Vulnerability of inflation in the new EU Member States to country-specific and global factors

This empirical paper uses a GMM-System panel estimator to assess the vulnerability of inflation in the new EU Member States to country-specific and global factors over the period 1998 to 2007, including an assessment of the more recent 2002 to 2007 period. Using a large dataset of macroeconomic, financial and structural reform indicators, the results suggest that country-specific factors such as exchange rate movements, productivity growth, government consumption expenditure, capital growth, the current account balance, and reforms on price liberalisation have strong effects on inflation. Global factors that have a notable effect include energy prices, and particularly in the more recent period, food prices. Furthermore, inflationary effects of EU accession are apparent in the 2002 to 2007 analysis. The magnitudes of the coefficients suggest that country-specific effects dominate global influences on inflation in the CEEs.

Exchange Rate Pass-through in Central and Eastern European Member States

This paper provides estimates of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices for nine central and eastern European EU Member States. Using a five-variate cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) for each country and impulse responses derived from the VECM (vector error correction model), we show that ERPT to consumer prices averages about 0.6 using the cointegrated VAR and 0.5 using the impulse responses. We also find that the ERPT seems to be higher for countries that have adopted some form of fixed exchange rate regime. These results are robust to alternative normalisation of the VAR and alternative ordering of the impulse responses. JEL Classification: E31, F31central and eastern Europe, Exchange Rate Pass-Through, inflation

International exchange rate dynamics and purchasing power parity

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis provides evidence in favour of the long-run validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) using primarily a linear error correction framework. Through an examination of PPP where proportionality and symmetry are implicitly imposed, it is shown that a selection of twelve EU real exchange rates is stationary on a univariate basis. The contribution here is based on the reconciliation of unit root test outcomes across univariate and panel tests. Following this analysis, the Johansen cointegration procedure is employed to examine whether long-run equilibrium relationships can be identified in systems of real exchange rates. The implications of results found are set out in terms of regional exchange rate policy co-ordination, exchange rate regime appropriateness, and monetary integration. By focussing on interdependent regions that were affected by a major financial shock (Europe: EMS crisis; Latin America: Mexican crisis; South East Asia: 1997 crisis), the real exchange rate dynamics are compared in pre- and post-crisis scenarios.This thesis also presents evidence in favour of PPP by examining the less restrictive scenario where neither proportionality nor symmetry is imposed. Given the fact that most developed economies have highly integrated goods and capital markets and liberalised capital accounts, the failure to find evidence for PPP in previous studies may be due to the exclusion of factors that might reflect the behaviour of capital markets and their influence on the exchange rate. To test this, the traditional nominal exchange rate and domestic/foreign price based system is augmented with an interest rate component. In a tripolar specification, the joint test of PPP and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) is found to hold in a system comprising Germany, Denmark and the UK, suggesting well-integrated goods and capital markets and the long-run convergence evident suggests that Denmark and the UK might be suitable for membership of the euro area. This convergence appears to be stronger when short-term interest rates are used as opposed to long-term rates (perhaps since they are not subject to distortions such as taxation and maturity levels). Furthermore, long-rates have been associated recently with an inversion of the yield curve, while evidence to support the yield curve in non-crisis times is mixed. Finally, multivariate and panel cointegration procedures are employed to provide evidence for the suitability of potential future euro area entrants from Central and Eastern Europe in tri-variate systems comprising the euro nominal exchange rate and two price series

Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread: A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by liquidity risk, credit risk (financial and sovereign), and interest rate expectations. Our results suggest that liquidity risk is the main determinant of the volatility of the policy spread, but also that private bank credit risk has become more apparent in the post-Lehman collapse phase of the crisis for the euro area as financial CDS premia rose due to possible default fears. In addition, the ECB appears to have been more effective in addressing liquidity risk since the onset of the crisis, and this may be related to its greater direct access to a broader range of counterparties and its acceptance of a broader range of eligible collateral. The main implication is that, in crisis times, a sufficiently flexible operational framework for monetary policy implementation produces the most timely response to market tensions.overnight interest rate spread, liquidity risk, credit risk, stochastic volatility

Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread: A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by liquidity risk, credit risk (financial and sovereign), and interest rate expectations. Our results suggest that liquidity risk is the main determinant of the volatility of the policy spread, but also that private bank credit risk has become more apparent in the post-Lehman collapse phase of the crisis for the euro area as financial CDS premia rose due to possible default fears. In addition, the ECB appears to have been more effective in addressing liquidity risk since the onset of the crisis, and this may be related to its greater direct access to a broader range of counterparties and its acceptance of a broader range of eligible collateral. The main implication is that, in crisis times, a sufficiently flexible operational framework for monetary policy implementation produces the most timely response to market tensions.Overnight Interest Rate Spread, Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk, Stochastic Volatility

