. Boggs, Erik A. Draper, and Hannah Mathers -- The USDA/Agricultural Research Service research weather network in Lake County, Ohio - 2002 update / R. D. Brazee, R. C. Derksen, C. R. Krause, K. A. Williams, D. Lohnes, M. G. Klein, M. Reding, R. Lyons, W. Hendricks, R. Zondag, R. D. Fox, and D. Herms -- The OSU Chadwick Arboretum Learning Gardens / Dr. Steven Still and Annette Duetz -- Choosing soil testing labs / Gary Y, Gao, Maurice E. Watson, Joseph F. Boggs, and James A. Chatfield -- Top horticultural references for a green industry professional's library / Gary Y. Gao and Pamela J. Bennett -- The maples of Secrest Arboretum / Gary W. Graham, James A. Chatfield, and Kenneth D. Cochran -- Deck the halls with boughs from Ollie! / Kenneth D. Cochran and James A. Chatfiel

Active retreat of a Late Weichselian marine-terminating glacier: an example from Melasveit, western Iceland

Large and complete glaciotectonic sequences formed by marine-terminating glaciers are rarely observed on land, hampering our understanding of the behaviour of such glaciers and the processes operating at their margins. During the Late Weichselian in western Iceland, an actively retreating marine-terminating glacier resulted in the large-scale deformation of a sequence of glaciomarine sediments. Due to isostatic rebound since the deglaciation, these formations are now exposed in the coastal cliffs of Belgsholt and Melabakkar-Ásbakkar in the Melasveit district, and provide a detailed record of past glacier dynamics and the inter-relationships between glaciotectonic and sedimentary processes at the margin of this marine-terminating glacier. A comprehensive study of the sedimentology and glaciotectonic architecture of the coastal cliffs reveals a series of subaquatic moraines formed by a glacier advancing from Borgarfjörður to the north of the study area. Analyses of the style of deformation within each of the moraines demonstrate that they were primarily built up by ice-marginal/proglacial thrusting and folding of marine sediments, as well as deposition and subsequent deformation of ice-marginal subaquatic fans. The largest of the moraines exposed in the Melabakkar-Ásbakkar section is over 1.5 km wide and 30 m high and indicates the maximum extent of the Borgarfjörður glacier. Generally, the other moraines in the series become progressively younger towards the north, each designating an advance or stillstand position as the glacier oscillated during its overall northward retreat. During this active retreat, glaciomarine sediments rapidly accumulated in front of the glacier providing material for new moraines. As the glacier finally receded from the area, the depressions between the moraines were infilled by continued glaciomarine sedimentation. This study highlights the dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers and may have implications for the interpretation of their sedimentological and geomorphological records