Nysa Łużycka – Klimat i Charakterystyka Regionu –

In dem EU-Projekt NEYMO – Lausitzer Neiße/Nysa Łużycka – Klimatische und hydrologische Modellierung, Analyse und Prognose – werden gemeinsam mit dem polnischen Projektpartner (IMGW-PIB) die klimatischen und hydrologischen Verhältnisse und das Wasserdargebot im Einzugsgebiet der Lausitzer Neiße untersucht. Schwerpunkt der Broschüre sind die Ergebnisse der Klimaanalyse, bei der das Klima der letzten 40 Jahre sowie verschiedene Klimaprojektionen für die Grenzregion Lausitzer Neiße bis zum Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts betrachtet wurden. Trendtests zeigten, dass bereits in den letzten 40 Jahren Zunahmen der Temperaturen, Sonnenscheindauer und potenziellen Verdunstung beobachtet wurden. Diese Trends werden sich laut der verwendeten Klimaprojektionen weiter fortsetzen. Die Niederschlagsmengen zeigten in der Vergangenheit einen leicht positiven Trend, weisen jedoch in den Projektionsdaten einen Rückgang auf. Aus klimatologischer Sicht verschlechtert sich somit die Wasserverfügbarkeit, insbesondere im Sommerhalbjahr.W ramach realizacji unijnego projektu „NEYMO Lausitzer Neiße/Nysa Lużycka – Modelowanie klimatyczne i hydrologiczne, Analiza i Prognoza”, wspólnie z polskim partnerem projektu (IMGW-PIB) przeprowadzane są badania dotyczące warunków klimatycznych i hydrologicznych oraz zasobów wodnych regionu zlewni Nysy Łużyckiej. Wielkość zasobów wodnych jest analizowana z uwzględnieniem zarówno zmian warunków klimatycznych, jak i planowanego korzystania z zasobów wodnych w regionie. Na tej podstawie opracowywana jest wspólna strategia ukierunkowana na zwiększenie efektywności gospodarki wodnej w regionie granicznym. Broszura zawiera podstawowe informacje o projekcie, charakterystykę obszaru badań oraz opis klimatu. Warunki klimatyczne regionu granicznego zlewni Nysy Łużyckiej przedstawiono na podstawie obserwacji z ostatnich 40 lat, a także danych z projekcji klimatycznych sięgających końca XXI w. Charakterystyka klimatu została opracowana korzystając z wybranych wskaźników, dotyczących głównie opadów atmosferycznych, suszy oraz warunków radiacyjnych. Trendy zmian dla ostatnich 40 lat wskazują na wzrost temperatury powietrza, usłonecznienia i parowania potencjalnego. Na podstawie opracowanych projekcji klimatycznych można stwierdzić, że tendencja ta zostanie utrzymana również w przyszłości. W przypadku opadów atmosferycznych obserwowany jest słaby trend rosnący. Natomiast projekcje klimatu wskazują, że w przyszłości należy się spodziewać zmniejszenia sum opadów. Z punktu widzenia klimatu, dostępność zasobów wodnych zwłaszcza w miesiącach letnich, może ulec zmniejszeniu

Klimaprojektionen, Luftverschmutzung und Belastungsgrenzen von Ökosystemen: Klimawandel, Luftverschmutzung und ökologische Belastungsgrenzen von Ökosystemen im polnisch-sächsischen Grenzraum

Im Rahmen des regionalen Klimaprojektes KLAPS werden Klimawandel, Luftverschmutzung und ökologische Belastungsgrenzen im polnisch-sächsischen Grenzraum untersucht. Mit dem vorliegenden Bericht liegt eine umfassende Analyse über die zukünftig mögliche klimatische und lufthygienische Entwicklung bis zum Jahr 2100 vor. Aufbauend auf den projizierten Klima- und Emissionsszenarien werden sowohl die Entwicklung als auch Überschreitung von Belastungsgrenzen von Ökosystemen (Critical Load) dargestellt. Redaktionsschluss: 30.10.201

