Adjusting Medicare capitation payments using prior hospitalization data

The diagnostic cost group approach to a reimbursement model for health maintenance organizations is presented. Diagnostic information about previous hospitalizations is used to create empirically determined risk groups, using only diagnoses involving little or no discretion in the decision to hospitalize. Diagnostic cost group and other models (including Medicare\u27s current formula and other prior-use models) are tested for their ability to predict future costs, using R2 values and new measures of predictive performance. The diagnostic cost group models perform relatively well with respect to a range of criteria, including administrative feasibility, resistance to provider manipulation, and statistical accuracy

Association of metabolic dysregulation with volumetric brain magnetic resonance imaging and cognitive markers of subclinical brain aging in middle-aged adults: the Framingham Offspring Study.

ObjectiveDiabetic and prediabtic states, including insulin resistance, fasting hyperglycemia, and hyperinsulinemia, are associated with metabolic dysregulation. These components have been individually linked to increased risks of cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to comprehensively relate all of the components of metabolic dysregulation to cognitive function and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in middle-aged adults.Research design and methodsFramingham Offspring participants who underwent volumetric MRI and detailed cognitive testing and were free of clinical stroke and dementia during examination 7 (1998-2001) constituted our study sample (n = 2,439; 1,311 women; age 61 ± 9 years). We related diabetes, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), fasting insulin, and glycohemoglobin levels to cross-sectional MRI measures of total cerebral brain volume (TCBV) and hippocampal volume and to verbal and visuospatial memory and executive function. We serially adjusted for age, sex, and education alone (model A), additionally for other vascular risk factors (model B), and finally, with the inclusion of apolipoprotein E-ε4, plasma homocysteine, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 (model C).ResultsWe observed an inverse association between all indices of metabolic dysfunction and TCBV in all models (P < 0.030). The observed difference in TCBV between participants with and without diabetes was equivalent to approximately 6 years of chronologic aging. Diabetes and elevated glycohemoglobin, HOMA-IR, and fasting insulin were related to poorer executive function scores (P < 0.038), whereas only HOMA-IR and fasting insulin were inversely related to visuospatial memory (P < 0.007).ConclusionsMetabolic dysregulation, especially insulin resistance, was associated with lower brain volumes and executive function in a large, relatively healthy, middle-aged, community-based cohort

Genetic Correlates of Brain Aging on MRI and Cognitive Test Measures: A Genome-Wide Association and Linkage Analysis in the Framingham Study

BACKGROUND: Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cognitive tests can identify heritable endophenotypes associated with an increased risk of developing stroke, dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). We conducted a genome-wide association (GWA) and linkage analysis exploring the genetic basis of these endophenotypes in a community-based sample. METHODS: A total of 705 stroke- and dementia-free Framingham participants (age 62 +9 yrs, 50% male) who underwent volumetric brain MRI and cognitive testing (1999–2002) were genotyped. We used linear models adjusting for first degree relationships via generalized estimating equations (GEE) and family based association tests (FBAT) in additive models to relate qualifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, 70,987 autosomal on Affymetrix 100K Human Gene Chip with minor allele frequency ≥ 0.10, genotypic call rate ≥ 0.80, and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium p-value ≥ 0.001) to multivariable-adjusted residuals of 9 MRI measures including total cerebral brain (TCBV), lobar, ventricular and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volumes, and 6 cognitive factors/tests assessing verbal and visuospatial memory, visual scanning and motor speed, reading, abstract reasoning and naming. We determined multipoint identity-by-descent utilizing 10,592 informative SNPs and 613 short tandem repeats and used variance component analyses to compute LOD scores. RESULTS: The strongest gene-phenotype association in FBAT analyses was between SORL1 (rs1131497; p = 3.2 × 10-6) and abstract reasoning, and in GEE analyses between CDH4 (rs1970546; p = 3.7 × 10-8) and TCBV. SORL1 plays a role in amyloid precursor protein processing and has been associated with the risk of AD. Among the 50 strongest associations (25 each by GEE and FBAT) were other biologically interesting genes. Polymorphisms within 28 of 163 candidate genes for stroke, AD and memory impairment were associated with the endophenotypes studied at p < 0.001. We confirmed our previously reported linkage of WMH on chromosome 4 and describe linkage of reading performance to a marker on chromosome 18 (GATA11A06), previously linked to dyslexia (LOD scores = 2.2 and 5.1). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that genes associated with clinical neurological disease also have detectable effects on subclinical phenotypes. These hypothesis generating data illustrate the use of an unbiased approach to discover novel pathways that may be involved in brain aging, and could be used to replicate observations made in other studies.National Institutes of Health National Center for Research Resources Shared Instrumentation grant (ISI0RR163736-01A1); National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (N01-HC-25195); National Institute of Aging (5R01-AG08122, 5R01-AG16495); National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (5R01-NS17950