Capital flows and macroprudential policies - A multilateral assessment of effectiveness and externalities

This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macro- prudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009. Our panel analysis takes into account the structure of the banking system as well as the presence of potential cross-country and cross-asset class spillover effects. Our results indicate that the structure of the domestic banking system matters for the effectiveness of MPPs. We specifically find that a high share of non-resident bank loans in the MPP-implementing country reduces the domestic effectiveness of most MPPs, while a high return on assets in the domestic banking system has the opposite effect. Our results on the spillover analysis indicate that both types of spillover can occur. First, we find that a high return on assets in the banking system of countries other than the MPP-implementing one leads to a reduction, and a greater degree of trade integration leads to an increase in spillovers across countries. However, the economic significance of the results suggests that only a limited number of countries will tend to experience substantial geographical spillover effects. Second, we also find some evidence of spillover effects across asset classes within countries

Volatility spillovers of Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheet expansions to emerging market economies

This paper examines volatility spillovers from changes in the size of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve (FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) to emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2003 to 2014. We find that EME bond markets are most susceptible to positive volatility spillovers from both the FED and ECB in terms of magnitude. Positive volatility spillovers to EME currency markets are higher in the case of FED balance sheet expansions than those of the ECB by a factor of about ten. By contrast, we find that EME stock markets are subject to negative volatility spillovers. Moreover, we find only limited evidence of volatility transmission to the real economy of EMEs following the monetary policy actions of the FED and ECB. Finally, we show that the proportion of the volatility in EMEs that is accounted for by changes in FED and ECB balance sheets shifts over time

Exchange Rate Pass-through in Central and Eastern European Member States

This paper provides estimates of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices for nine central and eastern European EU Member States. Using a five-variate cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) for each country and impulse responses derived from the VECM (vector error correction model), we show that ERPT to consumer prices averages about 0.6 using the cointegrated VAR and 0.5 using the impulse responses. We also find that the ERPT seems to be higher for countries that have adopted some form of fixed exchange rate regime. These results are robust to alternative normalisation of the VAR and alternative ordering of the impulse responses

Capital flows and macroprudential policies: A multilateral assessment of effectiveness and externalities

This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009. Our panel analysis takes into account the structure of the banking system as well as the presence of potential crosscountry and cross-asset class spillover effects. Our results indicate that the structure of the domestic banking system matters for the effectiveness of MPPs. We specifically find that a high share of non-resident bank loans in the MPP-implementing country reduces the domestic effectiveness of most MPPs, while a high return on assets in the domestic banking system has the opposite effect. Our results on the spillover analysis indicate that both types of spillover can occur. First, we find that a high return on assets in the banking system of countries other than the MPP-implementing one leads to a reduction, and a greater degree of trade integration leads to an increase in spillovers across countries. However, the economic significance of the results suggests that only a limited number of countries will tend to experience substantial geographical spillover effects. Second, we also find some evidence of spillover effects across asset classes within countries.Nous évaluons l’efficacité des politiques macroprudentielles dans la gestion des flux de capitaux internationaux et les externalités découlant de leur mise en oeuvre. À l’aide d’un échantillon comptant jusqu’à 139 pays, nous étudions les effets de huit mesures de politique macroprudentielle sur les flux bancaires transfrontaliers au cours de la période allant de 1999 à 2009. Notre analyse longitudinale examine la structure du système bancaire et la présence de possibles effets de débordement entre pays et entre categories d’actifs. Nos résultats indiquent que la structure du système bancaire national a une incidence sur l’efficacité des politiques macroprudentielles. Plus précisément, nous constatons qu’une proportion élevée de prêts accordés par des banques non residents dans un pays qui adopte des politiques macroprudentielles réduit l’efficacité à l’échelle intérieure de la plupart de celles-ci, alors qu’un haut rendement des actifs dans le système bancaire national a une incidence contraire. Par ailleurs, notre analyse donne à penser que les deux types d’effets de débordement peuvent se produire. Premièrement, nous observons qu’un haut rendement des actifs dans le système bancaire de pays autres que celui qui applique des politiques macroprudentielles entraîne une diminution de ces effets, alors qu’un niveau élevé d’intégration commerciale au sein du même groupe de pays provoque une hausse dans tout le groupe. Cependant, le fait que les résultats soient économiquement significatifs tend à indiquer que généralement seul un nombre limité de pays subit des effets de débordement géographiques. Deuxièmement, certains résultats laissent entrevoir des retombées touchant diverses catégories d’actifs à l’intérieur de pays