Performance of the Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commission: memorandum for the House of Commons Work and Pensions Committee

"This memorandum has been prepared for the House of Commons Work and Pensions Committee to provide an update on the performance of the current statutory child maintenance schemes, following completion of a three year improvement plan. This memorandum also sets out the progress made by the Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commission towards redesigning the child maintenance system in Great Britain, as set out in the Child Maintenance and Other Payments Act 2008" - clause 1.

Velocity Segregation and Systematic Biases In Velocity Dispersion Estimates With the SPT-GMOS Spectroscopic Survey

The velocity distribution of galaxies in clusters is not universal; rather, galaxies are segregated according to their spectral type and relative luminosity. We examine the velocity distributions of different populations of galaxies within 89 Sunyaev Zel'dovich (SZ) selected galaxy clusters spanning $0.28 < z < 1.08$. Our sample is primarily draw from the SPT-GMOS spectroscopic survey, supplemented by additional published spectroscopy, resulting in a final spectroscopic sample of 4148 galaxy spectra---2868 cluster members. The velocity dispersion of star-forming cluster galaxies is $17\pm4$% greater than that of passive cluster galaxies, and the velocity dispersion of bright ($m < m^{*}-0.5$) cluster galaxies is $11\pm4$% lower than the velocity dispersion of our total member population. We find good agreement with simulations regarding the shape of the relationship between the measured velocity dispersion and the fraction of passive vs. star-forming galaxies used to measure it, but we find a small offset between this relationship as measured in data and simulations in which suggests that our dispersions are systematically low by as much as 3\% relative to simulations. We argue that this offset could be interpreted as a measurement of the effective velocity bias that describes the ratio of our observed velocity dispersions and the intrinsic velocity dispersion of dark matter particles in a published simulation result. Measuring velocity bias in this way suggests that large spectroscopic surveys can improve dispersion-based mass-observable scaling relations for cosmology even in the face of velocity biases, by quantifying and ultimately calibrating them out.Comment: Accepted to ApJ; 21 pages, 11 figures, 5 table

Tree demographics and soil charcoal evidence of fire disturbances in an inaccessible forest atop the Mount Lico inselberg, Mozambique

(1) Research aims and rationaleThe sheer rock cliffs of the Mount Lico inselberg, northern Mozambique, is relatively inaccessible to people. A 0.57 km2 forest covers the top of the isolated mountain and the tree demographics and soil offer an opportunity to investigate the long term fire ecology of the forests of the western, leeside of the mountain and potential for changing regional hydroclimate of the Late Holocene. (2) MethodsOn the western side of the mountaintop, a 20x20 m plot was surveyed for tree taxa , heights, and bole diameters. A 220 cm deep pit was dug into the forest soil and analysed to describe the soil texture and carbon content. C harcoal was quantified on sieved subsamples and classified into charcoal morphologies that were then grouped by how readily entrainable on an index score. Three radiocarbon dates were collected from pieces charcoal. (3) ResultsThe forest is a combination of montane and woodland tree taxa that differed from the older, more mesic eastern side and reflected differential disturbance patterns. The reddish loam soils dated to the Middle Holocene. Charcoal was present in all soil subsamples and varied little until increasing consistently during the past millennium. The charcoal morphologies suggested a combination of locally-derived charcoal and charcoal derived from the surrounding lowlands with the latter increasing in the past centuries. (4) Main conclusionsFew Holocene paleoenvironmental records have been developed from tropical soils in Africa and are useful in locations that do not host lakes and wetlands. Both tree demographics and soil charcoal suggest that changing forest disturbance regimes began during the past millennium. An understanding of history informs future conservation and appropriate management of these special places.<br/

Early Neolithic Pits at Principal Place, Shoreditch, London Borough of Hackney

A group of four pits excavated in the upper Walbrook valley at Principal Place, Shoreditch by MOLA in 2015 produced the largest assemblage of Early Neolithic Bowl pottery recovered to date from the City of London and its immediate surrounds. The Neolithic pits had been fortuitously preserved within part of the northern extramural Roman cemetery of Londinium and conjoining sherds of Bowl pottery were also recovered from the fill of an isolated late Roman cremation. A range of analyses showed that the vessels – comprising essentially Plain Bowl with some Decorated Bowl, the latter incorporating Peterborough Ware traits – were probably locally made and had been used to process dairy products and to stew beef and mutton (though not pork). Radiocarbon dating of the lipids absorbed within the vessel walls – employing a novel technique developed at the University of Bristol – suggest that the pottery was being used in the mid-fourth millennium cal BC. The pits also contained small assemblages of struck flint, fauna (some burnt) and archaeobotanical remains (some intrusive) and may have been filled using material drawn from a long-vanished ‘pre-pit’ source, possibly a midden; they presumably represent episodic activity on the part of semi-sedentary Neolithic communities

Exfoliative cytology for diagnosing basal cell carcinoma and other skin cancers in adults

