Population trends, convictions and imprisonment: Demographic divergence, dichotomy and diversity

The links between population patterns and trends, and policy and planning for the justice system is important. The trends in the number of convictions and imprisonments by regional councils are investigated for the period 1986 to 2001. This does not just focus on Custodial sentences but also looks at other types of sentences such as monetary and community sentences. Additionally, a regional estimate of the muster in prison is derived to give “normal” place of residence of those in prison. The relationship of imprisonment to other factors such as income, unemployment, sickness/invalid benefit rates, labour force participation rates and ethnicity is investigated. Some policy implications of these findings are presented

The ‘ins and outs’ of work – diversity or homogeneity in New Zealand women’s employment patterns?

New Zealand has experienced sustained increases in women’s labour force participation since the post-war period. The Census of Population and Dwellings and the Household Labour Force Survey provide aggregate-level insights into labour force behaviour, relying on the compilation of cross-sectional data to provide indicators of long-term trends to women’s employment. What these data sources do not offer are clear pictures of the sequencing of women’s employment across the life course, in terms of periods in and out of work. These patterns have however been identified as key factors influencing women’s capacity to save and the persistence of gendered occupational status and earnings disparities. When observed across time, work patterns also provide insights to the changing overall lifetime attachment of women to the labour market. Using data from the 1995 sample survey New Zealand Women: Family, Employment, Education, we present descriptive findings on the work patterns of women born between 1936 and 1965, and use graphical techniques to depict these patterns in terms of spells in and out of work. A cohort perspective is taken. We then proceed to summarise the details of these individual work histories using summary measures which can then be corelated with potential explanatory factors

Demographic change and transport needs in the Waikato region

This report has been commissioned by Environment Waikato (EW) as part of its review of the Land Transport Strategy for the Waikato region. The report identifies key population characteristics that impact on transport needs of the EW region and the constituent Territorial Authority (TA) areas. In this context, vulnerable locations and populations are identified. Future trends for the EW region and sub-regions are assessed by means of low, medium and high population growth scenarios, and the implications of the projected changes in population size and composition for transport needs are identified. A general theme throughout this report is that in many respects demographic change in the Waikato region is not that different from that in New Zealand as a whole, but there are sharp differences between the constituent TA areas. The report covers changes in population size and structure, ethnic structure, the labour force, income, housing tenure and motor vehicle ownership, deprivation and projections of locally generated trips, the number of motor vehicles and travel to work flows. It is noted that a comprehensive assessment of transport need should embed demographic change into an integrated model of economic change in the region, combined with scenarios relating to external factors and policy changes

New Zealand women’s employment patterns: Diversity or homogeneity?

New Zealand has experienced sustained increases in women’s labour force participation since the post-war period. When observed across time, work patterns provide insights to the changing overall lifetime attachment of women to the labour market. Using data from the 1995 sample survey New Zealand Women: Family, Employment, Education, we present descriptive findings on the work patterns of women born between 1936 and 1965, and depict these patterns in terms of spells in and out of work. A cohort perspective is taken. We then proceed to summarise the details of these individual work histories using summary measures which can then be correlated with potential explanatory factors. The results show that by the age of 30, successive birth cohorts have experienced: (i) increasing complexities in their work and non-work trajectories; (ii) childbearing continues to depress women’s engagement in paid work across time; and (iii) the influence of educational attainment and ethnicity seems to be changing

Components of regional population growth, 1986-2001

The vitality of a region is frequently assessed by looking at its population growth pattern. This is seen as being linked to its economic and social vibrancy. To better understand the dynamics of this growth pattern it is necessary to decompose population growth into the contributions of natural increase (births less deaths) and migration (both domestic and international). This provides a demographic accounting of the factors of population change which we use to analyse the degree to which the levels and impacts of these factors differ between the Regional Council Areas of New Zealand. We find large variations between Regional Council Areas in overall population growth for the three quinquennia between 1986 and 2001. The Auckland region experienced the largest growth, coming both from high natural increase and international migration, while the “sunbelt” regions of Bay of Plenty, Nelson-Tasman and Marlborough had high growth, but driven by internal migration. In other regions, such as Gisborne, West Coast and Southland population growth declined

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Incomes

This paper investigates income trends in the Regions of New Zealand between 1986 and 2001. It also looks at additional factors of age and ethnicity which have a bearing on the results. Investigations of median, upper and lower quartiles and inter-quartile ranges of personal income calculated from census data showed increasing inequalities between the regions. The distribution of income around New Zealand is also investigated. Auckland and Wellington increasingly have higher incomes than the other regions

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Labour market aspects of human capital

This paper provides an analysis of labour force participation, full and part-time work and unemployment, over the 1986 – 2001 period. Using a non-conventional estimation technique devised for this paper, the paper also looks at discouraged worker effects. It points to growth in regional inequality and the worrying impact of negative labour market effects on ages 30- 44 years that are central to both the economic and family life of the nation. Using a custom designed method to assess “discouraged worker” effects, this paper shows that such effects are probably higher than the levels shown in official statistics that are constrained by narrowly defined criteria

Description and spatial analysis of employment change in New Zealand regions 1986-2001

Over the last two decades New Zealand has undergone fundamental economic restructuring, and phases of slow and rapid growth, which have resulted in some dramatic changes in the regional economies. This paper provides a detailed multiperiod shift-share analysis over three intercensal periods between 1986 and 2001 on changes in regional employment outcomes at two levels of spatial disaggregation: 29 Administrative Regions (ARs), based on Regional Council areas, and 58 Labour Market Areas (LMAs) that have economically meaningful (commuting determined) boundaries. The contributions to employment outcomes of national trends, sectoral composition within regions, structural change, and local conditions are identified. A four-category disaggregation of regional employment into sex, age, occupation and industry is also undertaken. The results show a dichotomy between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, but also several distinct clusters among the latter. Regional competitive advantage is clearly linked with net inward migration. There is also evidence of significantly positive spatial autocorrelation in the competitive effect. Local indicators of spatial association help to identify regions that stand out in terms of being surrounded by similar regions, or by regions that are just the opposite, in terms of the competitive effect. Interestingly, regional population growth precedes the competitive component of employment growth rather than just being a symptom of it

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Household and families, and their dwellings

Household structures and patterns of home ownership can have important implications for the wellbeing of populations. This paper explores regional differences in Household Structure and Home ownership for the period 1986 to 2001. Over this period there have been some major changes in the distribution of different household structures with a move away from the Two-parent household to other household types, such as Couple Only and Single-person households. Over the same period rates of home ownership have dropped. This paper shows that the patterns and trends for household structures and dwelling tenure vary significantly between regions. This reflects both overall national trends and inequalities between regions

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Dependency and development of social capital

The development of social capital is significantly affected by benefit dependency of the population. This paper investigates measures of social cohesion and measures of dependency on society across the regions of New Zealand. Some of the measures looked at specifically are social security benefit use and convictions, custodial sentences and the prison muster across regions. The paper also focuses on housing and specifically considers overcrowding