Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation target changes, and permanent shocks to the openness of the economies. We then define the cycle as the gap between this sustainable trajectory and the gross data, thus our model properly deals with deviations of the trade balance. Finally, we find persistent and strong effects from the asymmetric increase of euro area imports during the last ten years on domestic inflation. From the first quarter of 2000 to the last quarter of 2008, we estimate the contribution of the imbalanced development of international trade on euro area inflation to an average of -0.7%, and on the 3-Month interest rate to an average of -1.4%.Global Imbalances, Disinflation, Business Fluctuations, Open Economy Macroeconomics.

The Swiss Board Directors Network in 2009

We study the networks formed by the directors of the most important Swiss boards and the boards themselves for the year 2009. The networks are obtained by projection from the original bipartite graph. We highlight a number of important statistical features of those networks such as degree distribution, weight distribution, and several centrality measures as well as their interrelationships. While similar statistics were already known for other board systems, and are comparable here, we have extended the study with a careful investigation of director and board centrality, a k-core analysis, and a simulation of the speed of information propagation and its relationships with the topological aspects of the network such as clustering and link weight and betweenness. The overall picture that emerges is one in which the topological structure of the Swiss board and director networks has evolved in such a way that special actors and links between actors play a fundamental role in the flow of information among distant parts of the network. This is shown in particular by the centrality measures and by the simulation of a simple epidemic process on the directors network.Comment: Submitted to The European Physical Journal

Co-evolution of density and topology in a simple model of city formation

We study the influence that population density and the road network have on each others' growth and evolution. We use a simple model of formation and evolution of city roads which reproduces the most important empirical features of street networks in cities. Within this framework, we explicitely introduce the topology of the road network and analyze how it evolves and interact with the evolution of population density. We show that accessibility issues -pushing individuals to get closer to high centrality nodes- lead to high density regions and the appearance of densely populated centers. In particular, this model reproduces the empirical fact that the density profile decreases exponentially from a core district. In this simplified model, the size of the core district depends on the relative importance of transportation and rent costs.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figure

Optimal Traffic Networks

Inspired by studies on the airports' network and the physical Internet, we propose a general model of weighted networks via an optimization principle. The topology of the optimal network turns out to be a spanning tree that minimizes a combination of topological and metric quantities. It is characterized by a strongly heterogeneous traffic, non-trivial correlations between distance and traffic and a broadly distributed centrality. A clear spatial hierarchical organization, with local hubs distributing traffic in smaller regions, emerges as a result of the optimization. Varying the parameters of the cost function, different classes of trees are recovered, including in particular the minimum spanning tree and the shortest path tree. These results suggest that a variational approach represents an alternative and possibly very meaningful path to the study of the structure of complex weighted networks.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, final revised versio

Synchronization in Weighted Uncorrelated Complex Networks in a Noisy Environment: Optimization and Connections with Transport Efficiency

Motivated by synchronization problems in noisy environments, we study the Edwards-Wilkinson process on weighted uncorrelated scale-free networks. We consider a specific form of the weights, where the strength (and the associated cost) of a link is proportional to $(k_{i}k_{j})^{\beta}$ with $k_{i}$ and $k_{j}$ being the degrees of the nodes connected by the link. Subject to the constraint that the total network cost is fixed, we find that in the mean-field approximation on uncorrelated scale-free graphs, synchronization is optimal at $\beta^{*}$$=$-1. Numerical results, based on exact numerical diagonalization of the corresponding network Laplacian, confirm the mean-field results, with small corrections to the optimal value of $\beta^{*}$. Employing our recent connections between the Edwards-Wilkinson process and resistor networks, and some well-known connections between random walks and resistor networks, we also pursue a naturally related problem of optimizing performance in queue-limited communication networks utilizing local weighted routing schemes.Comment: Papers on related research can be found at http://www.rpi.edu/~korniss/Research

Gravity model in the Korean highway

We investigate the traffic flows of the Korean highway system, which contains both public and private transportation information. We find that the traffic flow T(ij) between city i and j forms a gravity model, the metaphor of physical gravity as described in Newton's law of gravity, P(i)P(j)/r(ij)^2, where P(i) represents the population of city i and r(ij) the distance between cities i and j. It is also shown that the highway network has a heavy tail even though the road network is a rather uniform and homogeneous one. Compared to the highway network, air and public ground transportation establish inhomogeneous systems and have power-law behaviors.Comment: 13 page

Statistical Analysis of the Road Network of India

In this paper we study the Indian Highway Network as a complex network where the junction points are considered as nodes, and the links are formed by an existing connection. We explore the topological properties and community structure of the network. We observe that the Indian Highway Network displays small world properties and is assortative in nature. We also identify the most important road-junctions (or cities) in the highway network based on the betweenness centrality of the node. This could help in identifying the potential congestion points in the network. Our study is of practical importance and could provide a novel approach to reduce congestion and improve the performance of the highway networ

A universal model for mobility and migration patterns

Introduced in its contemporary form by George Kingsley Zipf in 1946, but with roots that go back to the work of Gaspard Monge in the 18th century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume, inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.Comment: Main text and supplementary informatio