Is there Really a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? More Evidence from Panel Data Models

Time series unit root evidence suggests that inflation is nonstationary. By contrast, when using more powerful panel unit root tests, Culver and Papell (1997) find that inflation is stationary. In this paper, we test the robustness of this result by applying a battery of recent panel unit root tests. The results suggest that the stationarity of inflation holds even after controlling for crosssectional dependence and structural change.Unit Root; Inflation; Cross-Sectional Dependence; Structural Change

Mixed Signals Among Tests for Panel Cointegration

In this paper, we study the effect that different serial correlation adjustment methods can have on panel cointegration testing. As an example, we consider the very popular tests developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004). Results based on both simulated and real data suggest that different adjustment methods can lead to significant variations in test outcome, and thus also in the conclusions.Panel Data; Cointegration Testing; Parametric and Semiparametric Methods

"PPP tests in cointegrated panels: Evidence from Asian developing countries".

This paper tests the relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for a set of ten Asian developing countries using panel cointegration framework. We employ 'between-dimension' dynamic OLS estimator as proposed by Pedroni (2001b). The test results overwhelmingly reject the PPP hypothesis.Purchasing Power Parity, Panel Cointegration, Unit Root

"PPP tests in cointegrated panels: Evidence from Asian developing countries".

This paper tests the relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for a set of ten Asian developing countries using panel cointegration framework. We employ 'between-dimension' dynamic OLS estimator as proposed by Pedroni (2001b). The test results overwhelmingly reject the PPP hypothesis.Purchasing Power Parity, Panel Cointegration, Unit Root

Panel Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation.

Can Panel Data Really Improve the Predictability of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model?

A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application.Monetary Exchange Rate Model; Forecasting; Panel Data; Pooling; Bootstrap

Oil price risk and emerging stock markets

This paper uses an international multi-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model that allows for both unconditional and conditional risk factors to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and emerging stock market returns. In general we find strong evidence that oil price risk impacts stock price returns in emerging markets. Results for other risk factors like market risk, total risk, skewness, and kurtosis are also presented. These results are useful for individual and institutional investors, managers and policy makers.Emerging markets; market risk; oil price risk

Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data

This paper tests the convergence in per-capita carbon dioxide emissions for a collection of developed and developing countries using data spanning the period 1870 to 2002. For this purpose, three recently developed panel unit root tests that permit for dependence among the individual countries are employed. The results lend strong support in favor of convergence for the panel as a whole. Estimates of the speed of this convergence is also provided.Emissions convergence; Panel unit root tests; Common factors; Half-life

The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study

Migration between the Canadian provinces generally followed a declining trend over the period 1971-2004. In this paper, taking Ontario a case study, we seek to explain these patterns using recent panel cointegration methods that are robust to cross-section dependence. Estimation of heterogenous models suggests that the determinants of migration vary across provinces. Overall, unemployment differential and income in the sending province appear to be the most important ones, with income and federal transfer differentials playing only a minor role.Internal migration; panel cointegration; bootstrap; Canada

Unit Roots, Nonlinear Cointegration and Purchasing Power Parity

We test long¨Crun PPP within a general model of cointegration of linear and nonlinear form. Nonlinear cointegration is tested with rank tests proposed by Breitung (2001). We start with determining the order of integration of each variable in the model, applying relatively powerful DF¨CGLS tests of Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996). Using monthly data from the post¨CBretton Woods era for G¨C10 countries, the evidence leads to a rejection of PPP for almost all countries. In several cases the price variables are driven by permanent shocks that differ from the ones that drive the exchange rate. Also, nonlinear cointegration cannot solve the PPP puzzle.Purchasing power parity; unit roots; nonlinear cointegration