Intensity of heat stress in 2015 and 2018 summer seasons in the region of the Lower Silesia (Poland)

The main goal of this paper was to assess the intensity of heat stress in Lower Silesia, Poland, during selected weather events characterized by high air temperatures. The complex impact of weather on the thermal load of the human organism is presented using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The analysis was carried out for the 2015 and 2018 summer seasons and compared with the multiannual period of 1971–2018. It was based on meteorological data from the IMGW-PIB stations of Wrocław, Jelenia Góra and Śnieżka. In order to examine how heat conditions affect UTCI in different geographical regions, stations located at different altitudes and representing the lowlands, the lower mountain zone and the summit zone of the Sudetes Mountains were considered. The research showed that during the most extreme thermal events, UTCI values in the lowlands and the lower mountain zones can be among the highest heat stress classes. In the summit zone, the maximum UTCI values are usually classed as ‘no thermal stress’

Intensity of heat stress in 2015 and 2018 summer seasons in the region of the Lower Silesia (Poland)

The main goal of this paper was to assess the intensity of heat stress in Lower Silesia, Poland, during selected weather events characterized by high air temperatures. The complex impact of weather on the thermal load of the human organism is presented using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The analysis was carried out for the 2015 and 2018 summer seasons and compared with the multiannual period of 1971–2018. It was based on meteorological data from the IMGW-PIB stations of Wrocław, Jelenia Góra and Śnieżka. In order to examine how heat conditions affect UTCI in different geographical regions, stations located at different altitudes and representing the lowlands, the lower mountain zone and the summit zone of the Sudetes Mountains were considered. The research showed that during the most extreme thermal events, UTCI values in the lowlands and the lower mountain zones can be among the highest heat stress classes. In the summit zone, the maximum UTCI values are usually classed as ‘no thermal stress’

Evaluation of Tourism-Climate Conditions in the Region of Kłodzko Land (Poland)

Kłodzko Land is one of the most important regions of Poland in terms of tourism and health issues. Numerous tourism attractions and health resorts make the region attractive for both tourist and bathers. The goal of this paper was to evaluate the impact of weather conditions on tourism-related conditions and their changes in the multiannual period. In the analysis, the indices of heat days, the UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) and CTIS (Climate Tourism Information Scheme) tools were used. The research on heat days and the UTCI indicated a significant increase in the heat-stress frequency over the last decades. Simultaneously, the number of weather types related to cold stress has considerably decreased. Such trends were noticed in the entire region, in all the considered hypsometric zones. The rising tendency was also observed for strong and very strong heat stress (UTCI > 32 °C), which negatively affects health problems. The analysis showed that the most extreme thermal and biothermal conditions, in terms of heat stress, occur under southern and eastern anticyclonic circulation. The CTIS analysis showed that favorable weather conditions for most of tourism activities are noticed in the warm half-year. The usefulness of weather conditions for tourism can vary depending on atmospheric circulation

