Openness, Specialization and Growth

This paper explores the link between trade and growth showing how the relationship between openness and per capita income is contingent to the size and the level of export specialization of countries. Measuring openness both in terms of trade volumes and trade policies, and specialization as a index of the position of the distribution of sectoral revealed comparative advantages, the paper - using parametric and semiparametric panel data analysis - offers a precise taxonomy of the effects of openness on growth according to the size and the specialization of countries. The effect of openness on growth is enhanced by the diversification of sectoral exports characterized by comparative advantages, and is reduced by the physical or economic dimension of the country considered. The effect is however nonmonotonic: an increase in openness is relevant for growth at low levels of openness, specialization is effective only at early stages of development, while is differentiation that enhances growth at higher levels of per capita income.International Trade, Specialization, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Openness, Semiparametric Panel data, Cross-country regression

Politics in forgotten governments: the partisan composition of county legislatures and county fiscal policies

County governments are a crucial component of the fabric of American democracy. Yet there has been almost no previous research on the policy effects of the partisan composition of county governments. Most counties in the United States have small legislatures, usually called commissions or councils, that set their budgets and other policies. In this study, we examine whether counties with Democratic legislators spend more than counties with Republican ones. We assemble an original data set of 10,708 elections in approximately 298 medium and large counties over the past 25 years. Based on a regression discontinuity design, we find that electing a Democratic legislator rather than a Republican one leads the average county to increase spending by about 5%. Overall, our findings contribute to a growing literature on the policy consequences of partisan control of state and local government. They show that the partisan selection of county legislators has important policy effects in county governments.Accepted manuscrip

Concentrated burdens: how self-interest and partisanship shape opinion on opioid treatment policy

When does self-interest influence public opinion on contentious public policies? The bulk of theory in political science suggests that self-interest is only a minor force in public opinion. Using nationally representative survey data, we show how financial and spatial self-interest and partisanship all shape public opinion on opioid treatment policy. We find that a majority of respondents support a redistributive funding model for treatment programs, while treatment funded by taxation based on a community’s overdose rate is less popular. Moreover, financial self-interest cross-pressures lower-income Republicans, closing the partisan gap in support by more than half. We also experimentally test how the spatial burden of siting treatment clinics alters policy preferences. People across the political spectrum are less supportive when construction of a clinic is proposed closer to their home. These results highlight how partisanship and self-interest interact in shaping preferences on public policy with concentrated burdens.Accepted manuscrip

Trade balance and terms of trade in U.S.: a time-scale decomposition analysis

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on the nature of the relationship between the terms of trade and the trade balance for US on a scale-by-scale basis using wavelet analysis. Thus, after decomposing the two variables into their time-scale components using to the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) we analyze the time scale relationships between the terms of trade and the trade balance through the wavelet correlation analysis, and nonparametric regression models(GAMs). Wavelet correlation analysis indicates that, if the association between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends mainly on the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic goods, the Armington elasticities may be di¤erent across scales, and in particular, tend to get larger as the time horizon of the agents increases. Moreover, the long-run relationship between the trade balance and the terms of trade from the nonparametric …tted functions seems to provide support to the existence of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler e¤ect .trade variables, wavelet correlation analysis, generalized additive models

The World Trade Network

      This paper uses the tools of network analysis and graph theory to graphically and analytically represent the characteristics of world trade. The structure of the World Trade Network is compared over time, detecting and interpreting patterns of trade ties among countries. In particular, we assess whether the entrance of a number of new important players into the world trading system in recent years has changed the main characteristics of the existing structure of world trade, or whether the existing network was simply extended to a new group of countries. We also analyze whether the observed changes in international trade flow patterns are related to the multilateral or the regional liberalization policies. The results show that trade integration at the world level has been increasing but it is still far from being complete, with the exception of some areas, that there is a strong heterogeneity in the countries’ choice of partners, and that the WTO plays an important role in trade integration. The role of the extensive and the intensive margin of trade is also highlighted.Network analysis,International Trade,WTO,Extensive and Intensive Margins of Trade,Gravity

Economic Integration and Similarity in Trade Structures

In this paper we look at the similarity of trade structures in an integrating area. In particular, we analyse the export flows toward the EU market of four of the so-called “accession countries" of Central and Eastern Europe by comparing them to those of the pre-2004 members of the European Union (EU15). From a methodological point of view, we evaluate the appropriateness of different classes of similarity indices - correlation indices and distance metrics - opting for the use of the Bray-Curtis semi-metric to assess changes in the trade similarity. We examine its evolution over time - from 1989 to 2001 - considering both self-similarity (how the export composition of a CEEC has changed with respect to the beginning of the transition process) and EU-similarity (if and how the export composition of a CEEC has changed with respect to the EU15 export composition). Finally, we use EU-similarity matrices to test if the dynamics of sectoral distribution of total exports of Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria to the EU is related to the role acquired by processed trade in the 1990s. Using a nonparametric Mantel test we give evidence that: (1) processed trade is crucial in explaining changes in the overall structure of exports of transition countries, and (2) that greater economic integration in terms of trade flows and processing trade does not always lead to greater export similarity between the CEECs and the EU15 member States.EU, CEECs, Transition, Similarity, Nonparametrics

Similarity in export composition and catching-up

In this paper we look at the role of export composition in the growth process, considering how increased similarity in trade structure among countries can induce catching-up in income levels. We apply our analysis to the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) using the EU as a benchmark. We explicitly consider the sectoral export patterns of the CEECs by comparing them to those of the current members of the EU, focusing on countries' specialization as suppliers for the EU market. Our main result is that similarity in export composition has a positive, significant and nonlinear impact on catching-up, and seems to be driven by the growth of the main export market more than by other factors. Results are robust to controlling for openness and country-size and for investment, schooling, and the quality of institutions.EU enlargement,CEECs,,growth,,export composition,

Assessing the Impact of Remittances on Child Education in Ecuador: The role of educational supply constraints

We analyse the links between remittances and child education in Ecuador with special emphasis on the influences in supply conditions at the regional level. Our results point out to the favourable role of remittances on education, suggesting at the same time, the importance of an efficient basic infrastructure in the educational system, as a key element in fostering positive outcomes. The positive effect of remittances on child education is better understood within the context of public policies designed to improve and equalize educational supply conditions among the population.

Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversity

� � � This paper gives evidence to a stylized fact often disregarded in international trade empir- ics: countries' diversification. In the last fifteen years, the growth of world trade coexisted with the tendency of countries to reduce the specialization of their export composition along the development path. On average, countries do not specialize, they diversify. Our semiparametric empirical analysis shows how this result is robust to the use of different statistical indexes used to measure trade specialization to the level of sectoral aggrega- tion and to the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated to income per capita. Using a General Additive Model (GAM) with country-specific fixed-effect, we show that, controlling for countries heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income. �Nonparametrics,International Trade,Specialization

Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversify

This paper gives evidence to a stylized fact often disregarded in international trade empirics: countries' diversification. In the last fifteen years, the growth of world trade coexisted with the tendency of countries to reduce the specialization of their export composition along the development path. On average, countries do not specialize, they diversify. Our semiparametric empirical analysis shows how this result is robust to the use of different statistical indexes used to measure trade specialization to the level of sectoral aggregation and to the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated to income per capita. Using a General Additive Model (GAM) with country-specific fixed-effect, we show that, controlling for countries heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income.International Trade, Specialization, Development, Generalized Additive Models