Resilience of Indian agriculture to external shocks: Analyzing through a structural econometric model

Is Indian agriculture resilient to external shocks? This question has assumed considerable importance ever since macroeconomic reforms were implemented from the early nineties. As a result, the agricultural sector was exposed to sudden disturbances caused not just by the demand and supply conditions within the country, but also by volatility in world market price, exchange rate and surge in imports. This paper aims to evaluate the magnitude of sensitivity of agriculture to these factors and other changes, and explores policy options that may neutralize their adverse effects, maintain price incentives and stability. The analysis is based on three important tradable commodities. A structural econometric model is applied to each, separately under the exportable and importable scenarios from 1980-81 to 2002-03. Broad findings reveal agriculture to be increasingly driven by an incentive structure based on its linkages with world market price, exchange rate and other factors. Counterfactual simulation experiments indicate that due to trade and price policies, commodity prices and output tend to be much more resilient to various shocks compared to the exports and imports. --

Resilience of Indian agriculture to external shocks: Analyzing through a structural econometric model

Is Indian agriculture resilient to external shocks? This question has assumed considerable importance ever since macroeconomic reforms were implemented from the early nineties. As a result, the agricultural sector was exposed to sudden disturbances caused not just by the demand and supply conditions within the country, but also by volatility in world market price, exchange rate and surge in imports. This paper aims to evaluate the magnitude of sensitivity of agriculture to these factors and other changes, and explores policy options that may neutralize their adverse effects, maintain price incentives and stability. The analysis is based on three important tradable commodities. A structural econometric model is applied to each, separately under the exportable and importable scenarios from 1980-81 to 2002-03. Broad findings reveal agriculture to be increasingly driven by an incentive structure based on its linkages with world market price, exchange rate and other factors. Counterfactual simulation experiments indicate that due to trade and price policies, commodity prices and output tend to be much more resilient to various shocks compared to the exports and imports

The impact of immediate breast reconstruction on the time to delivery of adjuvant therapy: the iBRA-2 study

Background: Immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) is routinely offered to improve quality-of-life for women requiring mastectomy, but there are concerns that more complex surgery may delay adjuvant oncological treatments and compromise long-term outcomes. High-quality evidence is lacking. The iBRA-2 study aimed to investigate the impact of IBR on time to adjuvant therapy. Methods: Consecutive women undergoing mastectomy ± IBR for breast cancer July–December, 2016 were included. Patient demographics, operative, oncological and complication data were collected. Time from last definitive cancer surgery to first adjuvant treatment for patients undergoing mastectomy ± IBR were compared and risk factors associated with delays explored. Results: A total of 2540 patients were recruited from 76 centres; 1008 (39.7%) underwent IBR (implant-only [n = 675, 26.6%]; pedicled flaps [n = 105,4.1%] and free-flaps [n = 228, 8.9%]). Complications requiring re-admission or re-operation were significantly more common in patients undergoing IBR than those receiving mastectomy. Adjuvant chemotherapy or radiotherapy was required by 1235 (48.6%) patients. No clinically significant differences were seen in time to adjuvant therapy between patient groups but major complications irrespective of surgery received were significantly associated with treatment delays. Conclusions: IBR does not result in clinically significant delays to adjuvant therapy, but post-operative complications are associated with treatment delays. Strategies to minimise complications, including careful patient selection, are required to improve outcomes for patients

Agriculture-Industry Interlinkages: Some Theoretical and Methodological Issues in the Indian Context

The inter-relationship between agriculture and industry has been a long debated issue in most of the developing countries. In the Indian context, the issue has acquired interest since the industrial stagnation of the mid 1960s. Over the years the Indian economy has undergone a structural change in its sectoral composition: from a primary agro-based economy during 1970s, the economy has emerged as predominant in the service sector since the 1990s. This structural change and uneven pattern of growth of agriculture, industry and services sector in the post reforms period is likely to appear substantial changes in the production and demand linkages among various sectors, and in turn, could have significant implication for the growth and development process of the economy. This has triggered a renewed interest in studying the inter-relationship between agriculture and industry. The present paper tries to address some of the theoretical and methodological issues in analyzing the agriculture-industry interlinkages in the Indian context

Resilience of Indian Agriculture to External Shocks: Analyzing through a Structural Econometric Model

Is Indian agriculture resilient to external shocks? This question has assumed considerable importance ever since macroeconomic reforms were implemented from the early nineties. As a result, the agricultural sector was exposed to sudden disturbances caused not just by the demand and supply conditions within the country, but also by volatility in world market price, exchange rate and surge in imports. This paper aims to evaluate the magnitude of sensitivity of agriculture to these factors and other changes, and explores policy options that may neutralize their adverse effects, maintain price incentives and stability. The analysis is based on three important tradable commodities. A structural econometric model is applied to each, separately under the exportable and importable scenarios from 1980-81 to 2002-03. Broad findings reveal agriculture to be increasingly driven by an incentive structure based on its linkages with world market price, exchange rate and other factors. Counterfactual simulation experiments indicate that due to trade and price policies, commodity prices and output tend to be much more resilient to various shocks compared to the exports and imports

Volatility in Agriculture Commodity Prices in India: Impact and Macroeconomic and Sector-Specific Policy Responses

Globalization and trade liberalization have exposed agricultural sector of many developing countries to sudden disturbances, caused not just by demand-supply conditions within their economies but also by volatility in global commodity prices, exchange rate and surge in imports. This paper evaluates the magnitude of sensitivity of Indian agriculture to these factors, and explores policy options that may neutralize their adverse effects, maintain price incentives and stability. The analysis is undertaken for one important tradable commodity viz. wheat by applying a structural econometric model, separately under the exportable and importable scenarios from 1980-81 to 2009-10. Findings reveal wheat to be increasingly driven by an incentive structure based on its linkages with world price, exchange rate and other factors. Counterfactual simulation experiments indicate that due to trade and sector-specific policies, wheat price and output tend to be much more resilient to fluctuations in international price and other shocks compared to its exports and imports

Nexus in Income, Saving and Investment among Agricultural Households: A State and Farm Level Analysis!

The paper estimates the income, saving and saving gap among agricultural households to understand their investment behaviour based on a comprehensive All India Financial Inclusion Survey (NAFIS) 2016-17 of NABARD, Mumbai. The descriptive and empirical analysis shows saving and investment of cultivators are determined by income, among several other factors. It further reveals a weak association between household’s saving rate and investment in agriculture and allied activities. This may imply households’ dependence on borrowings for investment finance. The paper suggests state and farm size specific interventions along with increase in public investments, suitably tailored to augment household income and capital formation in agriculture