Thermal and bio-thermal conditions in Lower Silesia in 2019

Najnowsze światowe raporty klimatyczne pokazały, że rok 2019 był jednym z najcieplejszych w historii pomiarów. Celem opracowania było określenie cech warunków termicznych i biotermicznych wybranych regionów Dolnego Śląska w 2019 r. oraz odniesienie ich do wartości w okresie wieloletnim 1971-2019. W analizach wykorzystano dane meteorologiczne z trzech stacji IMGW-PIB (Wrocław, Kłodzko, Śnieżka), które reprezentowały różne piętra wysokościowe. Do oceny warunków biotermicznych wykorzystano wskaźnik temperatury odczuwalnej STI. Wyniki badań pokazały, że 2019 r. był najcieplejszym lub jednym z najcieplejszych w uwzględnionym wieloleciu. Jednocześnie wykazano, że w okresie 1971-2019 znacząco wzrosła temperatura powietrza oraz częstość dni upalnych i gorących, przy malejącej liczbie dni przymrozkowych i mroźnych. W zakresie warunków biotermicznych zarówno w 2019 r., jak i wieloleciu widać wyraźną różnicę pod względem kształtowania się odczuć cieplnych między stacjami niżej położonymi (Wrocław i Kłodzko) a szczytową strefą Karkonoszy (Śnieżka). Stacje położone niżej cechuje znaczna częstość dni ze stresem gorąca w okresie letnim, w szczytowej strefie Karkonoszy natomiast przez cały rok dominują odczucia z zakresu silnego stresu zimna. W 2019 roku, w porównaniu do okresu wieloletniego, byłą większa częstość dni ze stresem gorąca i warunków pogodowych o charakterze termoneutralnym. Uzyskane wyniki badań będą mogły zostać wykorzystane w ocenie potencjału rekreacyjnego regionu Dolnego Śląska.The results of the latest WMO and NOAA reports on climate show that 2019 was one of the warmest years in the history of meteorological measurements. Therefore, the aim of the paper was to evaluate thermal conditions in 2019 in the selected regions of the Lower Silesia, Poland, and compare the results to the multiannual period of 1971-2019. Additionally, analysis on bio-thermal conditions were carried out in order to examine how changes in thermal conditions affects biometeorological issues. The analysis was carried out on the basis of meteorological data for 1971-2019 from IMGW-PIB stations representing various altitude. Wrocław (120 m a.s.l.) represented the lowlands, Kłodzko (356 m a.s.l.) the lower mountain parts, while Śnieżka (1603 m a.s.l.) represented the summit zone of the Giant Mts. In case of bio-thermal conditions evaluation, subjective temperature index STI, developed on the basis of MENEX model, was used. The results showed that 2019 at the considered stations was characterized as the warmest (Wrocław, Kłodzko) or one of the warmest years (Śnieżka) in the 1971-2019 period. Furthermore, for 1971-2019, increasing and statistically important trend was noticed for mean annual air temperature and the number of heat and warm days. The rate of increase in mean air temperature was equal to 0,5°C/ decade in Wrocław, 0,3°C/decade in Kłodzko and 0,4°C/decade on Śnieżka. On the other hand, decreasing tendency was observed for annual frequency of frosty and icy days. In terms of bio-thermal conditions, ‘cool’ thermal senses were prevailing throughout the year in the lower located regions. During the summer season, higher frequency of heat stress was noticed for both 2019 and 1971-2019. In case of Śnieżka, intensive cold stress (“extremely cold”, “very cold” and “cold”) dominates during the cold season. In the warm season, ‘cool’, “comfortable” and “warm” conditions are also observed with no weather types considered as heat stress. Comparing bio-thermal conditions in 2019 to 1971- 2019, lower frequency of cold stress occurred in 2019 at each station. In the lower located regions, higher number of days with heat stress and ‘comfortable’ conditions was noticed. On Śnieżka, frequency of ‘cool’, “comfortable” and “warm” conditions increased if compared to 1971-2019. Therefore, in case of further increase in air temperature and frequency of heat and warm days, additional increase in heat stress frequency can be expected in the lower located regions. On the other hand, improvement in bio-thermal conditions can be noticed in the summit zone of the mountains because of increase in thermoneutral conditions frequency. Nevertheless, it should be emphasized that in spite of increase in air temperature, “very cold” “cold” and “cool” thermal senses should still be predominant throughout the year in the summit zone. As bio-thermal indices are often considered in evaluations of weather conditions for tourism, the results of the analysis can be used for assessment of recreational potential of the Lower Silesia

Climate Water Balance in the Warm Half-Year and Its Circulation Conditions in the Sudetes Mountains and Their Foreland (Poland and Czechia)

