Multi-agent simulation: new approaches to exploring space-time dynamics in GIS

As part of the long term quest to develop more disaggregate, temporally dynamic models of spatial behaviour, micro-simulation has evolved to the point where the actions of many individuals can be computed. These multi-agent systems/simulation(MAS) models are a consequence of much better micro data, more powerful and user-friendly computer environments often based on parallel processing, and the generally recognised need in spatial science for modelling temporal process. In this paper, we develop a series of multi-agent models which operate in cellular space.These demonstrate the well-known principle that local action can give rise to global pattern but also how such pattern emerges as the consequence of positive feedback and learned behaviour. We first summarise the way cellular representation is important in adding new process functionality to GIS, and the way this is effected through ideas from cellular automata (CA) modelling. We then outline the key ideas of multi-agent simulation and this sets the scene for three applications to problems involving the use of agents to explore geographic space. We first illustrate how agents can be programmed to search route networks, finding shortest routes in adhoc as well as structured ways equivalent to the operation of the Bellman-Dijkstra algorithm. We then demonstrate how the agent-based approach can be used to simulate the dynamics of water flow, implying that such models can be used to effectively model the evolution of river systems. Finally we show how agents can detect the geometric properties of space, generating powerful results that are notpossible using conventional geometry, and we illustrate these ideas by computing the visual fields or isovists associated with different viewpoints within the Tate Gallery.Our forays into MAS are all based on developing reactive agent models with minimal interaction and we conclude with suggestions for how these models might incorporate cognition, planning, and stronger positive feedbacks between agents

Reaction time and incident cancer: 25 years of follow-up of study members in the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey

<b>Objectives</b><p></p> To investigate the association of reaction time with cancer incidence.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> 6900 individuals aged 18 to 94 years who participated in the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey in 1984/1985 and were followed for a cancer registration for 25 years.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> Disease surveillance gave rise to 1015 cancer events from all sites. In general, there was essentially no clear pattern of association for either simple or choice reaction time with cancer of all sites combined, nor specific malignancies. However, selected associations were found for lung cancer, colorectal cancer and skin cancer.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> In the present study, reaction time and its components were not generally related to cancer risk

Local movement: agent-based models of pedestrian flows

Modelling movement within the built environment has hitherto been focused on rather coarse spatial scales where the emphasis has been upon simulating flows of traffic between origins and destinations. Models of pedestrian movement have been sporadic, based largely on finding statistical relationships between volumes and the accessibility of streets, with no sustained efforts at improving such theories. The development of object-orientated computing and agent-based models which have followed in this wake, promise to change this picture radically. It is now possible to develop models simulating the geometric motion of individual agents in small-scale environments using theories of traffic flow to underpin their logic. In this paper, we outline such a model which we adapt to simulate flows of pedestrians between fixed points of entry - gateways - into complex environments such as city centres, and points of attraction based on the location of retail and leisure facilities which represent the focus of such movements. The model simulates the movement of each individual in terms of five components; these are based on motion in the direction of the most attractive locations, forward movement, the avoidance of local geometric obstacles, thresholds which constrain congestion, and movement which is influenced by those already moving towards various locations. The model has elements which enable walkers to self-organise as well as learn from their geometric experiences so far. We first outline the structure of the model, present a computable form, and illustrate how it can be programmed as a variant of cellular automata. We illustrate it using three examples: its application to an idealised mall where we show how two key components - local navigation of obstacles and movement towards points of global locational attraction - can be parameterised, an application to the more complex town centre of Wolverhampton (in the UK West Midlands) where the paths of individual walkers are used to explore the veracity of the model, and finally it application to the Tate Gallery complex in central London where the focus is on calibrating the model by letting individual agents learn from their experience of walking within the environment

Relation between early life socioeconomic position and all cause mortality in two generations. A longitudinal study of Danish men born in 1953 and their parents

