Methodological challenges in measuring vaccine effectiveness using population cohorts in low resource settings.

Post-licensure real world evaluation of vaccine implementation is important for establishing evidence of vaccine effectiveness (VE) and programme impact, including indirect effects. Large cohort studies offer an important epidemiological approach for evaluating VE, but have inherent methodological challenges. Since March 2012, we have conducted an open prospective cohort study in two sites in rural Malawi to evaluate the post-introduction effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) against all-cause post-neonatal infant mortality and monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) against diarrhoea-related post-neonatal infant mortality. Our study sites cover a population of 500,000, with a baseline post-neonatal infant mortality of 25 per 1000 live births. We conducted a methodological review of cohort studies for vaccine effectiveness in a developing country setting, applied to our study context. Based on published literature, we outline key considerations when defining the denominator (study population), exposure (vaccination status) and outcome ascertainment (mortality and cause of death) of such studies. We assess various definitions in these three domains, in terms of their impact on power, effect size and potential biases and their direction, using our cohort study for illustration. Based on this iterative process, we discuss the pros and cons of our final per-protocol analysis plan. Since no single set of definitions or analytical approach accounts for all possible biases, we propose sensitivity analyses to interrogate our assumptions and methodological decisions. In the poorest regions of the world where routine vital birth and death surveillance are frequently unavailable and the burden of disease and death is greatest We conclude that provided the balance between definitions and their overall assumed impact on estimated VE are acknowledged, such large scale real-world cohort studies can provide crucial information to policymakers by providing robust and compelling evidence of total benefits of newly introduced vaccines on reducing child mortality

Identifying a Window of Vulnerability during Fetal Development in a Maternal Iron Restriction Model

It is well acknowledged from observations in humans that iron deficiency during pregnancy can be associated with a number of developmental problems in the newborn and developing child. Due to the obvious limitations of human studies, the stage during gestation at which maternal iron deficiency causes an apparent impairment in the offspring remains elusive. In order to begin to understand the time window(s) during pregnancy that is/are especially susceptible to suboptimal iron levels, which may result in negative effects on the development of the fetus, we developed a rat model in which we were able to manipulate and monitor the dietary iron intake during specific stages of pregnancy and analyzed the developing fetuses. We established four different dietary-feeding protocols that were designed to render the fetuses iron deficient at different gestational stages. Based on a functional analysis that employed Auditory Brainstem Response measurements, we found that maternal iron restriction initiated prior to conception and during the first trimester were associated with profound changes in the developing fetus compared to iron restriction initiated later in pregnancy. We also showed that the presence of iron deficiency anemia, low body weight, and changes in core body temperature were not defining factors in the establishment of neural impairment in the rodent offspring

Meniscal Transplant surgery or Optimised Rehabilitation full randomised trial (MeTeOR2): a study protocol

Introduction: Pain and disability after meniscectomy can be a substantial lifelong problem. There are few treatment options, especially for young people. Non-surgical management (rehabilitation) is an option but increasingly surgeons are performing meniscal allograft transplants (MATs) for these individuals. However, this is still an uncommon procedure, and availability and usage of MAT vary widely both in the UK and internationally. It is not known which treatment option is the most effective and cost-effective. Methods and analysis: The Meniscal Transplant surgery or Optimised Rehabilitation trial is an international, multicentre, randomised controlled trial. The aim is to compare the clinical and cost effectiveness of MAT versus an optimised package of individualised, progressive, rehabilitation that we have called personalised knee therapy (PKT). Participants will be recruited from sites across the UK, Australia, Canada and Belgium. The planned 144 participants provide at least 90% power to detect a 10-point difference in the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS4) at 24-months post randomisation (primary outcome). A prospectively planned economic evaluation will be conducted from a healthcare system and personal social services perspective. Secondary outcome data including health utility, occupational status, sports participation, mental well-being, further treatment, and adverse events will be collected at 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Analysis will be on an intention-to-treat basis and reported in-line with the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement. Ethics and dissemination: The trial was approved by the London—Bloomsbury Research Ethics Committee on 19 August 2022 (22/LO/0327) and Northern Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee, NSW, Australia on the 13 March 2023 (2022/ETH01890). Trial results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, presentations at international conferences, in lay summaries and using social media as appropriate. This protocol adheres to the recommended Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) checklist. Trial registration number: ISRCTN87336549

Emergence of double- and triple-gene reassortant G1P[8] rotaviruses possessing a DS-1-like backbone after rotavirus vaccine introduction in Malawi

