Statistical modeling of agricultural chemical occurrence in midwestern rivers

Agricultural chemicals in surface water may constitute a human health risk or have adverse effects on aquatic life. Recent research on unregulated rivers in the midwestern USA documents that elevated concentrations of herbicides occur for 1–4 months following application in late spring and early summer. In contrast, nitrate concentrations in unregulated rivers are elevated during fall, winter, and spring months. Natural and anthropogenic variables of river drainage basins, such as soil permeability, amount of agricultural chemicals applied, or percentage of land planted in corn, affect agricultural chemical concentration and mass transport in rivers. Presented is an analysis of selected data on agricultural chemicals collected for three regional studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Statistical techniques such as multiple linear and logistic regression were used to identify natural and anthropogenic variables of drainage basins that have strong relations to agricultural chemical concentrations and mass transport measured in rivers. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to manage and analyze spatial data. Statistical models were developed that estimated the concentration, annual transport, and annual mean concentration of selected agricultural chemicals in midwestern rivers. Multiple linear regression models were not very successful (R2 from 0.162 to 0.517) in explaining the variance in observed agricultural chemical concentrations during post-planting runoff. Logistic regression models were somewhat more successful, correctly matching the observed concentration category in 61–80% of observations. Linear and multiple linear regression models were moderately successful (R2 from 0.522 to 0.995) in explaining the variance in observed annual transport and annual mean concentration of agricultural chemicals. Explanatory variables that were commonly significant in the regression models include estimates of agricultural chemical use, crop acreage, soil characteristics, and basin topography

Exposure and potential effects of pesticides and pharmaceuticals in protected streams of the US National park Service southeast region

Globally, protected areas offer refugia for a broad range of taxa including threatened and endangered species. In the United States (US), the National Park Service (NPS) manages public lands to preserve biodiversity, but increasing park visitation and development of surrounding landscapes increase exposure to and effects from bioactive contaminants. The risk (exposure and hazard) to NPS protected-stream ecosystems within the highly urbanized southeast region (SER) from bioactive contaminants was assessed in five systems based on 334 pesticide and pharmaceutical analytes in water and 119 pesticides in sediment. Contaminant mixtures were common across all sampled systems, with approximately 24% of the unique analytes (80/334) detected at least once and 15% (49/334) detected in half of the surface-water samples. Pharmaceuticals were observed more frequently than pesticides, consistent with riparian buffers and concomitant spatial separation from non-point pesticide sources in four of the systems. To extrapolate exposure data to biological effects space, site-specific cumulative exposure-activity ratios (REAR) were calculated for detected surface-water contaminants with available ToxCast data; common exceedances of a 0.001 REAR effects-screening threshold raise concerns for molecular toxicity and possible, sub-lethal effects to non-target, aquatic vertebrates. The results illustrate the need for continued management of protected resources to reduce contaminant exposure and preserve habitat quality, including prioritization of conservation practices (riparian buffers) near stream corridors and increased engagement with upstream/up-gradient property owners and municipal wastewater facilities

Restored Agricultural Wetlands in central Iowa: Habitat Quality and Amphibian Response

Amphibians are declining throughout the United States and worldwide due, partly, to habitat loss. Conservation practices on the landscape restore wetlands to denitrify tile drainage effluent and restore ecosystem services. Understanding how water quality, hydroperiod, predation, and disease affect amphibians in restored wetlands is central to maintaining healthy amphibian populations in the region. We examined the quality of amphibian habitat in restored wetlands relative to reference wetlands by comparing species richness, developmental stress, and adult leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) survival probabilities to a suite of environmental metrics. Although measured habitat variables differed between restored and reference wetlands, differences appeared to have sub-lethal rather than lethal effects on resident amphibian populations. There were few differences in amphibian species richness and no difference in estimated survival probabilities between wetland types. Restored wetlands had more nitrate and alkaline pH, longer hydroperiods, and were deeper, whereas reference wetlands had more amphibian chytrid fungus zoospores in water samples and resident amphibians exhibited increased developmental stress. Restored and reference wetlands are both important components of the landscape in central Iowa and maintaining a complex of fish-free wetlands with a variety of hydroperiods will likely contribute to the persistence of amphibians in this landscape

Estimating the susceptibility of surface water in Texas to nonpoint-source contamination by use of logistic regression modeling /

Shipping list no.: 2004-0050-P.Includes bibliographical references (p. 24).Mode of access: Internet

Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative: Concepts and Implementation

This report provides the basis for discussion and subsequent articulation of a national plan for the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI). The authors were members of a task force formed from within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that included scientists with expertise in biology, cartography, hydrology, and statistics. The assignment of the task force was to extend work begun by the National Amphibian Leadership Group. This group, composed of senior USGS scientists, managers, and external authorities, met in Gainesville, Florida, in February 20001. The product of this meeting was a document outlining the framework for a national program to monitor amphibian populations and to conduct research into the causes of declines