Objective: To examine (1) the relation between parental socioeconomic position and all cause mortality in two generations, (2) the relative importance of mother’s educational status and father’s occupational status on offspring mortality, and (3) the effect of factors in the family environment on these relations. Design: A longitudinal study with record linkage to the Civil Registration System. The data were analysed using Cox regression models. Setting: Copenhagen, Denmark. Subjects: 2890 men born in 1953, whose mothers were interviewed regarding family social background in 1968. The vital status of this population and their parents was ascertained from April 1968 to January 2002. Main outcome measures: All cause mortality in study participants, their mothers, and fathers. Results: A similar pattern of relations was found between parental social position and all cause mortality in adult life in the three triads of father, mother, and offspring constituted of the cohort of men born in 1953, their parents, and grandparents. The educational status of mothers showed no independent effect on total mortality when father’s occupational social class was included in the model in either of the triads. Low material wealth was the indicator that remained significantly associated with adult all cause mortality in a model also including parental social position and the intellectual climate of the family in 1968. In the men born in 1953 the influence of material wealth was strongest for deaths later in adult life. Conclusion: Father’s occupational social class is associated with adult mortality in all members of the mother-father-offspring triad. Material wealth seems to be an explanatory factor for this association

New technologies for urban designers: the VENUE project

In this report, we first outline the basic idea of VENUE. This involves developing digital tools froma foundation of geographic information systems (GIS) software which we then apply to urbandesign, a subject area and profession which has little tradition in using such tools. Our project wasto develop two types of tool, namely functional analysis based on embedding models of movementin local environments into GIS based on ideas from the field of space syntax; and secondlyfashioning these ideas in a wider digital context in which the entire range of GIS technologies werebrought to bear at the local scale. By local scale, we mean the representation of urban environmentsfrom about 1: 500 to around 1: 2500

GIS and urban design

Although urban planning has used computer models and information systems sincethe 1950s and architectural practice has recently restructured to the use of computeraideddesign (CAD) and computer drafting software, urban design has hardly beentouched by the digital world. This is about to change as very fine scale spatial datarelevant to such design becomes routinely available, as 2dimensional GIS(geographic information systems) become linked to 3dimensional CAD packages,and as other kinds of photorealistic media are increasingly being fused with thesesoftware. In this chapter, we present the role of GIS in urban design, outlining whatcurrent desktop software is capable of and showing how various new techniques canbe developed which make such software highly suitable as basis for urban design.We first outline the nature of urban design and then present ideas about how varioussoftware might form a tool kit to aid its process. We then look in turn at: utilisingstandard mapping capabilities within GIS relevant to urban design; buildingfunctional extensions to GIS which measure local scale accessibility; providingsketch planning capability in GIS and linking 2-d to 3-d visualisations using low costnet-enabled CAD browsers. We finally conclude with some speculations on thefuture of GIS for urban design across networks whereby a wide range of participantsmight engage in the design process digitally but remotely

The Network Analysis of Urban Streets: A Primal Approach

The network metaphor in the analysis of urban and territorial cases has a long tradition especially in transportation/land-use planning and economic geography. More recently, urban design has brought its contribution by means of the "space syntax" methodology. All these approaches, though under different terms like accessibility, proximity, integration,connectivity, cost or effort, focus on the idea that some places (or streets) are more important than others because they are more central. The study of centrality in complex systems,however, originated in other scientific areas, namely in structural sociology, well before its use in urban studies; moreover, as a structural property of the system, centrality has never been extensively investigated metrically in geographic networks as it has been topologically in a wide range of other relational networks like social, biological or technological. After two previous works on some structural properties of the dual and primal graph representations of urban street networks (Porta et al. cond-mat/0411241; Crucitti et al. physics/0504163), in this paper we provide an in-depth investigation of centrality in the primal approach as compared to the dual one, with a special focus on potentials for urban design.Comment: 19 page, 4 figures. Paper related to the paper "The Network Analysis of Urban Streets: A Dual Approach" cond-mat/041124

Cognitive Analytic Therapy in People with Learning Disability: An investigation into the common reciprocal roles found within this client group

Developments over the last twenty years have shown that, contrary to previous opinion, people with learning disabilities can benefit from psychotherapy (Sinason 1992; Kroese, Dagnan & Loumidia, 1997). Cognitive Analytic Therapy (CAT) has been adapted for use with a learning disability population (Ryle 2002). CAT collaboratively examines the Reciprocal Roles (RRs) a client plays in relationships. These are impacted by clients’ experiences of the world. The aim of this research is to identify which RRs may become apparent in working with people with learning disabilities. The therapy notes of participants (n=16) who had undergone CAT were examined and analysed using content analysis. Twenty-two different RRs were found. Four common Reciprocal Roles and two common idealised Reciprocal Roles were identified. Other observations about the data are presented. The limitations and clinical implications of the study are discussed

Comparison of individual and paired practice at pre-primer level

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit