The Year\u27s at the Spring

The year’s at the spring, And day’s at the morn; Morning’s at seven; The hillside’s dew pearled; The lark’s on the wing; The snail’s on the thorn; God’s in his heaven, God’s in his heaven, All’s right, All’s right with the world

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US AGRICULTURE

There is general consensus in the scientific literature that human-induced climate change has taken place and will continue to do so over the next century. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes with “very high confidence” that anthropogenic activities such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation have affected the global climate. The AR4 also indicates that global average temperatures are expected to increase by another 1.1°C to 5.4°C by 2100, depending on the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases that takes place during this time. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, temperature increases, altered precipitation patterns and other factors influenced by climate have already begun to impact U.S. agriculture. Climate change will continue to have significant effects on U.S. agriculture, water resources, land resources, and biodiversity in the future as temperature extremes begin exceeding thresholds that harm crop growth more frequently and precipitation and runoff patterns continue to change. In this study, we provide an assessment of the potential long-term implications of climate change on landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and production practices in the U.S., combining a crop process model (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model) and an economic model of the U.S. forestry and agricultural sector (Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). Agricultural producers have always faced numerous production and price risks, but forecasts of more rapid changes in climatic conditions in the future have raised concerns that these risks will increase in the future relative to historical conditions.climate change, crop yields, EPIC, FASOM, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, Q18, Q54,

Tobacco Farmer Interest and Success in Income Diversification

As farm income from tobacco production has declined in recent years, there has been increasing interest in identifying alternative sources of income for tobacco farmers in the southern United States The recent termination of the tobacco quota program has accelerated the exit of tobacco farmers and has heightened concern regarding the availability of substitutes for tobacco production. In this study, we examine factors influencing tobacco farmers’ attempts to identify profitable alternatives to tobacco, their off-farm employment behavior, and changes in acres of tobacco cultivated using survey data collected from a panel of North Carolina tobacco farmers combined with market datadiversification, farm programs, farmer survey, quota buyout, tobacco, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, C33, Q12, Q18,

Tobacco Farmer Interest and Success in Diversification

As U.S. farm income from tobacco production has declined in recent years, there has been increased interest in developing alternative sources of farm revenue to replace lost tobacco income, particularly in tobacco-dependent communities of the southeastern United States. The recent end of the tobacco quota program is expected to accelerate the exit of tobacco farmers and has heightened concern regarding the availability of profitable substitutes for tobacco. In this study, we examine the impact of farm, household, and market characteristics on tobacco farmer interest and success in on-farm and off-farm income diversification. Using survey data collected from a panel of North Carolina tobacco farmers in 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2004 combined with market data collected from secondary sources, we evaluate the influence of farmer preferences, resource endowments, market incentives, risk, and biophysical factors on tobacco farmers' attitudes regarding diversification into non-tobacco products, the extent to which they reallocated resources towards non-tobacco products, and their success in identifying profitable alternatives to tobacco production. Our research contributes empirical findings to the public dialogue concerning the ability of tobacco farmers and tobacco-dependent communities to adjust to structural changes taking place in the tobacco market.Tobacco, farm diversification, household model, quota buyout., Farm Management,

Cold storage for Iowa apples

Under present conditions of apple growing in Iowa temporary gluts are common in very many local markets from the time the earliest fruits begin to ripen till early autumn or mid autumn followed usually by an immediate shortage as soon as the early fruit passes out of season. This holds true to a constantly increasing extent from south central Iowa to the north boundary of the State. The result is low prices locally for much of the early fruit with high prices usually prevailing from mid autumn to the end of the season. Even though prices are high very often the available supply of winter apples is not first-class fruit. The experiments demonstrate that certain desirable fall apples which are hardy enough to be grown sucessfully even in northern Iowa, can be held in good market condition through the winter months if handled carefully and stored quickly. This makes it possible to maintain a supply of home-grown fruit till late winter or early spring even in those parts of Iowa where practically none but early apples are now grown

MODELING ALTERNATIVE POLICIES FOR GHG MITIGATION FROM FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE

A key consideration for development of energy and climate policy affecting the forestry and agricultural sectors is that the selection of specific mechanisms implemented to achieve bioenergy production and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets may have substantial effects on landowner incentives to adopt alternative practices. For instance, the prices of allowances and offsets are expected to diverge under some policies being considered where there is a binding cap on the quantity of offsets from the agricultural and forest sectors. In addition, provisions that limit or exclude specific practices from receiving carbon payments will affect the quantity and cost of GHG mitigation opportunities available. In this study, the recently updated Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with GHGs (FASOMGHG) was used to estimate GHG mitigation potential for private land in the contiguous U.S. under a variety of GHG price policies. Model scenarios suggest that U.S. forestry and agriculture could provide mitigation of 200 – 1000 megatons carbon dioxide equivalent per year (Mt CO2e/year) at carbon prices of $15 to$50/tCO2e. Binding limits on offsets have increasingly large effects on both the total magnitude and distribution of GHG mitigation across options over time. In addition, discounting or excluding payments for forest sinks can reduce annualized land-based mitigation potential 37-90 percent relative to the full eligibility scenario whereas discounting or excluding agricultural practices reduces mitigation potential by less than 10 percent.Climate policy, energy policy, FASOMGHG, GHG mitigation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, Q42, Q54,

Global Implications of U.S. Biofuels Policies in an Integrated Partial and General Equilibrium Framework

With the increasing research interests in biofuels, global implications of biofuels production have been generally examined either in a partial equilibrium (PE) or general equilibrium (GE) frameworks. Though both of these approaches have unique strengths, they also suffer from many limitations due to complexity of addressing all the relevant aspects of biofuels. In this paper we have exploited the strengths of both PE and GE approaches for analyzing the economic and environmental implications of the U.S. policies on corn-ethanol and biodiesel production. In this study, we utilize the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOMGHG: Adams et al. 1996, 2005; Beach et al. 2009), a non-linear programming, PE model for the United States. We also use the GTAP-BIO model (Birur et al. 2008), a multi-region, multi-sector CGE model for global-scale assessment of biofuels policies. Following Britz and Hertel (2009), we link the GTAP-BIO model through a static, quadratic restricted revenue function obtained from perturbing crop prices from the FASOMGHG model. With this linkage we implement the U.S. Corn ethanol and biodiesel scenarios in the GTAP-BIO model and obtain the FASOMGHG-consistent, global land use changes. The resulting crop price changes from the GE model are fed back into the FASOMGHG model to obtain the disaggregated impacts in the U.S.Biofuels, Indirect land use change, Land use emissions, Partial Equilibrium, Computable General Equilibrium, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

A reliable Pade analytical continuation method based on a high accuracy symbolic computation algorithm

We critique a Pade analytic continuation method whereby a rational polynomial function is fit to a set of input points by means of a single matrix inversion. This procedure is accomplished to an extremely high accuracy using a novel symbolic computation algorithm. As an example of this method in action we apply it to the problem of determining the spectral function of a one-particle thermal Green's function known only at a finite number of Matsubara frequencies with two example self energies drawn from the T-matrix theory of the Hubbard model. We present a systematic analysis of the effects of error in the input points on the analytic continuation, and this leads us to propose a procedure to test quantitatively the reliability of the resulting continuation, thus eliminating the black magic label frequently attached to this procedure.Comment: 11 pages, 8 eps figs, revtex format; revised version includes reference to anonymous ftp site containing example codes (MapleVr5.1 worksheets) displaying the implementation of the algorithm, including the padematinv.m library packag