To combat the high burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis, multiple African countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into their childhood immunization programs. Malawi incorporated a G1P[8] rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix) into its immunization schedule in 2012. Utilizing a surveillance platform of hospitalized rotavirus gastroenteritis cases, we examined the phylodynamics of G1P[8] rotavirus strains that circulated in Malawi before (1998 to 2012) and after (2013 to 2014) vaccine introduction. Analysis of whole genomes obtained through next-generation sequencing revealed that all randomly selected prevaccine G1P[8] strains sequenced (n = 32) possessed a Wa-like genetic constellation, whereas postvaccine G1P[8] strains (n = 18) had a DS-1-like constellation. Phylodynamic analyses indicated that postvaccine G1P[8] strains emerged through reassortment events between human Wa- and DS-1-like rotaviruses that circulated in Malawi from the 1990s and hence were classified as atypical DS-1-like reassortants. The time to the most recent common ancestor for G1P[8] strains was from 1981 to 1994; their evolutionary rates ranged from 9.7 × 10−4 to 4.1 × 10−3 nucleotide substitutions/site/year. Three distinct G1P[8] lineages chronologically replaced each other between 1998 and 2014. Genetic drift was the likely driver for lineage turnover in 2005, whereas replacement in 2013 was due to reassortment. Amino acid substitution within the outer glycoprotein VP7 of G1P[8] strains had no impact on the structural conformation of the antigenic regions, suggesting that it is unlikely that they would affect recognition by vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. While the emergence of DS-1-like G1P[8] rotavirus reassortants in Malawi was therefore likely due to natural genotype variation, vaccine effectiveness against such strains needs careful evaluation. IMPORTANCE: The error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and the segmented RNA genome predispose rotaviruses to genetic mutation and genome reassortment, respectively. These evolutionary mechanisms generate novel strains and have the potential to lead to the emergence of vaccine escape mutants. While multiple African countries have introduced a rotavirus vaccine, there are few data describing the evolution of rotaviruses that circulated before and after vaccine introduction. We report the emergence of atypical DS-1-like G1P[8] strains during the postvaccine era in Malawi. Three distinct G1P[8] lineages circulated chronologically from 1998 to 2014; mutation and reassortment drove lineage turnover in 2005 and 2013, respectively. Amino acid substitutions within the outer capsid VP7 glycoprotein did not affect the structural conformation of mapped antigenic sites, suggesting a limited effect on the recognition of G1-specific vaccine-derived antibodies. The genes that constitute the remaining genetic backbone may play important roles in immune evasion, and vaccine effectiveness against such atypical strains needs careful evaluation

Flow of a viscoelastic fluid over a stretching sheet

This paper presents a study of the flow of an incompressible second-order fluid past a stretching sheet. The problem has a bearing on some polymer processing application such as the continuous extrusion of a polymer sheet from a die.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47204/1/397_2005_Article_BF01332078.pd

Photodisintegration of 4^4He into p+t

The two-body photodisintegration of $^4$He into a proton and a triton has been studied using the CEBAF Large-Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) at Jefferson Laboratory. Real photons produced with the Hall-B bremsstrahlung-tagging system in the energy range from 0.35 to 1.55 GeV were incident on a liquid $^4$He target. This is the first measurement of the photodisintegration of $^4$He above 0.4 GeV. The differential cross sections for the $\gamma$$^4$He$\to pt$ reaction have been measured as a function of photon-beam energy and proton-scattering angle, and are compared with the latest model calculations by J.-M. Laget. At 0.6-1.2 GeV, our data are in good agreement only with the calculations that include three-body mechanisms, thus confirming their importance. These results reinforce the conclusion of our previous study of the three-body breakup of $^3$He that demonstrated the great importance of three-body mechanisms in the energy region 0.5-0.8 GeV .Comment: 13 pages submitted in one tgz file containing 2 tex file and 22 postscrip figure

π0\pi^0 photoproduction on the proton for photon energies from 0.675 to 2.875 GeV

Differential cross sections for the reaction $\gamma p \to p \pi^0$ have been measured with the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) and a tagged photon beam with energies from 0.675 to 2.875 GeV. The results reported here possess greater accuracy in the absolute normalization than previous measurements. They disagree with recent CB-ELSA measurements for the process at forward scattering angles. Agreement with the SAID and MAID fits is found below 1 GeV. The present set of cross sections has been incorporated into the SAID database, and exploratory fits have been extended to 3 GeV. Resonance couplings have been extracted and compared to previous determinations.Comment: 18 pages, 48 figure

First Measurement of Beam-Recoil Observables Cx and Cz in Hyperon Photoproduction

Spin transfer from circularly polarized real photons to recoiling hyperons has been measured for the reactions $\vec\gamma + p \to K^+ + \vec\Lambda$ and $\vec\gamma + p \to K^+ + \vec\Sigma^0$. The data were obtained using the CLAS detector at Jefferson Lab for center-of-mass energies $W$ between 1.6 and 2.53 GeV, and for $-0.85<\cos\theta_{K^+}^{c.m.}< +0.95$. For the $\Lambda$, the polarization transfer coefficient along the photon momentum axis, $C_z$, was found to be near unity for a wide range of energy and kaon production angles. The associated transverse polarization coefficient, $C_x$, is smaller than $C_z$ by a roughly constant difference of unity. Most significantly, the {\it total} $\Lambda$ polarization vector, including the induced polarization $P$, has magnitude consistent with unity at all measured energies and production angles when the beam is fully polarized. For the $\Sigma^0$ this simple phenomenology does not hold. All existing hadrodynamic models are in poor agreement with these results.Comment: 28 pages, 18 figures, Submitted to Physical Review

Concert recording 2017-05-04b

[Track 1]. Fanfare for the common man / Aaron Copland -- [Track 2]. Bach Buch / J.S. Bach translated by Pann -- [Track 3]. Highway musings / Ryan Key -- [Track 4]. Serenade in D minor / Antonín Dvorák