Mountains are one of the most sensitive regions in terms of climate changes. This also concerns water balance, which plays an important role, especially in the context of the ecological state. Furthermore, numerous studies indicate the atmospheric circulation as one of the crucial factors affecting climate conditions. Therefore, the goal of the paper is to examine the impact of the atmospheric circulation on the changes in climate water balance (CWB) in the Sudetes Mountains and their foreland. The analysis was carried out based on the 1981–2020 data derived from the Polish and Czech meteorological stations. The impact of the circulation factor was examined using the Lityński classification, while the calculation of evapotranspiration based on the Penman–Monteith equation. The results showed that despite positive trends for evapotranspiration, the changes in CWB in 1981–2020 were generally statistically insignificant. The only exception was the increase in CWB under the eastern circulation and its negative tendency for the western and southern sectors for some of the stations. This corresponds to the changes in the frequency of the circulation types. The results of the study can be used in further research on water balance in the region

Climate Water Balance in the Warm Half-Year and Its Circulation Conditions in the Sudetes Mountains and Their Foreland (Poland and Czechia)

Mountains are one of the most sensitive regions in terms of climate changes. This also concerns water balance, which plays an important role, especially in the context of the ecological state. Furthermore, numerous studies indicate the atmospheric circulation as one of the crucial factors affecting climate conditions. Therefore, the goal of the paper is to examine the impact of the atmospheric circulation on the changes in climate water balance (CWB) in the Sudetes Mountains and their foreland. The analysis was carried out based on the 1981–2020 data derived from the Polish and Czech meteorological stations. The impact of the circulation factor was examined using the Lityński classification, while the calculation of evapotranspiration based on the Penman–Monteith equation. The results showed that despite positive trends for evapotranspiration, the changes in CWB in 1981–2020 were generally statistically insignificant. The only exception was the increase in CWB under the eastern circulation and its negative tendency for the western and southern sectors for some of the stations. This corresponds to the changes in the frequency of the circulation types. The results of the study can be used in further research on water balance in the region

Changes in Precipitation Conditions in the Warm Half-Year in the Polish–Saxon Border Region in Relation to the Atmospheric Circulation

Precipitations are one of the most important factors affecting water resources in the transboundary Polish–Saxon region. The main goal of the research was to examine the multiannual changes in precipitations in the April–September period in 1971–2018, depending on circulation conditions, based on Ojrzyńska’s classification. The analysis was carried out based on meteorological data from Polish and German meteorological stations. The results showed that most of precipitation totals and intensive precipitations were observed under SW-A and SW-C circulation, whereas the anticyclonic types of NE-A, NW-A and SW-A were mainly responsible for dry days occurrence. In terms of multiannual changes, most of the stations were characterized by insignificant trends for the considered indices. Some positive trends were observed for intensive precipitations in the lower hypsometric zones. In the mountains, a decreasing tendency dominated for both precipitation totals and intensive precipitations, especially for the northern types of circulation. Furthermore, a significant increase was reported throughout the region for most of the indices for the SW-A type, including precipitation totals, strong precipitations and dry days. Considering the observed trends, floods related to heavy rains can intensify in the lowlands, while a potential increase in the anticyclonic circulation can significantly limit water resources in the region

Risk Analysis Related to Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Hydropower Production in the Lusatian Neisse River Basin

Water resources are one of the most important issues affected by climate change. Climate scenarios show that in the upcoming decades, further climate change can occur. It concerns especially air temperature and sunshine duration, whose prognosis indicates a significant rising trend till the end of the century. The goal of the paper was the evaluation of water resources and hydropower production in the future, depending on climate scenarios with a consideration of risk analysis. The analysis was carried out on the basis of observation data for the Lusatian Neisse river basin (Poland) for 1971–2015 and climate projections till 2100 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathways) scenarios. The results of the research showed that, especially in terms of RCP8.5, very high risk of decrease in water resources and hydropower production is expected in the future. Therefore, recommendations for mitigation of the possible effects are presented