Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors: An analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries

Aims: The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period. Methods: The study sample comprised 553818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors (sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL [high-density lipoprotein] cholesterol, systolic blood pressure [BP], and body mass index [BMI]) and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression. Results: The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the United Kingdom were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (p = 0.043 for overall difference) and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (p = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol (7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3-10%) and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%). Conclusion: The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk

Polymorphisms in transcription factor binding sites and enhancer regions and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma risk

: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are a powerful tool for detecting variants associated with complex traits and can help risk stratification and prevention strategies against pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, the strict significance threshold commonly used makes it likely that many true risk loci are missed. Functional annotation of GWAS polymorphisms is a proven strategy to identify additional risk loci. We aimed to investigate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in regulatory regions [transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) and enhancers] that could change the expression profile of multiple genes they act upon and thereby modify PDAC risk. We analyzed a total of 12,636 PDAC cases and 43,443 controls from PanScan/PanC4 and the East Asian GWAS (discovery populations), and the PANDoRA consortium (replication population). We identified four associations that reached study-wide statistical significance in the overall meta-analysis: rs2472632(A) (enhancer variant, OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.06,1.13, p = 5.5 × 10-8), rs17358295(G) (enhancer variant, OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.10,1.22, p = 6.1 × 10-7), rs2232079(T) (TFBS variant, OR 0.88, 95%CI 0.83,0.93, p = 6.4 × 10-6) and rs10025845(A) (TFBS variant, OR 1.88, 95%CI 1.50,1.12, p = 1.32 × 10-5). The SNP with the most significant association, rs2472632, is located in an enhancer predicted to target the coiled-coil domain containing 34 oncogene. Our results provide new insights into genetic risk factors for PDAC by a focused analysis of polymorphisms in regulatory regions and demonstrating the usefulness of functional prioritization to identify loci associated with PDAC risk