Incidence of seizures following initial ischemic stroke in a community-based cohort: The Framingham Heart Study

Purpose We examined the incidence of seizures following ischemic stroke in a community-based sample. Methods All subjects with incident ischemic strokes in the Framingham Original and Offspring cohorts between 1982 and 2003 were identified and followed for up to 20 years to determine incidence of seizures. Seizure-type was based on the 2010 International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) classification. Disability was stratified into mild/none, moderate and severe, based on post-stroke neurological deficit documentation according to the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) protocol and functional status was determined using the Barthel Index. Results An initial ischemic stroke occurred in 469 subjects in the cohort and seizures occurred in 25 (5.3%) of these subjects. Seizure incidence was similar in both large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) (6.8%) and cardio-embolic (CE) (6.2%) strokes. No seizures occurred following lacunar strokes. The predominant seizure type was focal seizure with or without evolution to bilateral convulsive seizure. One third of participants had seizures within the first 24 h from stroke onset and half of all seizures occurred within the first 30 days. On multivariate analysis, moderate and severe disability following stroke was associated with increased risk of incident seizure. Conclusions Seizures occurred in approximately 5% of subjects after an ischemic stroke. One third of these seizures occurred in the first 24 h after stroke and none followed lacunar strokes. Focal seizures with or without evolution in bilateral convulsive seizures were the most common seizure type. Moderate and severe disability was predictive of incident seizures

Association of Metabolic Dysregulation With Volumetric Brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Cognitive Markers of Subclinical Brain Aging in Middle-Aged Adults

Objective: Diabetic and prediabtic states, including insulin resistance, fasting hyperglycemia, and hyperinsulinemia, are associated with metabolic dysregulation. These components have been individually linked to increased risks of cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s disease. We aimed to comprehensively relate all of the components of metabolic dysregulation to cognitive function and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in middle-aged adults. Research Design and Methods: Framingham Offspring participants who underwent volumetric MRI and detailed cognitive testing and were free of clinical stroke and dementia during examination 7 (1998–2001) constituted our study sample (n = 2,439; 1,311 women; age 61 ± 9 years). We related diabetes, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), fasting insulin, and glycohemoglobin levels to cross-sectional MRI measures of total cerebral brain volume (TCBV) and hippocampal volume and to verbal and visuospatial memory and executive function. We serially adjusted for age, sex, and education alone (model A), additionally for other vascular risk factors (model B), and finally, with the inclusion of apolipoprotein E-ε4, plasma homocysteine, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 (model C). Results: We observed an inverse association between all indices of metabolic dysfunction and TCBV in all models (P < 0.030). The observed difference in TCBV between participants with and without diabetes was equivalent to approximately 6 years of chronologic aging. Diabetes and elevated glycohemoglobin, HOMA-IR, and fasting insulin were related to poorer executive function scores (P < 0.038), whereas only HOMA-IR and fasting insulin were inversely related to visuospatial memory (P < 0.007). Conclusions: Metabolic dysregulation, especially insulin resistance, was associated with lower brain volumes and executive function in a large, relatively healthy, middle-aged, community-based cohort

Circulating brain‐derived neurotrophic factor concentrations and the risk of cardiovascular disease in the community

BACKGROUND: Brain‐derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is a pleiotropic peptide involved in maintaining endothelial integrity. It is unknown if circulating BDNF levels are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively investigated the association of circulating BDNF levels with cardiovascular events and mortality in 3687 participants (mean age 65 years, 2068 women) from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). Using a common nonsynonomous single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the BDNF gene (rs6265), we then performed a Mendelian randomization experiment in the CARDIoGRAM (Coronary ARtery DIsease Genome‐Wide Replication And Meta‐Analysis) consortium (>22 000 coronary artery disease [CAD] cases, >60 000 controls) to investigate whether SNP rs6265 was associated with CAD in CARDIoGRAM and, if so, whether the effect estimate differed from that predicted based on FHS data. On follow‐up (median 8.9 years), 467 individuals (261 women) in FHS experienced a CVD event, and 835 (430 women) died. In multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression, serum BDNF was associated inversely with CVD risk (hazard ratio [HR] per 1‐SD increase 0.88, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.97, P=0.01) and with mortality (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.93, P=0.0002). SNP rs6265 was associated with BDNF concentrations (0.772 ng/mL increase per minor allele copy) in FHS. In CARDIoGRAM, SNP rs6265 was associated with CAD (odds ratio 0.957, 95% CI 0.923 to 0.992), a magnitude consistent with the predicted effect (HR per minor allele copy 0.99, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.0; P=0.06 for difference between predicted and observed effect). CONCLUSION: Higher serum BDNF is associated with a decreased risk of CVD and mortality. Mendelian randomization suggests a causal protective role of BDNF in the pathogenesis of CVD

