Environmental variability in aquatic ecosystems: avenues for future multifactorial experiments

The relevance of considering environmental variability for understanding and predicting biological responses to environmental changes has resulted in a recent surge in variability-focused ecological research. However, integration of findings that emerge across studies and identification of remaining knowledge gaps in aquatic ecosystems remain critical. Here, we address these aspects by: (1) summarizing relevant terms of variability research including the components (characteristics) of variability and key interactions when considering multiple environmental factors; (2) identifying conceptual frameworks for understanding the consequences of environmental variability in single and multi-factorial scenarios; (3) highlighting challenges for bridging theoretical and experimental studies involving transitioning from simple to more complex scenarios; (4) proposing improved approaches to overcome current mismatches between theoretical predictions and experimental observations; and (5) providing a guide for designing integrated experiments across multiple scales, degrees of control, and complexity in light of their specific strengths and limitations

The future depends on what we do today – projecting Europe’s surface water quality into three different future scenarios

There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development (‘Consensus’, ‘Techno’ and ‘Fragmented’, which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected

Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.Additional co-authors: Tuba Bucak, Anthonie D. Buijse, Ana Cristina Cardoso, Raoul-Marie Couture, Fabien Cremona, Dick de Zwart, Christian K. Feld, M. Teresa Ferreira, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Mark O. Gessner, Alexander Gieswein, Lidija Globevnik, Daniel Graeber, Wolfram Graf, Cayetano Gutiérrez-Cánovas, Jenica Hanganu, Uğur Işkın, Marko Järvinen, Erik Jeppesen, Niina Kotamäki, Marijn Kuijper, Jan U. Lemm, Shenglan Lu, Anne Lyche Solheim, Ute Mischke, S. Jannicke Moe, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Steve J. Ormerod, Yiannis Panagopoulos, Leo Posthuma, Sarai Pouso, Christel Prudhomme, Katri Rankinen, Jes J. Rasmussen, Jessica Richardson, Alban Sagouis, José Maria Santos, Ralf B. Schäfer, Rafaela Schinegger, Stefan Schmutz, Susanne C. Schneider, Lisa Schülting, Pedro Segurado, Kostas Stefanidis, Bernd Sures, Stephen J. Thackeray, Jarno Turunen, María C. Uyarra, Markus Venohr, Peter Carsten von der Ohe & Daniel Herin

Can space-for-time-substitution surveys represent zooplankton biodiversity patterns and their relationship to environmental drivers?

Space-for-Time-Substitution surveys (SFTS) are commonly used to describe zooplankton community dynamics and to determine lake ecosystem health. SFTS surveys typically combine single point observations from many lakes to evaluate the response of zooplankton community structure and dynamics (e.g., species abundance and biomass, diversity, demographics and modeled rate processes) to spatial gradients in hypothesized environmental drivers (e.g., temperature, nutrients, predation), in lieu of tracking such responses over long time scales. However, the reliability and reproducibility of SFTS zooplankton surveys have not yet been comprehensively tested against empirically-based community dynamics from longterm monitoring efforts distributed worldwide. We use a recently compiled global data set of more than 100 lake zooplankton time series to test whether SFTS surveys can accurately capture zooplankton diversity, and the hypothesized relationship with temperature, using simulated SFTS surveys of the time series data. Specifically, we asked: (1) to what degree can SFTS surveys capture observed biodiversity dynamics; (2) how does timing and duration of sampling affect detected biodiversity patterns; (3) does biodiversity ubiquitously increase with temperature across lakes, or vary by climate zone or lake type; and (4) do results from SFTS surveys produce comparable biodiversity-temperature relationship(s) to empirical data within and among lakes? Testing biodiversity-ecosystem function (BEF) relationships, and the drivers of such relationships, requires a solid data basis. Our work provides a global perspective on the design and usefulness of (long-term) zooplankton monitoring programs and how much confidence we can place in the zooplankton biodiversity patterns observed from SFTS surveys

Data Descriptor : A European Multi Lake Survey dataset of environmental variables, phytoplankton pigments and cyanotoxins

Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.Peer reviewe

Environmental variability in aquatic ecosystems: Avenues for future multifactorial experiments

The relevance of considering environmental variability for understanding and predicting biological responses to environmental changes has resulted in a recent surge in variability-focused ecological research. However, integration of findings that emerge across studies and identification of remaining knowledge gaps in aquatic ecosystems remain critical. Here, we address these aspects by: (1) summarizing relevant terms of variability research including the components (characteristics) of variability and key interactions when considering multiple environmental factors; (2) identifying conceptual frameworks for understanding the consequences of environmental variability in single and multifactorial scenarios; (3) highlighting challenges for bridging theoretical and experimental studies involving transitioning from simple to more complex scenarios; (4) proposing improved approaches to overcome current mismatches between theoretical predictions and experimental observations; and (5) providing a guide for designing integrated experiments across multiple scales, degrees of control, and complexity in light of their specific strengths and limitations

Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.Peer reviewe

Stratification strength and light climate explain variation in chlorophyll a at the continental scale in a European multilake survey in a heatwave summer

To determine the drivers of phytoplankton biomass, we collected standardized morphometric, physical, and biological data in 230 lakes across the Mediterranean, Continental, and Boreal climatic zones of the European continent. Multilinear regression models tested on this snapshot of mostly eutrophic lakes (median total phosphorus [TP] = 0.06 and total nitrogen [TN] = 0.7 mg L−1), and its subsets (2 depth types and 3 climatic zones), show that light climate and stratification strength were the most significant explanatory variables for chlorophyll a (Chl a) variance. TN was a significant predictor for phytoplankton biomass for shallow and continental lakes, while TP never appeared as an explanatory variable, suggesting that under high TP, light, which partially controls stratification strength, becomes limiting for phytoplankton development. Mediterranean lakes were the warmest yet most weakly stratified and had significantly less Chl a than Boreal lakes, where the temperature anomaly from the long-term average, during a summer heatwave was the highest (+4°C) and showed a significant, exponential relationship with stratification strength. This European survey represents a summer snapshot of phytoplankton biomass and its drivers, and lends support that light and stratification metrics, which are both affected by climate change, are better predictors for phytoplankton biomass in nutrient-rich lakes than nutrient concentrations and surface temperature