Linear and Nonlinear Foreign Exchange Rate Exposures of German Nonfinancial Corporations

It has been viewed as an unsolved puzzle that only for a small number of firms a significant impact of foreign exchange rate risk on firm value could be detected empirically. This paper investigates whether the results of previous studies can be explained by the fact that only the linear exposure component has been estimated or that exchange rate indices were used. For a comprehensive sample of German firms, empirical evidence is presented for the existence of significant linear and nonlinear exposures, which can be identified for bilateral as well as multilateral foreign exchange rates. The percentage of foreign sales, measures of firm liquidity and industry sectors are significant determinants of the exposure.foreign exchange rates, exposure, corporate finance, risk management, derivatives

Corporate Cash Flow and Stock Price Exposures to Foreign Exchange Rate Risk

This paper estimates the foreign exchange rate exposure of 6,917 U.S. nonfinancial firms on the basis of stock prices and corporate cash flows. The results show that several firms are significantly exposed to at least one of the foreign exchange rates Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Euro, and significant exposures are more frequent at longer horizons. The percentage of firms for which stock price and earnings exposures are significantly different is relatively low, though it increases with time horizon. Overall, the impact of exchange rate risk on stock prices and cash flows is similar and determined by a related set of economic factors.corporate finance, risk management, exposure, foreign exchange rates, hedging

The Interest Rate Exposure of Nonfinancial Corporations

Many interest rates are as volatile as exchange rates and thus represent an equally important source of risk for corporations. While this is true not only for financial institutions, but for other corporations as well, little is known about the interest rate exposure of nonfinancial firms. Consequently, this paper investigates the impact of interest rate risk on a large sample of nonfinancial corporations. It presents empirical evidence for the existence of linear and nonlinear exposures with regard to movements in various interest rate variables. The interest rate exposure is empirically determined by measures of firm liquidity, but not by financial leverage.Interest rates, exposure, derivatives, risk management, corporate finance, capital markets

What Lies Beneath: Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure, Hedging and Cash Flows

This paper presents results from an in-depth analysis of the foreign exchange rate exposure of a large nonfinancial firm based on proprietary internal data including cash flows, derivatives and foreign currency debt, as well as external capital market data. While the operations of the multinational firm have significant exposure to foreign exchange rate risk due to foreign currency-based activities and international competition, corporate hedging mitigates this gross exposure. The analysis illustrates that the insignificance of foreign exchange rate exposures of comprehensive performance measures such as total cash flow can be explained by hedging at the firm level. Thus, the residual net exposure is economically and statistically small, even if the operating cash flows of the firm are significantly exposed to exchange rate risk. The results of the paper suggest that managers of nonfinancial firms with operations exposed to foreign exchange rate risk take savvy actions to reduce exposure to a level too low to allow its detection empirically.Foreign exchange rates, exposure, risk management, cash flow, derivatives, corporate finance

No Place To Hide: The Global Crisis in Equity Markets in 2008/09

This paper provides a broad analysis of the effect of the current financial crisis on global equity markets and their major components. We also examine the magnitude of the crisis in terms of value destruction in comparison to other market crashes. In brief, upon looking at return performance across an array of regions, countries, and sectors, broad market averages are down approximately 40% on their end of 2006 levels. While deterioration started in most markets in early to mid 2008, the crisis period of mid September to the end of October 2008 is responsible for the lion's share of the collapse with just about all indices falling 30 - 40% in this short period. Financial sectors have taken a bigger hit than non-financials over the period, though they both suffered similarly during the peak of the crisis. Due to larger rises in 2007 the emerging markets drop more in 2008 than developed markets but in large part end up at the same level as the other markets. The global nature of the crisis is also apparent from the high correlations between markets and investment styles that further increased during the crisis. As a result, diversification provided little help to investors when needed most as markets dropped in tandem.Equity market, financial crisis, shareholder value, performance, international finance

Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets

This paper examines the importance of exchange rate risk in the return generating process for a large sample of non-financial firms from 37 countries. We argue that the effect of exchange rate exposure on stock returns should be conditional and show evidence of a significant return premium to firm-level currency exposures when conditioning on the exchange rate change. The return premium is directly related to the size and sign of the subsequent exchange rate change, suggesting fluctuations in exchange rates themselves as a source of time-variation in currency risk premia. For the entire sample the return premium ranges from 1.2 - 3.3% per unit of currency exposure. The premium is larger for firms in emerging markets, while in developed markets it is statistically significant only for local currency depreciations. Overall, the results indicate that exchange rate exposure plays an important role in generating cross-sectional return variation. Moreover, we show that the impact of exchange rate risk on stock returns is predominantly a cash flow effect as opposed to a discount rate effect.Exchange rate exposure, exchange rate risk, return premia, international finance

The Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle

Based on basic financial models and reports in the business press, exchange rate movements are generally believed to affect the value of nonfinancial firms. In contrast, the empirical research on nonfinancial firms typically produces fewer significant exposures estimates than researchers ex-pect, independent of the sample studied and the methodology used, giving rise to a situation known as “the exposure puzzle”. This paper provides a survey of the existing research on the exposure phenomenon for nonfinancial firms. We suggest that the exposure puzzle may not be a problem of empirical methodology or sample selection as previous research has suggested, but is simply the result of the endogeneity of operative and financial hedging at the firm level. Given that empirical tests estimate exchange exposures net of corporate hedging, both, firms with low gross exposure that do not need to hedge, as well as firms with large gross exposures that employ one or several forms of hedging, may exhibit only weak exchange rate exposures net of hedging. Consequently, empirical tests yield only small percentages of firms with significant stock price exposures in almost any sample.Exposure, risk management, derivatives, corporate finance, exchange rates

Alternative Market Structures for Derivatives

In this paper, we compare option contracts from a traditional derivatives exchange to bank-issued options, also referred to as covered warrants, whose markets have grown rapidly around the world in recent years. While bank-issued option markets and traditional derivatives exchanges exhibit significant structural differences such as the absence of a central counterparty for bank-issued options, they frequently exist side-by-side, and the empirical evidence shows that there is significant overlap in their product offerings. We examine trading costs and liquidity in both markets and find that bank-issued options have smaller quoted percentage bid-ask spreads than traditional option contracts by an average of 4.3%. The bid-ask spread difference manifests itself in a highly regular fashion in that ask (bid) prices for bank-issued options are consistently higher than comparable ask (bid) prices for traditional option contracts. The difference of the bid prices is larger than the difference of the ask prices resulting in smaller bid-ask spreads for bank-issued options. The empirical analysis also indicates that bid-ask spreads in either market are lowered by competition from the other market. We present a potential explanation for the co-existence of the two market structures which suggests that the bank-issued option market caters more towards retail investors with predominantly speculative motives while traditional derivatives exchanges may cater more towards institutional investors with predominantly hedging motives.Options, Market Design, Microstructure, Bid-Ask Spreads

Competition among Alternative Option Market Structures: Evidence from Eurex vs. Euwax

We study option market design by providing a theoretical motivation and comprehensive empirical analysis of two fundamentally different option market structures, the Eurex derivatives exchange and Euwax, the world’s largest market for bank-issued options. These markets exist side-by- side, offering many options with identical or similar characteristics. We motivate the two market structures based on option investor clienteles which differ with respect to the probability of selling the option back to the dealer/issuer before maturity, which in turn affects the investors expected transaction costs. As suggested by the clientele argument, the most important empirical finding is that Euwax ask prices and bid prices are consistently higher than comparable Eurex ask prices and bid prices. The difference of the bid prices is larger, resulting in smaller Euwax bid-ask spreads, which makes Euwax preferable for investors with a high probability of early liquidation. We find that competition from one market reduces bid-ask spreads in the other market.Options, Market Design, Microstructure, Bid-Ask Spreads

The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposures

This paper examines whether the introduction of the Euro in 1999 was associated with lower stock return volatility, market risk exposures and foreign exchange rate risk exposures for 12,821 nonfinancial firms in Europe, the United States, and Japan. We show that though the Euro led to a significant decrease in the volatility of trade-weighted exchange rates of European countries, stock return variances of nonfinancial firms increased after its introduction. However, the Euro was also accompanied by significant reductions in market risk exposures for nonfinancial firms in and outside of Europe. We show that the reduction in market risk was not as a result of changes in financial leverage, and that it is concentrated in firms with a high fraction of foreign sales in Europe, a high fraction of total foreign sales and larger market capitalizations. In addition to its impact on market betas, the Euro has a positive effect on the incremental foreign exchange rate exposures, particularly for multinationals.Foreign exchange rates, exposure, Euro, corporate finance, risk management, derivatives