Brief Communication: Is Vertical Shear in an Ice Shelf (Still) Negligible?

Vertical shear is recognized today as a key component of the stress balance of ice shelves. However, the first ice shelf models were built on the neglect of vertical shear. Partly due to its historical treatment, it remains common to discuss vertical shear as though it were still considered negligible in ice shelf models. Here, we offer a historical perspective on the changing treatment of vertical shear over time, and we emphasize the term\u27s non-negligibility in current ice shelf modeling. We illustrate our discussion in the simplest context of an analytic, isothermal, shallow-ice-shelf model

Seismic Tremor Reveals Spatial Organization and Temporal Changes of Subglacial Water System

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.Subglacial water flow impacts glacier dynamics and shapes the subglacial environment. However, due to the challenges of observing glacier beds, the spatial organization of subglacial water systems and the time scales of conduit evolution and migration are largely unknown. To address these questions, we analyze 1.5‐ to 10‐Hz seismic tremor that we associate with subglacial water flow, that is, glaciohydraulic tremor, at Taku Glacier, Alaska, throughout the 2016 melt season. We use frequency‐dependent polarization analysis to estimate glaciohydraulic tremor propagation direction (related to the subglacial conduit location) and a degree day melt model to monitor variations in melt‐water input. We suggest that conduit formation requires sustained water input and that multiconduit flow paths can be distinguished from single‐conduit flow paths. Theoretical analysis supports our seismic interpretations that subglacial discharge likely flows through a single‐conduit in regions of steep hydraulic potential gradients but may be distributed among multiple conduits in regions with shallower potential gradients. Seismic tremor in regions with multiple conduits evolves through abrupt jumps between stable configurations that last 3–7 days, while tremor produced by single‐conduit flow remains more stationary. We also find that polarized glaciohydraulic tremor wave types are potentially linked to the distance from source to station and that multiple peak frequencies propagate from a similar direction. Tremor appears undetectable at distances beyond 2–6 km from the source. This new understanding of the spatial organization and temporal development of subglacial conduits informs our understanding of dynamism within the subglacial hydrologic system.Raw seismic data described in this paper are available through the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center (http://ds.iris.edu/mda/ZQ? timewindow=2015‐2016; Amundson et al., 2015). The raw weather data used in this paper can be found through the Arctic Data Center (https://doi.org/ 10.18739/A2H98ZC7V; Bartholomaus & Walter, 2018). Python code developed to carry out the analyses presented here is available at https://github.com/ voremargot/Seismic‐Tremor‐Reveals‐ Spatial‐Organization‐and‐Temporal‐ Changes‐of Subglacial‐Water‐System and https://github.com/ tbartholomaus/med_spec. This study was made possible with support from the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics and the University of Idaho. We thank Ginny Catania for the loan of weather stations. J. P. W.'s and J. M. A.'s contributions to this work were supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (OPP‐1337548 and OPP‐ 1303895). T. C. B. thanks Dylan Mikesell for an early conversation, which inspired the analysis presented here.Ye

Seismic Tremor Reveals Spatial Organization and Temporal Changes of Subglacial Water System

