Duality for pathwise superhedging in continuous time

We provide a model-free pricing-hedging duality in continuous time. For a frictionless market consisting of $d$ risky assets with continuous price trajectories, we show that the purely analytic problem of finding the minimal superhedging price of a path dependent European option has the same value as the purely probabilistic problem of finding the supremum of the expectations of the option over all martingale measures. The superhedging problem is formulated with simple trading strategies, the claim is the limit inferior of continuous functions, which allows for upper and lower semi-continuous claims, and superhedging is required in the pathwise sense on a $\sigma$-compact sample space of price trajectories. If the sample space is stable under stopping, the probabilistic problem reduces to finding the supremum over all martingale measures with compact support. As an application of the general results we deduce dualities for Vovk's outer measure and semi-static superhedging with finitely many securities

Non-asymptotic rates for the estimation of risk measures

Consider the problem of computing the riskiness $\rho(F(S))$ of a financial position $F$ written on the underlying $S$ with respect to a general law invariant risk measure $\rho$; for instance, $\rho$ can be the average value at risk. In practice the true distribution of $S$ is typically unknown and one needs to resort to historical data for the computation. In this article we investigate rates of convergence of $\rho(F(S_N))$ to $\rho(F(S))$, where $S_N$ is distributed as the empirical measure of $S$ with $N$ observations. We provide (sharp) non-asymptotic rates for both the deviation probability and the expectation of the estimation error. Our framework further allows for hedging, and the convergence rates we obtain depend neither on the dimension of the underlying stocks nor on the number of options available for trading

Optimal non-gaussian Dvoretzky-Milman embeddings

We construct the first non-gaussian ensemble that yields the optimal estimate in the Dvoretzky-Milman Theorem: the ensemble exhibits almost Euclidean sections in arbitrary normed spaces of the same dimension as the gaussian embedding -- despite being very far from gaussian (in fact, it happens to be heavy-tailed).Comment: This is part two of the paper "Structure preservation via the Wasserstein distance" (arXiv:2209.07058v1) which was split into two part

Empirical approximation of the gaussian distribution in Rd\mathbb{R}^d

Let $G_1,\dots,G_m$ be independent copies of the standard gaussian random vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We show that there is an absolute constant $c$ such that for any $A \subset S^{d-1}$, with probability at least $1-2\exp(-c\Delta m)$, for every $t\in\mathbb{R}$, $$\sup_{x \in A} \left| \frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m 1_{ \{\langle G_i,x\rangle \leq t \}} - \mathbb{P}(\langle G,x\rangle \leq t) \right| \leq \Delta + \sigma(t) \sqrt\Delta.$$ Here $\sigma(t)$ is the variance of $1_{\{\langle G,x\rangle\leq t\}}$ and $\Delta\geq \Delta_0$, where $\Delta_0$ is determined by an unexpected complexity parameter of $A$ that captures the set's geometry (Talagrand's $\gamma_1$ functional). The bound, the probability estimate, and the value of $\Delta_0$ are all (almost) optimal. We use this fact to show that if $\Gamma=\sum_{i=1}^m \langle G_i,x\rangle e_i$ is the random matrix that has $G_1,\dots,G_m$ as its rows, then the structure of $\Gamma(A)=\{\Gamma x: x\in A\}$ is far more rigid and well-prescribed than was previously expected

Sensitivity of robust optimization problems under drift and volatility uncertainty

We examine optimization problems in which an investor has the opportunity to trade in $d$ stocks with the goal of maximizing her worst-case cost of cumulative gains and losses. Here, worst-case refers to taking into account all possible drift and volatility processes for the stocks that fall within a $\varepsilon$-neighborhood of predefined fixed baseline processes. Although solving the worst-case problem for a fixed $\varepsilon>0$ is known to be very challenging in general, we show that it can be approximated as $\varepsilon\to 0$ by the baseline problem (computed using the baseline processes) in the following sense: Firstly, the value of the worst-case problem is equal to the value of the baseline problem plus $\varepsilon$ times a correction term. This correction term can be computed explicitly and quantifies how sensitive a given optimization problem is to model uncertainty. Moreover, approximately optimal trading strategies for the worst-case problem can be obtained using optimal strategies from the corresponding baseline problem