Background: Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is essential to guide appropriate management and to reduce morbidity and improve survival. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually localised to the skin with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue, while cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) and melanoma have a much higher potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death. Exfoliative cytology is a non–invasive test that uses the Tzanck smear technique to identify disease by examining the structure of cells obtained from scraped samples. This simple procedure is a less invasive diagnostic test than a skin biopsy, and for BCC has the potential to provide an immediate diagnosis that avoids an additional visit to clinic to receive skin biopsy results. This may benefit patients scheduled for either Mohs micrographic surgery or non–surgical treatments such as radiotherapy. A cytology scrape can never give the same information as a skin biopsy, however, so it is important to know more about which skin cancer situations it may be helpful.Objectives: The primary objective was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of exfoliative cytology for the detection of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in adults. Secondary objectives were to determine diagnostic accuracy for the detection of i) cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, ii) invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, and iii) any skin cancer, including keratinocyte skin cancer, invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, or any other skin cancer.Search methods: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We also studied the reference lists of published systematic review articles.Selection criteria: Studies evaluating exfoliative cytology in adults with lesions suspicious for BCC, cSCC or melanoma, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation.Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS-2). Where possible we estimated summary sensitivities and specificities using the bivariate hierarchical model.Main results: This review reports on nine studies with a total of 1655 lesions including 1120 BCCs (14 datasets), 401 lesions with 44 cSCCs (two datasets), and 200 lesions with 10 melanomas (one dataset). Three of these datasets (one each for BCC, melanoma, and any malignant condition) were derived from one study which also performed a direct comparison with dermoscopy. Studies were of moderate to poor quality providing inadequate descriptions of participant selection, thresholds used to make cytological and histological diagnoses, and blinding. Reporting of patients’ prior referral pathways was particularly poor, as were descriptions of the cytodiagnostic criteria used to make diagnoses. No studies evaluated the use of exfoliative cytology as a primary diagnostic test for detecting BCC or other skin cancers in lesions suspicious for skin cancer. Pooled data from seven studies using standard cytomorphological criteria (but various stain methods) to detect BCC in patients with a high clinical suspicion of BCC estimated the sensitivity and specificity of exfoliative cytology as 97.5% (95% CI: 94.5 to 98.9%) and 90.1% (95% CI: 81.1 to 95.1%) respectively. When applied to a hypothetical population of 1000 clinically suspected BCC lesions with a median observed BCC prevalence of 86%, exfoliative cytology would miss 21 BCCs and would lead to 14 false positive diagnoses of BCC. No false positive cases were histologically confirmed to be melanoma. Insufficient data are available to make summary statements regarding the accuracy of exfoliative cytology to detect melanoma or cSCC, or its accuracy compared to dermoscopy.Authors' conclusions: The utility of exfoliative cytology for the primary diagnosis of skin cancer is unknown, as all included studies focused on the use of this technique for confirming strongly suspected clinical diagnoses. For the confirmation of BCC in lesions with a high clinical suspicion, there is evidence of high sensitivity and specificity for exfoliative cytology. Since decisions to treat low riskBCCs are unlikely in practice to require diagnostic confirmation given that clinical suspicion is already high, exfoliative cytology might be most useful for cases of BCC where the treatments being contemplated require a tissue diagnosis (e.g. radiotherapy). The small number of included studies, poor reporting and varying methodological quality means that no strong conclusions can currently be drawn to guide clinical practice. Despite insufficient data on the use of cytology for cSCC or melanoma, it is unlikely that cytology would be useful in these scenarios since preservation of the architecture of the whole lesion that would be available from a biopsy provides crucial diagnostic information. Given the paucity of good quality data, appropriately designed prospective comparative studies may be required to evaluate both the diagnostic value of exfoliative cytology by comparison to dermoscopy, and its confirmatory value in adequately reported populations with a high probability of BCC scheduled for further treatment requiring a tissue diagnosis

Rapid Transmission of a Hyper-Virulent Meningococcal Clone Due to High Effective Contact Numbers and Super Spreaders

© Copyright © 2020 Holmes, Green, Oldfield, Turner and Bayliss. Rapid transmission, a critical contributory factor in outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease, requires naïve populations of sufficient size and intermingling. We examined genomic variability and transmission dynamics in a student population subject to an 11-fold increase in carriage of a hypervirulent Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W ST-11 clone. Phylogenetic clusters, mutation and recombination rates were derived by bioinformatic analyses of whole-genome sequencing data. Transmission dynamics were determined by combining observed carriage rates, cluster sizes and distributions with simple SIS models. Between 9 and 15 genetically-distinct clusters were detected and associated with seven residential halls. Clusters had low mutation accumulation rates and infrequent recombination events. Modeling indicated that effective contacts decreased from 10 to 2 per day between the start and mid-point of the university term. Transmission rates fluctuated between 1 and 4% while the R(t) for carriage decreased from an initial rate of 47 to 1. Decreases in transmission values correlated with a rise in vaccine-induced immunity. Observed carriage dynamics could be mimicked by populations containing 20% of super spreaders with 2.3-fold higher effective contact rates. We conclude that spread of this hypervirulent ST-11 meningococcal clone depends on the levels of effective contacts and immunity rather than genomic variability. Additionally, we propose that super-spreaders enhance meningococcal transmission and that a 70% MenACWY immunization level is sufficient to retard, but not fully prevent, meningococcal spread in close-contact populations

Simultaneous infrared and optical observations of the transiting debris cloud around WD 1145+017

We present multiwavelength photometric monitoring of WD 1145+017, a white dwarf exhibiting periodic dimming events interpreted to be the transits of orbiting, disintegrating planetesimals. Our observations include the first set of near-infrared light curves for the object, obtained on multiple nights over the span of 1 month, and recorded multiple transit events with depths varying between ∼20 and 50 per cent. Simultaneous near-infrared and optical observations of the deepest and longest duration transit event were obtained on two epochs with the Anglo-Australian Telescope and three optical facilities, over the wavelength range of 0.5–1.2μm. These observations revealed no measurable difference in transit depths for multiple photometric pass bands, allowing us to place a 2σ lower limit of 0.8μm on the grain size in the putative transiting debris cloud. This conclusion is consistent with the spectral energy distribution of the system, which can be fit with an optically thin debris disc with minimum particle sizes of 10+5−3μm