Designs for clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes based on stopping guidelines for lack of benefit

<p>Abstract</p> <p>background</p> <p>The pace of novel medical treatments and approaches to therapy has accelerated in recent years. Unfortunately, many potential therapeutic advances do not fulfil their promise when subjected to randomized controlled trials. It is therefore highly desirable to speed up the process of evaluating new treatment options, particularly in phase II and phase III trials. To help realize such an aim, in 2003, Royston and colleagues proposed a class of multi-arm, two-stage trial designs intended to eliminate poorly performing contenders at a first stage (point in time). Only treatments showing a predefined degree of advantage against a control treatment were allowed through to a second stage. Arms that survived the first-stage comparison on an intermediate outcome measure entered a second stage of patient accrual, culminating in comparisons against control on the definitive outcome measure. The intermediate outcome is typically on the causal pathway to the definitive outcome (i.e. the features that cause an intermediate event also tend to cause a definitive event), an example in cancer being progression-free and overall survival. Although the 2003 paper alluded to multi-arm trials, most of the essential design features concerned only two-arm trials. Here, we extend the two-arm designs to allow an arbitrary number of stages, thereby increasing flexibility by building in several 'looks' at the accumulating data. Such trials can terminate at any of the intermediate stages or the final stage.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We describe the trial design and the mathematics required to obtain the timing of the 'looks' and the overall significance level and power of the design. We support our results by extensive simulation studies. As an example, we discuss the design of the STAMPEDE trial in prostate cancer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mathematical results on significance level and power are confirmed by the computer simulations. Our approach compares favourably with methodology based on beta spending functions and on monitoring only a primary outcome measure for lack of benefit of the new treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The new designs are practical and are supported by theory. They hold considerable promise for speeding up the evaluation of new treatments in phase II and III trials.</p

The cosmological evolution of quasar black-hole masses

Virial black-hole mass estimates are presented for 12698 quasars in the redshift interval 0.1<z<2.1, based on modelling of spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) first data release. The black-hole masses of the SDSS quasars are found to lie between \simeq10^{7}\Msun and an upper limit of \simeq 3\times 10^{9}\Msun, entirely consistent with the largest black-hole masses found to date in the local Universe. The estimated Eddington ratios of the broad-line quasars (FWHM\geq 2000 kms^{-1}) show a clear upper boundary at $L_{bol}/L_{Edd}\simeq 1$, suggesting that the Eddington luminosity is still a relevant physical limit to the accretion rate of luminous broad-line quasars at $z\leq 2$. By combining the black-hole mass distribution of the SDSS quasars with the 2dF quasar luminosity function, the number density of active black holes at $z\simeq 2$ is estimated as a function of mass. In addition, we independently estimate the local black-hole mass function for early-types using the $M_{bh}-\sigma$ and $M_{bh}-L_{bulge}$ correlations. Based on the SDSS velocity dispersion function and the 2MASS $K-$band luminosity function, both estimates are found to be consistent at the high-mass end (M_{bh}\geq 10^{8}\Msun). By comparing the estimated number density of active black holes at $z\simeq 2$ with the local mass density of dormant black holes, we set lower limits on the quasar lifetimes and find that the majority of black holes with mass \geq 10^{8.5}\Msun are in place by $\simeq 2$.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, revised version, accepted for publication by MNRA

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): Survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research

Safety and efficacy of endoscopic spray cryotherapy for Barrett's esophagus with high-grade dysplasia

Endoscopic ablation to treat Barrett’s esophagus (BE) with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) is associated with a decreased incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Endoscopic spray cryotherapy (CRYO) demonstrates promising preliminary data

WNT/β-catenin signaling regulates mitochondrial activity to alter the oncogenic potential of melanoma in a PTEN-dependent manner

Aberrant regulation of WNT/β-catenin signaling has a crucial role in the onset and progression of cancers, where the effects are not always predictable depending on tumor context. In melanoma, for example, models of the disease predict differing effects of the WNT/β-catenin pathway on metastatic progression. Understanding the processes that underpin the highly context-dependent nature of WNT/β-catenin signaling in tumors is essential to achieve maximal therapeutic benefit from WNT inhibitory compounds. In this study, we have found that expression of the tumor suppressor, phosphatase and tensin homolog deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN), alters the invasive potential of melanoma cells in response to WNT/β-catenin signaling, correlating with differing metabolic profiles. This alters the bioenergetic potential and mitochondrial activity of melanoma cells, triggered through regulation of pro-survival autophagy. Thus, WNT/β-catenin signaling is a regulator of catabolic processes in cancer cells, which varies depending on the metabolic requirements of tumors