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.Subglacial water flow impacts glacier dynamics and shapes the subglacial environment. However, due to the challenges of observing glacier beds, the spatial organization of subglacial water systems and the time scales of conduit evolution and migration are largely unknown. To address these questions, we analyze 1.5‐ to 10‐Hz seismic tremor that we associate with subglacial water flow, that is, glaciohydraulic tremor, at Taku Glacier, Alaska, throughout the 2016 melt season. We use frequency‐dependent polarization analysis to estimate glaciohydraulic tremor propagation direction (related to the subglacial conduit location) and a degree day melt model to monitor variations in melt‐water input. We suggest that conduit formation requires sustained water input and that multiconduit flow paths can be distinguished from single‐conduit flow paths. Theoretical analysis supports our seismic interpretations that subglacial discharge likely flows through a single‐conduit in regions of steep hydraulic potential gradients but may be distributed among multiple conduits in regions with shallower potential gradients. Seismic tremor in regions with multiple conduits evolves through abrupt jumps between stable configurations that last 3–7 days, while tremor produced by single‐conduit flow remains more stationary. We also find that polarized glaciohydraulic tremor wave types are potentially linked to the distance from source to station and that multiple peak frequencies propagate from a similar direction. Tremor appears undetectable at distances beyond 2–6 km from the source. This new understanding of the spatial organization and temporal development of subglacial conduits informs our understanding of dynamism within the subglacial hydrologic system.Raw seismic data described in this paper are available through the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center (http://ds.iris.edu/mda/ZQ? timewindow=2015‐2016; Amundson et al., 2015). The raw weather data used in this paper can be found through the Arctic Data Center (https://doi.org/ 10.18739/A2H98ZC7V; Bartholomaus & Walter, 2018). Python code developed to carry out the analyses presented here is available at https://github.com/ voremargot/Seismic‐Tremor‐Reveals‐ Spatial‐Organization‐and‐Temporal‐ Changes‐of Subglacial‐Water‐System and https://github.com/ tbartholomaus/med_spec. This study was made possible with support from the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics and the University of Idaho. We thank Ginny Catania for the loan of weather stations. J. P. W.'s and J. M. A.'s contributions to this work were supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (OPP‐1337548 and OPP‐ 1303895). T. C. B. thanks Dylan Mikesell for an early conversation, which inspired the analysis presented here.Ye

Projected Loss of Rock Glacier Habitat in the Contiguous Western United States with Warming

Rock glaciers support alpine biodiversity and may respond more slowly to warming than snow or glaciers. While responses of snow and glaciers to climate change are relatively well understood, a robust assessment of rock glacier environmental niche, future distributions of rock glaciers and potential for development of rock glaciers from current glaciers is lacking. Using process-relevant, high-resolution environmental descriptors, we develop a species distribution model of the topographic, geologic and hydroclimatic niche of rock glaciers that provides novel estimates of potential rock glacier distributions for different climates. We identify mean annual air temperature and headwall area as the dominant controls on rock glacier spatial distributions, with rock glaciers more likely to be found in areas with mean annual temperatures close to −5°C, little rain, northern aspects and broad headwalls. While rock glacier climate equilibration may take hundreds of years, we find that equilibration to present climate will result in a 50% reduction in rock glacier habitat and equilibration to late 21st-century climate under a high-end warming scenario will result in a 99% reduction in rock glacier habitat across the western USA. Under future conditions, we find limited potential for glacier to rock glacier transformation (3% of glacierized area), concentrated in cold, high elevation, moderate precipitation areas

Propagating speedups during quiescence escalate to the 2020-2021 surge of Sít' Kusá, southeast Alaska

publishedVersio

Transient subglacial water routing efficiency modulates ice velocities prior to surge termination on Sít’ Kusá, AK

publishedVersio

Seismic Tremor Reveals Spatial Organization and Temporal Changes of Subglacial Water System

Subglacial water flow impacts glacier dynamics and shapes the subglacial environment. However, due to the challenges of observing glacier beds, the spatial organization of subglacial water systems and the time scales of conduit evolution and migration are largely unknown. To address these questions, we analyze 1.5‐ to 10‐Hz seismic tremor that we associate with subglacial water flow, hat is, glaciohydraulic tremor, at Taku Glacier, Alaska, throughout the 2016 melt season. We use frequency‐dependent polarization analysis to estimate glaciohydraulic tremor propagation direction (related to the subglacial conduit location) and a degree day melt model to monitor variations in melt‐water input. We suggest that conduit formation requires sustained water input and that multiconduit flow paths can be distinguished from single‐conduit flow paths. Theoretical analysis supports our seismic interpretations that subglacial discharge likely flows through a single‐conduit in regions of steep hydraulic potential gradients but may be distributed among multiple conduits in regions with shallower potential gradients. Seismic tremor in regions with multiple conduits evolves through abrupt jumps between stable configurations that last 3–7 days, while tremor produced by single‐conduit flow remains more stationary. We also find that polarized glaciohydraulic tremor wave types are potentially linked to the distance from source to station and that multiple peak frequencies propagate from a similar direction. Tremor appears undetectable at distances beyond 2–6 km from the source. This new understanding of the spatial organization and temporal development of subglacial conduits informs our understanding of dynamism within the subglacial hydrologic system

