Uncertainty in Medical Decision Making: knowing how little you know

Making decisions about the care of individual patients is fundamental to health care. For each patient, many decisions have to be made. In the emergency room, for example, a doctor should decide which patient to see first, decide whether an x-ray should be made of an injured ankle, and decide how this specific ankle fracture of this specific patient should be treated. Medical training is focused on acquiring the knowledge and experience to make such decisions. Other factors that are essential for patient care, including empathy and technical abilities, also involve decision making. For example, in the outpatient clinic, a trade-off is needed when one patient needs more time and empathy, but the waiting room is packed and the physician is an hour behind schedule. In the operating room, a surgeon must decide whether to proceed with a complicated laparoscopic procedure to remove a gall bladder, to convert to an open procedure, or to ask a more experienced surgeon for help

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Current perspectives

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second most common malignancy arising from the liver. ICC makes up about 10% of all cholangiocarcinomas. It arises from the peripheral bile ducts within the liver parenchyma, proximal to the secondary biliary radicals. Histologically, the majority of ICCs are adenocarcinomas. Only a minority of patients (15%) present with resectable disease, with a median survival of less than 3 years. Multidisciplinary management of ICC is complicated by large differences in disease course for individual patients both across and within tumor stages. Risk models and nomograms have been developed to more accurately predict survival of individual patients based on clinical parameters. Predictive risk factors are necessary to improve patient selection for systemic treatments. Molecular differences between tumors, such as in the epidermal growth factor receptor status, are promising, but their clinical applicability should be validated. For patients with locally advanced disease, several treatment strategies are being evaluated. Both hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy with floxuridine and yttrium-90 embolization aim to downstage locally advanced ICC. Selected patients have resectable disease after downstaging, and other patients might benefit because of postponing widespread dissemination and biliary obstruction

A preliminary prediction model for potentially guiding patient choices between breast conserving surgery and mastectomy in early breast cancer patients; a Dutch experience

Purpose: To guide early stage breast cancer patients to choose between breast conserving surgery (BCS) and mastectomy (MST) considering the predicted cosmetic result and quality of life (QoL). Methods: A decision model was built to compare QoL after BCS and MST. Treatment could result in BCS with good cosmesis, BCS with poor cosmesis, MST only, and MST with breast reconstruction. QoL for these treatment outcomes were obtained from a previous study and the literature and translated into EuroQoL-5D derived utilities. Chance of good cosmesis after BCS was predicted based on tumor location and tumor/breast volume ratio. The decision model determined whether the expected QoL was superior after BCS or MST based on chance of good cosmesis. Results: The mean utility for the treatments such as BCS with good cosmesis, BCS with poor cosmesis, MST only, and MST with breast reconstruction were 0.908, 0.843, 0.859, and 0.876, respectively. BCS resulted in superior QoL compared to MST in patients with a chance of good cosmesis above 36%. This 36% threshold is reached in case the tumor is located in the upper lateral, lower lateral, upper medial, lower medial, and central quadrant of the breast with a tumor/breast volume ratio below 21.6, 4.1, 15.1, 3.2, and 14.7, respectively. Conclusions: BCS results in superior QoL in patients with tumors in the upper breast quadrants or centrally and a tumor/breast volume ratio below 15. MST results in superior QoL in patients with tumors in the lower breast quadrants and a tumor/breast volume ratio above 4

Timing of Initiation of Palliative Chemotherapy in Asymptomatic Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: An International Expert Survey and Case-Vignette Study

Asymptomatic; Expert survey; Pancreatic cancerAsimptomàtic; Enquesta d'experts; Càncer de pàncreesAsintomático; Encuesta de expertos; Cáncer de páncreasBackground: The use of imaging, in general, and during follow-up after resection of pancreatic cancer, is increasing. Consequently, the number of asymptomatic patients diagnosed with metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPDAC) is increasing. In these patients, palliative systemic therapy is the only tumor-directed treatment option; hence, it is often immediately initiated. However, delaying therapy in asymptomatic palliative patients may preserve quality of life and avoid therapy-related toxicity, but the impact on survival is unknown. This study aimed to gain insight into the current perspectives and clinical decision=making of experts regarding the timing of treatment initiation of patients with asymptomatic mPDAC. Methods: An online survey (13 questions, 9 case-vignettes) was sent to all first and last authors of published clinical trials on mPDAC over the past 10 years and medical oncologists of the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Group. Inter-rater variability was determined using the Kappa Light test. Differences in the preferred timing of treatment initiation among countries, continents, and years of experience were analyzed using Fisher’s exact test. Results: Overall, 78 of 291 (27%) medical oncologists from 15 countries responded (62% from Europe, 23% from North America, and 15% from Asia–Pacific). The majority of respondents (63%) preferred the immediate initiation of chemotherapy following diagnosis. In 3/9 case-vignettes, delayed treatment was favored in specific clinical contexts (i.e., patient with only one small lung metastasis, significant comorbidities, and higher age). A significant degree of inter-rater variability was present within 7/9 case-vignettes. The recommended timing of treatment initiation differed between continents for 2/9 case-vignettes (22%), in 7/9 (77.9%) comparing the Netherlands with other countries, and based on years of experience for 5/9 (56%). Conclusions: Although the response rate was limited, in asymptomatic patients with mPDAC, immediate treatment is most often preferred. Delaying treatment until symptoms occur is considered in patients with limited metastatic disease, more comorbidities, and higher age

Low Skeletal Muscle Density Is Associated with Early Death in Patients with Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma Regardless of Subsequent Treatment

Background: Low skeletal muscle mass is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and worse survival following resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC). We investigated the predictive value of skeletal muscle mass and density for overall survival (OS) of all patients with suspected PHC, regardless of treatment. Methods: Baseline characteristics and parameters regarding disease and treatment were collected from al