Predicting the existence and prevalence of the US water quality trading markets

Water quality trading (WQT) programs aim to efficiently reduce pollution through marketbased incentives. However, WQT performance is uneven; while several programs have found frequent use, many experience operational barriers and low trading activity. What factors are associated with WQT existence, prevalence, and operational stage? In this paper, we present and analyze the most complete database of WQT programs in the United States (147 programs/policies), detailing market designs, trading mechanisms, traded pollutants, and segmented geographies in 355 distinct markets. We use hurdle models (joint binary and count regressions) to evaluate markets in concert with demographic, political, and environmental covariates. We find that only one half of markets become operational, new market establishment has declined since 2013, and market existence and prevalence has nuanced relationships with local political ideology, urban infrastructure, waterway and waterbody extents, regulated environmental impacts, and historic waterway impairment. Our findings suggest opportunities for better projecting program need and targeting program funding

Does removal of federal subsidies discourage urban development? An evaluation of the US Coastal Barrier Resources Act

Urban development relies on many factors to remain viable, including infrastructure, services, and government provisions and subsidies. However, in situations involving federal or state level policy, development responds not just to one regulatory signal, but also to multiple signals from overlapping and competing jurisdictions. The 1982 U.S. Coastal Barrier Resources Act (CoBRA) offers an opportunity to study when and how development restrictions and economic disincentives protect natural resources by stopping or slowing urban development in management regimes with distributed authority and responsibility. CoBRA prohibits federal financial assistance for infrastructure, post-storm disaster relief, and flood insurance in designated sections (CoBRA units) of coastal barriers. How has CoBRA's removal of these subsidies affected rates and types of urban development Using building footprint and real estate data (n = 1,385,552 parcels), we compare density of built structures, land use types, residential house size, and land values within and outside of CoBRA units in eight Southeast and Gulf Coast states. We show that CoBRA is associated with reduced development rates in designated coastal barriers. We also demonstrate how local responses may counteract withdrawal of federal subsidies. As attention increases towards improving urban resilience in high hazard areas, this work contributes to understanding how limitations on infrastructure and insurance subsidies can affect outcomes where overlapping jurisdictions have competing goals

A scoping review of simulation modeling in built environment and physical activity research: Current status, gaps, and future directions for improving translation

Existing reviews have suggested that simulation studies of physical activity and environments are an emerging area, but none have explored findings in this area systematically. We used a scoping review framework to assess the use of simulation modeling to inform decision-making about built environment influences on physical activity. A systematic literature search was conducted in multiple databases in January 2018. Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria. The studies evaluated interventions and features that were related to neighborhood safety (crime or traffic), active transportation, land use design, and walking and biking infrastructure. All of the studies focused on urban areas and most considered heterogeneity of outcomes based on local context. The majority of studies (70%) did not appear to have engaged or been used by practitioners or policy-makers to inform real-world decisions. There has been a growth of simulation modeling studies, but there remain gaps. The studies evaluated built environment interventions that have been recommended by expert panels, but more were of interventions related to active transportation; few considered recommended interventions to support recreational activity. Furthermore, studies have all focused on urban settings and there is a need to consider non-urban settings and how heterogeneity could reduce or exacerbate health disparities. More work to involve and evaluate practices for engaging stakeholders in model development and interpretation is also needed to overcome the translation of simulation research to practice gap, and realize its potential impact on the built environment and physical activity

How does the removal of federal subsidies affect investment in coastal protection infrastructure?

Shoreline armoring, which involves the installation of hardened structures to protect coastal property, dramatically alters shoreline composition and resulting ecological functions. Accelerating hazard threats to growing coastal communities compounds this problem, creating demand for more armoring. We examine whether designation by the U.S. Coastal Barrier Resources Act (CBRA) – enacted to disincentivize urban development on hazardous coastal barriers – is associated with lower propensities to armor shorelines. In designated areas, CBRA removes access to federally-subsidized flood insurance, infrastructure subsidies, and disaster assistance. Using logistic regression modeling, we examine armoring at the parcel scale across the State of Florida (USA), controlling for CBRA designation, land use, and local population density. Our findings reveal a significant negative relationship between CBRA designation and the odds of armoring, particularly for residential and vacant properties. As coastal areas grapple with increasing impacts from coastal hazards, removal of public subsidies may be an effective non-regulatory method for maintaining the ecological and protective benefits of natural shorelines

A national inventory and analysis of US transfer of development rights programs

Transfer of development rights (TDR) programs shift development intensity between land parcels. Jurisdictions, most commonly local municipal or county governments, employ TDR to protect resources such as farmland or historical properties and to encourage infill and redevelopment where deemed appropriate. However, while championed by economists and others seeking to reduce conflicts between land development and preservation, TDR program adoption has varied widely across the US. What demographic, economic, or environmental factors are associated with TDR program establishment? This paper describes a census of 375 TDR programs in the United States, documenting primary program attributes and adoption year and categorizing their functions and typology. Using logistic regression, we analyze program spatial patterns and factors predicting program implementation. We find that areas that are coastal, more liberal, have higher home values, in home-rule states, and in states with state-wide growth management programs, are all significantly more likely to implement TDR programs

Assessing the full costs of floodplain buyouts

Given projected increases in flood damages, managed retreat strategies are likely to become more widespread. Voluntary buyouts, where governments acquire flood-damaged properties and return the sites to open space, have been the primary form of federally funded retreat in the USA to date. However, little attention has been paid to the cost structure of buyout projects. Using a transaction cost framework, we analyze the costs of activities that comprise floodplain buyouts. Federal data do not distinguish transaction costs, but they do suggest that the cost of purchasing properties often accounts for 80% or less of total project costs. Through a systematic review (n = 1103 publications) and an analysis of government budgets (across n = 859 jurisdiction-years), we find limited sources with relevant cost information, none of which reports transaction costs. The absence of activity-level cost data inhibits more targeted policy reform to support community-driven and efficient buyout programs. Better data collection and reporting can inform more impactful and equitable buyout policy