Research Letter

Water that pressurizes the base of glaciers and ice sheets enhances glacier velocities and modulates glacial erosion. Predicting ice flow and erosion therefore requires knowledge of subglacial channel evolution, which remains observationally limited.Water that pressurizes the base of glaciers and ice sheets enhances glacier velocities and modulates glacial erosion. Predicting ice flow and erosion therefore requires knowledge of subglacial channel evolution, which remains observationally limited. Here we demonstrate that detailed analysis of seismic ground motion caused by subglacial water flow at Mendenhall Glacier (Alaska) allows for continuous measurement of daily to subseasonal changes in basal water pressure gradient, channel size, and sediment transport. We observe intermittent subglacial water pressure gradient changes during the melt season, at odds with common assumptions of slowly varying, low-pressure channels. These observations indicate that changes in channel size do not keep pace with changes in discharge. This behavior strongly affects glacier dynamics and subglacial channel erosion at Mendenhall Glacier, where episodic periods of high water pressure gradients enhance glacier surface velocity and channel sediment transport by up to 30% and 50%, respectively. We expect the application of this framework to future seismic observations acquired at glaciers worldwide to improve our understanding of subglacial processes.This study was funded by NSF grant EAR-1453263. We thank Flavien Beaud and an anonymous reviewer for thorough reviews that improved the manuscript. We also thank Michael Lamb, Olivier Gagliardini, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Gael Durand and Adrien Gilbert for fruitful discussions.Ye

Subseasonal changes observed in subglacial channel pressure, size, and sediment transport

Water that pressurizes the base of glaciers and ice sheets enhances glacier velocities and modulates glacial erosion. Predicting ice flow and erosion therefore requires knowledge of subglacial channel evolution, which remains observationally limited. Here we demonstrate that detailed analysis of seismic ground motion caused by subglacial water flow at Mendenhall Glacier (Alaska) allows for continuous measurement of daily to subseasonal changes in basal water pressure gradient, channel size, and sediment transport. We observe intermittent subglacial water pressure gradient changes during the melt season, at odds with common assumptions of slowly varying, low-pressure channels. These observations indicate that changes in channel size do not keep pace with changes in discharge. This behavior strongly affects glacier dynamics and subglacial channel erosion at Mendenhall Glacier, where episodic periods of high water pressure gradients enhance glacier surface velocity and channel sediment transport by up to 30% and 50%, respectively. We expect the application of this framework to future seismic observations acquired at glaciers worldwide to improve our understanding of subglacial processes

Ice thickness estimates of Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska, from active-source seismic imaging

Lemon Creek Glacier, a temperate valley glacier in the Juneau Icefield of Southeast Alaska, is the site of long running (>60 years) glaciological studies. However, the most recent published estimates of its thickness and subglacial topography come from two ∼50 years old sources that are not in agreement and do not account for the effects of years of negative mass balance. We collected a 1-km long active-source seismic line on the upper section of the glacier parallel and near to the centerline of the glacier, roughly straddling the equilibrium-line altitude. We used these data to perform joint reflection-refraction velocity modeling and reflection imaging of the glacier bed. We find that this upper section of Lemon Creek Glacier is as much as 150 m (∼65%) thicker than previously suggested with a large overdeepening in an area previously believed to have a uniform thickness. Our results lead us to reinterpret the impact of basal motion on ice flow and have a significant impact on expectations of subglacial hydrology. We suggest that further efforts to develop a whole-glacier model of subglacial topography are necessary to support studies that require accurate models of ice thickness and subglacial topography.We thank the Juneau Icefield Research Program (JIRP) for their support with facilities at Camp 17 and logistical planning for the field work. We thank Emily Graves, Joachim Schalk and Celeste Labedz for their participation in the field work. We thank the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Seismic Source Facility at the University of Texas at El Paso for their assistance with the seismic sources. We thank two reviewers for their helpful commentary, and the Journal’s editorial volunteers and staff for their invaluable role in supporting this publication. This work was partially funded by Marianne Karplus’s startup funds at the University of Texas at El Paso.Ye