Tactical Industry Allocation and Model Uncertainty

We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze industry return predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. The posterior analysis shows the importance of inflation and earnings yield in predicting industry returns. The out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian approach is, in general, superior to that of other statistical model selection criteria. However, the out-of-sample forecasting power of a naive i.i.d. forecast is similar to the Bayesian forecast. A variance decomposition into model risk, estimation risk, and forecast error shows that model risk is less important than estimation risk. Copyright (c)2008, The Eastern Finance Association.

Fish oil and aspirin effects on arteriovenous fistula function: secondary outcomes of the randomised omega-3 fatty acids (Fish oils) and Aspirin in Vascular access OUtcomes in REnal Disease (FAVOURED) trial

Background: Arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) for haemodialysis often experience early thrombosis and maturation failure requiring intervention and/or central venous catheter (CVC) placement. This secondary and exploratory analysis of the FAVOURED study determined whether omega-3 fatty acids (fish oils) or aspirin affected AVF usability, intervention rates and CVC requirements. Methods: In 567 adult participants planned for AVF creation, all were randomised to fish oil (4g/d) or placebo, and 406 to aspirin (100mg/d) or placebo, starting one day pre-surgery and continued for three months. Outcomes evaluated within 12 months included AVF intervention rates, CVC exposure, late dialysis suitability failure, and times to primary patency loss, abandonment and successful cannulation. Results: Final analyses included 536 participants randomised to fish oil or placebo (mean age 55 years, 64% male, 45% diabetic) and 388 randomised to aspirin or placebo. Compared with placebo, fish oil reduced intervention rates (0.82 vs 1.14/1000 patient-days, incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.97), particularly interventions for acute thrombosis (0.09 vs 0.17/1000 patient-days, IRR 0.53, 95% CI 0.34–0.84). Aspirin significantly reduced rescue intervention rates (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.27–0.78). Neither agent significantly affected CVC exposure, late dialysis suitability failure or time to primary patency loss, AVF abandonment or successful cannulation. Conclusion: Although fish oil and low-dose aspirin given for 3 months reduced intervention rates in newly created AVF, they had no significant effects on CVC exposure, AVF usability and time to primary patency loss or access abandonment. Reduction in access interventions benefits patients, reduces costs and warrants further study.Andrea K. Viecelli, Kevan R. Polkinghorne, Elaine M. Pascoe, Peta-Anne Paul-Brent, Carmel M. Hawley ... Stephen P. McDonald .. et al

Structure of high-lying levels populated in the 96^{96}Y →96\rightarrow ^{96}Zr β\beta decay

The nature of $J^{\pi}=1^-$ levels of $^{96}$Zr below the $\beta$-decay $Q_{\beta}$ value of $^{96}$Y has been investigated in high-resolution $\gamma$-ray spectroscopy following the $\beta$ decay as well as in a campaign of inelastic photon scattering experiments. Branching ratios extracted from $\beta$ decay allow the absolute $E1$ excitation strength to be determined for levels populated in both reactions. The combined data represents a comprehensive approach to the wavefunction of $1^-$ levels below the $Q_{\beta}$ value, which are investigated in the theoretical approach of the Quasiparticle Phonon Model. This study clarifies the nuclear structure properties associated with the enhanced population of high-lying levels in the $^{96}$Y$_{gs}$ $\beta$ decay, one of the three most important contributors to the high-energy reactor antineutrino spectrum