A simulation scenario based mixed integer programming approach to airline reserve crew scheduling under uncertainty

The environment in which airlines operate is uncertain for many reasons, for example due to the effects of weather, traffic or crew unavailability (due to delay or sickness). This work focuses on airline reserve crew scheduling under crew absence uncertainty and delay for an airline operating a single hub and spoke network. Reserve crew can be used to cover absent crew or delayed connecting crew. A fixed number of reserve crew are available for scheduling and each requires a daily standby duty start time. This work proposes a mixed integer programming approach to scheduling the airline’s reserve crew. A simulation of the airline’s operations with stochastic journey time and crew absence inputs (without reserve crew) is used to generate input disruption scenarios for the mixed integer programming simulation scenario model (MIPSSM) formulation. Each disruption scenario corresponds to a record of all of the disruptions that may occur on the day of operation which are solvable by using reserve crew. A set of disruption scenarios form the input of the MIPSSM formulation, which has the objective of finding the reserve crew schedule that minimises the overall level of disruption over the set of input scenarios. Additionally, modifications of the MIPSSM are explored, a heuristic solution approach and a reserve use policy derived from the MIPSSM are introduced. A heuristic based on the proposed MIPSSM outperforms a range of alternative approaches. The heuristic solution approach suggests that including the right disruption scenarios is as important as the quantity of disruption scenarios that are added to the MIPSSM. An investigation into what makes a good set of scenarios is also presented

NGTS-11 b (TOI-1847 b): A Transiting Warm Saturn Recovered from a TESS Single-transit Event

We report the discovery of NGTS-11 b (=TOI-1847 b), a transiting Saturn in a 35.46-day orbit around a mid K-type star (Teff=5050 K). We initially identified the system from a single-transit event in a TESS full-frame image light-curve. Following seventy-nine nights of photometric monitoring with an NGTS telescope, we observed a second full transit of NGTS-11 b approximately one year after the TESS single-transit event. The NGTS transit confirmed the parameters of the transit signal and restricted the orbital period to a set of 13 discrete periods. We combined our transit detections with precise radial velocity measurements to determine the true orbital period and measure the mass of the planet. We find NGTS-11 b has a radius of 0.817+0.028-0.032 $R_J$, a mass of 0.344+0.092-0.073 $M_J$, and an equilibrium temperature of just 435+34-32 K, making it one of the coolest known transiting gas giants. NGTS-11 b is the first exoplanet to be discovered after being initially identified as a TESS single-transit event, and its discovery highlights the power of intense photometric monitoring in recovering longer-period transiting exoplanets from single-transit events

The Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS)

© 2017 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. We describe the Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS), which is a ground-based project searching for transiting exoplanets orbiting bright stars. NGTS builds on the legacy of previous surveys, most notably WASP, and is designed to achieve higher photometric precision and hence find smaller planets than have previously been detected from the ground. It also operates in red light,maximizing sensitivity to late K and earlyMdwarf stars. The survey specifications call for photometric precision of 0.1 per cent in red light over an instantaneous field of view of 100 deg 2 , enabling the detection of Neptune-sized exoplanets around Sun-like stars and super-Earths around M dwarfs. The survey is carried out with a purpose-built facility at Cerro Paranal, Chile, which is the premier site of the European Southern Observatory (ESO). An array of twelve 20 cm f/2.8 telescopes fitted with back-illuminated deep-depletion CCD cameras is used to survey fields intensively at intermediateGalactic latitudes. The instrument is also ideally suited to ground-based photometric follow-up of exoplanet candidates from space telescopes such as TESS, Gaia and PLATO. We present observations that combine precise autoguiding and the superb observing conditions at Paranal to provide routine photometric precision of 0.1 per cent in 1 h for stars with I-band magnitudes brighter than 13. We describe the instrument and data analysis methods as well as the status of the survey, which achieved first light in 2015 and began full-survey operations in 2016. NGTS data will be made publicly available through the ESO archive

The Cultural Project : Formal Chronological Modelling of the Early and Middle Neolithic Sequence in Lower Alsace

Starting from questions about the nature of cultural diversity, this paper examines the pace and tempo of change and the relative importance of continuity and discontinuity. To unravel the cultural project of the past, we apply chronological modelling of radiocarbon dates within a Bayesian statistical framework, to interrogate the Neolithic cultural sequence in Lower Alsace, in the upper Rhine valley, in broad terms from the later sixth to the end of the fifth millennium cal BC. Detailed formal estimates are provided for the long succession of cultural groups, from the early Neolithic Linear Pottery culture (LBK) to the Bischheim Occidental du Rhin Supérieur (BORS) groups at the end of the Middle Neolithic, using seriation and typology of pottery as the starting point in modelling. The rate of ceramic change, as well as frequent shifts in the nature, location and density of settlements, are documented in detail, down to lifetime and generational timescales. This reveals a Neolithic world in Lower Alsace busy with comings and goings, tinkerings and adjustments, and relocations and realignments. A significant hiatus is identified between the end of the LBK and the start of the Hinkelstein group, in the early part of the fifth millennium cal BC. On the basis of modelling of existing dates for other parts of the Rhineland, this appears to be a wider phenomenon, and possible explanations are discussed; full reoccupation of the landscape is only seen in the Grossgartach phase. Radical shifts are also proposed at the end of the Middle Neolithic

A resonant sextuplet of sub-Neptunes transiting the bright star HD 110067

Planets with radii between that of the Earth and Neptune (hereafter referred to as ‘sub-Neptunes’) are found in close-in orbits around more than half of all Sun-like stars 1,2. However, their composition, formation and evolution remain poorly understood 3. The study of multiplanetary systems offers an opportunity to investigate the outcomes of planet formation and evolution while controlling for initial conditions and environment. Those in resonance (with their orbital periods related by a ratio of small integers) are particularly valuable because they imply a system architecture practically unchanged since its birth. Here we present the observations of six transiting planets around the bright nearby star HD 110067. We find that the planets follow a chain of resonant orbits. A dynamical study of the innermost planet triplet allowed the prediction and later confirmation of the orbits of the rest of the planets in the system. The six planets are found to be sub-Neptunes with radii ranging from 1.94R ⊕ to 2.85R ⊕. Three of the planets have measured masses, yielding low bulk densities that suggest the presence of large hydrogen-dominated atmospheres

TOI-431/HIP 26013: a super-Earth and a sub-Neptune transiting a bright, early K dwarf, with a third RV planet

We present the bright (Vmag = 9.12), multiplanet system TOI-431, characterized with photometry and radial velocities (RVs). We estimate the stellar rotation period to be 30.5 ± 0.7 d using archival photometry and RVs. Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) objects of Interest (TOI)-431 b is a super-Earth with a period of 0.49 d, a radius of 1.28 ± 0.04 R⊕, a mass of 3.07 ± 0.35 M⊕, and a density of 8.0 ± 1.0 g cm−3; TOI-431 d is a sub-Neptune with a period of 12.46 d, a radius of 3.29 ± 0.09 R⊕, a mass of 9.90+1.53−1.49 M⊕, and a density of 1.36 ± 0.25 g cm−3. We find a third planet, TOI-431 c, in the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher RV data, but it is not seen to transit in the TESS light curves. It has an Msin i of 2.83+0.41−0.34 M⊕, and a period of 4.85 d. TOI-431 d likely has an extended atmosphere and is one of the most well-suited TESS discoveries for atmospheric characterization, while the super-Earth TOI-431 b may be a stripped core. These planets straddle the radius gap, presenting an interesting case-study for atmospheric evolution, and TOI-431 b is a prime TESS discovery for the study of rocky planet phase curves