Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. [..]Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 9 tables. Revised version; accepted for publication in Geoscientific Model Development on 13 February 201

Quasars, their host galaxies, and their central black holes

We present the final results from our deep HST imaging study of the hosts of radio-quiet quasars (RQQs), radio-loud quasars (RLQs) and radio galaxies (RGs). We describe new WFPC2 R-band observations for 14 objects and model these images in conjunction with the data already reported in McLure et al (1999). We find that spheroidal hosts become more prevalent with increasing nuclear luminosity such that, for nuclear luminosities M_V < -23.5, the hosts of both radio-loud and radio-quiet AGN are virtually all massive ellipticals. Moreover we demonstrate that the basic properties of these hosts are indistinguishable from those of quiescent, evolved, low-redshift ellipticals of comparable mass. This result kills any lingering notion that radio-loudness is determined by host-galaxy morphology, and also sets severe constraints on evolutionary schemes which attempt to link low-z ULIRGs with RQQs. Instead, we show that our results are as expected given the relationship between black-hole and spheroid mass established for nearby galaxies, and apply this relation to estimate the mass of the black hole in each object. The results agree very well with completely-independent estimates based on nuclear emission-line widths; all the quasars in our sample have M(bh) > 5 x 10^8 solar masses, while the radio-loud objects are confined to M(bh) > 10^9 solar masses. This apparent mass-threshold difference, which provides a natural explanation for why RQQs outnumber RLQs by a factor of 10, appears to reflect the existence of a minimum and maximum level of black-hole radio output which is a strong function of black-hole mass. Finally, we use our results to estimate the fraction of massive spheroids/black-holes which produce quasar-level activity. This fraction is \~0.1% at the present day, rising to > 10% at z = 2-3.Comment: Revised version accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 46 pages, the final 19 of which comprise an Appendix. 15 figures in main text. A further 14 4-panel greyscale plots and 14 line plots which appear in the Appendix have been reproduced here with reduced quality due to space limitations. A full resolution copy of the manuscript can be obtained via ftp://ftp.roe.ac.uk/pub/jsd/dunlop2002.ps.g

Extended emission around GPS radio sources

Extended radio emission detected around a sample of GHz Peaked Spectrum (GPS) radio sources is discussed. Evidence for extended emission which is related to the GPS source is found in 6 objects out of 33. Three objects are associated with quasars with core-jet pc-scale morphology, and three are identified with galaxies with symmetric (CSO) radio morphology. We conclude that the core-jet GPS quasars are likely to be beamed objects with a continuous supply of energy from the core to the kpc scale. It is also possible that low surface brightness extended radio emission is present in other GPS quasars but the emission is below our detection limit due to the high redshifts of the objects. On the other hand, the CSO/galaxies with extended large scale emission may be rejuvenated sources where the extended emission is the relic of previous activity. In general, the presence of large scale emission associated with GPS galaxies is uncommon, suggesting that in the context of the recurrent activity model, the time scale between subsequent bursts is in general longer than the radiative lifetime of the radio emission from the earlier activity.Comment: 18 paged, 18 figures, accepted for publication on A&

Recombination dramatically speeds up evolution of finite populations

We study the role of recombination, as practiced by genetically-competent bacteria, in speeding up Darwinian evolution. This is done by adding a new process to a previously-studied Markov model of evolution on a smooth fitness landscape; this new process allows alleles to be exchanged with those in the surrounding medium. Our results, both numerical and analytic, indicate that for a wide range of intermediate population sizes, recombination dramatically speeds up the evolutionary advance

Untangling the Conceptual Isssues Raised in Reydon and Scholz’s Critique of Organizational Ecology and Darwinian Populations

Reydon and Scholz raise doubts about the Darwinian status of organizational ecology by arguing that Darwinian principles are not applicable to organizational populations. Although their critique of organizational ecology’s typological essentialism is correct, they go on to reject the Darwinian status of organizational populations. This paper claims that the distinction between replicators and interactors, raised in modern philosophy of biology but not discussed by Reydon and Scholz, points the way forward for organizational ecologists. It is possible to conceptualise evolving Darwinian populations providing the inheritance mechanism is appropriately specified. By this approach, adaptation and selection are no longer dichotomised, and the evolutionary significance of knowledge transmission is highlightedPeer reviewe

Stormy weather in 3C 196.1: nuclear outbursts and merger events shape the environment of the hybrid radio galaxy 3C 196.1

We present a multi-wavelength analysis based on archival radio, optical and X-ray data of the complex radio source 3C 196.1, whose host is the brightest cluster galaxy of a $z=0.198$ cluster. HST data show H$\alpha$+[N II] emission aligned with the jet 8.4 GHz radio emission. An H$\alpha$+[N II] filament coincides with the brightest X-ray emission, the northern hotspot. Analysis of the X-ray and radio images reveals cavities located at galactic- and cluster- scales. The galactic-scale cavity is almost devoid of 8.4 GHz radio emission and the south-western H$\alpha$+[N II] emission is bounded (in projection) by this cavity. The outer cavity is co-spatial with the peak of 147 MHz radio emission, and hence we interpret this depression in X-ray surface brightness as being caused by a buoyantly rising bubble originating from an AGN outburst $\sim$280 Myrs ago. A \textit{Chandra} snapshot observation allowed us to constrain the physical parameters of the cluster, which has a cool core with a low central temperature $\sim$2.8 keV, low central entropy index $\sim$13 keV cm$^2$ and a short cooling time of $\sim$500 Myr, which is $<0.05$ of the age of the Universe at this redshift. By fitting jumps in the X-ray density we found Mach numbers between 1.4 and 1.6, consistent with a shock origin. We also found compelling evidence of a past merger, indicated by a morphology reminiscent of gas sloshing in the X-ray residual image. Finally, we computed the pressures, enthalpies $E_{cav}$ and jet powers $P_{jet}$ associated with the cavities: $E_{cav}\sim7\times10^{58}$ erg, $P_{jet}\sim1.9\times10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$ for the inner cavity and $E_{cav}\sim3\times10^{60}$ erg, $P_{jet}\sim3.4\times10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$ for the outer cavity.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, ApJ accepte

Two Clusters with Radio-quiet Cooling Cores

Radio lobes inflated by active galactic nuclei at the centers of clusters are a promising candidate for halting condensation in clusters with short central cooling times because they are common in such clusters. In order to test the AGN-heating hypothesis, we obtained Chandra observations of two clusters with short central cooling times yet no evidence for AGN activity: Abell 1650 and Abell 2244. The cores of these clusters indeed appear systematically different from cores with more prominent radio emission. They do not have significant central temperature gradients, and their central entropy levels are markedly higher than in clusters with stronger radio emission, corresponding to central cooling times ~ 1 Gigayear. Also, there is no evidence for fossil X-ray cavities produced by an earlier episode of AGN heating. We suggest that either (1) the central gas has not yet cooled to the point at which feedback is necessary to prevent it from condensing, possibly because it is conductively stabilized, or (2) the gas experienced a major heating event $\gtrsim 1$ Gyr in the past and has not required feedback since then. The fact that these clusters with no evident feedback have higher central entropy and therefore longer central cooling times than clusters with obvious AGN feedback strongly suggests that AGNs supply the feedback necessary to suppress condensation in clusters with short central cooling times.Comment: ApJ Letter, in pres