Circulating ceramide ratios and risk of vascular brain aging and dementia

BACKGROUND: We determined the association between ratios of plasma ceramide species of differing fatty-acyl chain lengths and incident dementia and Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD) dementia in a large, community-based sample. METHODS: We measured plasma ceramide levels in 1892 [54% women, mean age 70.1 (SD 6.9) yr.] dementia-free Framingham Offspring Study cohort participants between 2005 and 2008. We related ratios of very long-chain (C24:0, C22:0) to long-chain (C16:0) ceramides to subsequent risk of incident dementia and AD dementia. Structural MRI brain measures were included as secondary outcomes. RESULTS: During a median 6.5 year follow-up, 81 participants developed dementia, of whom 60 were diagnosed with AD dementia. In multivariable Cox-proportional hazards analyses, each standard deviation (SD) increment in the ratio of ceramides C24:0/C16:0 was associated with a 27% reduction in the risk of dementia (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.56-0.96) and AD dementia (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53-1.00). The ratio of ceramides C22:0/C16:0 was also inversely associated with incident dementia (HR per SD 0.75, 95% CI 0.57-0.98), and approached statistical significance for AD (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53-1.01, P = 0.056). Higher ratios of ceramides C24:0/C16:0 and C22:0/C16:0 were also cross-sectionally associated with lower white matter hyperintensity burden on MRI (-0.05 ± 0.02, P = 0.02; -0.06 ± 0.02, P = 0.003; respectively per SD increase), but not with other MRI brain measures. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma ratios of very long-chain to long-chain ceramides are associated with a reduced risk of incident dementia and AD dementia in our community-based sample. Circulating ceramide ratios may serve as potential biomarkers for predicting dementia risk in cognitively healthy adults

Association of MRI Visible Perivascular Spaces and Neurofilament Light Chain: The Framingham Heart Study.

BackgroundNeurofilament light chain (NfL) is a marker of neuronal injury. Perivascular spaces (PVS) visible on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) represent cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) but their role as markers of neuronal injury needs further clarification.ObjectiveTo relate PVS burden according to brain topography and plasma NfL.MethodsFramingham Heart Study (FHS) participants with brain MRI and NfL measurements were included. PVS were rated in the basal ganglia (BG) and centrum semiovale (CSO) using validated methods and categorized based on counts. A mixed region variable representing high burden PVS in either BG or CSO was assessed. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to relate PVS burden to log-transformed NfL levels in models adjusted for age, sex, FHS cohort, time between MRI and clinic exam, and image view (model 1), vascular risk factors (model 2), and white matter hyperintensity volume, covert brain infarcts, and cerebral microbleeds (model 3).ResultsAmong 1,457 participants (68.1±8.5 years, 45% males), NfL levels increased with higher PVS burden. Multivariable analysis showed an association of high PVS burden strictly in BG with NfL (β= 0.117, 95% CI 0.014-0.221; p = 0.027), but attenuated in model 3. The associations were mainly in participants≥65 years (β= 0.122, 95% CI 0.015-0.229, p = 0.026), women (β= 0.156, 95% CI 0.024-0.288, p = 0.021), and APOE ɛ4 non-carriers (β= 0.140, 95% CI 0.017-0.263, p = 0.026).ConclusionsThe association of strictly BG high PVS burden with NfL suggests a role for PVS as markers of neuroaxonal injury, but our results are hypothesis generating and require further replication

Lexical retrieval in discourse: An early indicator of Alzheimer’s dementia

We examined the progression of lexical-retrieval deficits in individuals with neuropathologically determined Alzheimer’s disease (AD; n=23) and a comparison group without criteria for AD (n=24) to determine whether linguistic changes were a significant marker of the disease. Our participants underwent multiple administrations of a neuropsychological battery, with initial administration occurring on average 16 years prior to death. The battery included the Boston Naming Test (BNT), a letter fluency task (FAS) and written description of the Cookie Theft Picture (CTP). Repeated measures analysis revealed that the AD-group showed progressively greater decline in FAS and CTP lexical performance than the comparison group. Crosssectional time-specific group comparisons indicated that the CTP differentiated performance between the two groups at 7–9 years prior to death and FAS and BNT only at 2–4 years. These results suggest that lexical retrieval deficits in written discourse serve as an early indicator of AD