Primate TNF Promoters Reveal Markers of Phylogeny and Evolution of Innate Immunity

Background. Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) is a critical cytokine in the immune response whose transcriptional activation is controlled by a proximal promoter region that is highly conserved in mammals and, in particular, primates. Specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) upstream of the proximal human TNF promoter have been identified, which are markers of human ancestry. Methodology/Principal findings. Using a comparative genomics approach we show that certain fixed genetic differences in the TNF promoter serve as markers of primate speciation. We also demonstrate that distinct alleles of most human TNF promoter SNPs are identical to fixed nucleotides in primate TNF promoters. Furthermore, we identify fixed genetic differences within the proximal TNF promoters of Asian apes that do not occur in African ape or human TNF promoters. Strikingly, protein-DNA binding assays and gene reporter assays comparing these Asian ape TNF promoters to African ape and human TNF promoters demonstrate that, unlike the fixed differences that we define that are associated with primate phylogeny, these Asian ape-specific fixed differences impair transcription factor binding at an Sp1 site and decrease TNF transcription induced by bacterial stimulation of macrophages. Conclusions/significance. Here, we have presented the broadest interspecies comparison of a regulatory region of an innate immune response gene to date. We have characterized nucleotide positions in Asian ape TNF promoters that underlie functional changes in cell type- and stimulus-specific activation of the TNF gene. We have also identified ancestral TNF promoter nucleotide states in the primate lineage that correspond to human SNP alleles. These findings may reflect evolution of Asian and African apes under a distinct set of infectious disease pressures involving the innate immune response and TNF

First Dark Matter Search Results from the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a dark matter detector centered on a dual-phase xenon time projection chamber operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. This Letter reports results from LZ's first search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) with an exposure of 60 live days using a fiducial mass of 5.5 t. A profile-likelihood ratio analysis shows the data to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis, setting new limits on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon, spin-dependent WIMP-neutron, and spin-dependent WIMP-proton cross-sections for WIMP masses above 9 GeV/c$^2$. The most stringent limit is set at 30 GeV/c$^2$, excluding cross sections above 5.9$\times 10^{-48}$ cm$^2$ at the 90\% confidence level.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. See https://tinyurl.com/LZDataReleaseRun1 for a data release related to this pape

Abiraterone for Prostate Cancer Not Previously Treated with Hormone Therapy

BACKGROUND Abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone improves survival in men with relapsed prostate cancer. We assessed the effect of this combination in men starting long-term androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT), using a multigroup, multistage trial design. METHODS We randomly assigned patients in a 1:1 ratio to receive ADT alone or ADT plus abiraterone acetate (1000 mg daily) and prednisolone (5 mg daily) (combination therapy). Local radiotherapy was mandated for patients with node-negative, nonmetastatic disease and encouraged for those with positive nodes. For patients with nonmetastatic disease with no radiotherapy planned and for patients with metastatic disease, treatment continued until radiologic, clinical, or prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression; otherwise, treatment was to continue for 2 years or until any type of progression, whichever came first. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. The intermediate primary outcome was failure-free survival (treatment failure was defined as radiologic, clinical, or PSA progression or death from prostate cancer). RESULTS A total of 1917 patients underwent randomization from November 2011 through January 2014. The median age was 67 years, and the median PSA level was 53 ng per milliliter. A total of 52% of the patients had metastatic disease, 20% had node-positive or node-indeterminate nonmetastatic disease, and 28% had node-negative, nonmetastatic disease; 95% had newly diagnosed disease. The median follow-up was 40 months. There were 184 deaths in the combination group as compared with 262 in the ADT-alone group (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 0.76; P<0.001); the hazard ratio was 0.75 in patients with nonmetastatic disease and 0.61 in those with metastatic disease. There were 248 treatment-failure events in the combination group as compared with 535 in the ADT-alone group (hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.34; P<0.001); the hazard ratio was 0.21 in patients with nonmetastatic disease and 0.31 in those with metastatic disease. Grade 3 to 5 adverse events occurred in 47% of the patients in the combination group (with nine grade 5 events) and in 33% of the patients in the ADT-alone group (with three grade 5 events). CONCLUSIONS Among men with locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancer, ADT plus abiraterone and prednisolone was associated with significantly higher rates of overall and failure-free survival than ADT alone. (Funded by Cancer Research U.K. and others; STAMPEDE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00268476, and Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN78818544.