Fractional diffusion emulates a human mobility network during a simulated disease outbreak

From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between contact nodes. In some cases, transport can be parameterized with gravity-type models or approximated by a diffusive random walk. As a alternative, we have isolated intranational commercial air traffic as a case study for the utility of non-diffusive, heavy-tailed transport models. We implemented new stochastic simulations of a prototypical influenza-like infection, focusing on the dense, highly-connected United States air travel network. We show that mobility on this network can be described mainly by a power law, in agreement with previous studies. Remarkably, we find that the global evolution of an outbreak on this network is accurately reproduced by a two-parameter space-fractional diffusion equation, such that those parameters are determined by the air travel network.Comment: 26 pages, 4 figure

A Stochastic Model for Microtubule Motors Describes the In Vivo Cytoplasmic Transport of Human Adenovirus

Cytoplasmic transport of organelles, nucleic acids and proteins on microtubules is usually bidirectional with dynein and kinesin motors mediating the delivery of cargoes in the cytoplasm. Here we combine live cell microscopy, single virus tracking and trajectory segmentation to systematically identify the parameters of a stochastic computational model of cargo transport by molecular motors on microtubules. The model parameters are identified using an evolutionary optimization algorithm to minimize the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the in silico and the in vivo run length and velocity distributions of the viruses on microtubules. The present stochastic model suggests that bidirectional transport of human adenoviruses can be explained without explicit motor coordination. The model enables the prediction of the number of motors active on the viral cargo during microtubule-dependent motions as well as the number of motor binding sites, with the protein hexon as the binding site for the motors

Fractional Diffusion Emulates a Human Mobility Network during a Simulated Disease Outbreak

Mobility networks facilitate the growth of populations, the success of invasive species, and the spread of communicable diseases among social animals, including humans. Disease control and elimination efforts, especially during an outbreak, can be optimized by numerical modeling of disease dynamics on transport networks. This is especially true when incidence data from an emerging epidemic is sparse and unreliable. However, mobility networks can be complex, challenging to characterize, and expensive to simulate with agent-based models. We therefore studied a parsimonious model for spatiotemporal disease dynamics based on a fractional diffusion equation. We implemented new stochastic simulations of a prototypical influenza-like infection spreading through the United States' highly-connected air travel network. We found that the national-averaged infected fraction during an outbreak is accurately reproduced by a space-fractional diffusion equation consistent with the connectivity of airports. Fractional diffusion therefore seems to be a better model of network outbreak dynamics than a diffusive model. Our fractional reaction-diffusion method and the result could be extended to other mobility networks in a variety of applications for population dynamics