Toward a joint modeling of land-use, transport and economy

It is widely accepted that spatial settlement and transportation are closely related: land use changes have impacts on the performance of the transportation network and changes in the transport system have impacts on settlement behavior. In a recent workshop on evaluation of large transport related infrastructure projects, in which research findings in The Netherlands and the UK were compared, it was concluded that determination of indirect effects related to a new spatial equilibrium, remains a challenge in project evaluation. Indirect effects related to large infrastructure projects may well exceed the direct effects. A research project has started at Delft University of Technology to develop a suitable model instrument for a dynamic modeling of the land-use and transportation system and assessment of economic impacts. The research will use and extend the existing MOBILEC model of the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management in the Netherlands. The MOBILEC model is an interregional model that describes the relationship between economy, mobility and infrastructure. The model is a neoclassical growth model and uses macroeconomic relationships on the level of regions. In the paper a short overview will be presented of the overall framework for the modeling. Incorporation of the mutual influences of the economy, land-use and transport sectors receive special emphasis in this framework. The economy, transport system, labor market and housing market are endogenous in the modeling. The particular contribution of this dissertation research is the development of a model for the labor and housing market and the integration of these markets in the MOBILEC framework. In the current modeling the scale level of the COROP-regions (40 economical zones in the Netherlands) is used to determine of the real geographic product. In the new version the determination of the real geographic product will remain at the COROP-level, but for the housing an labor market a more detailed scale level will be used. At this detailed scale level the potential or attractiveness of zones for settlement of particular functions will be derived from the characteristics of the location itself and the accessibility to facilities in the region (employment, recreational, etc.). Discrete choice techniques will be used to determine the user preferences for settlement. The labor and housing market module will operate in a dynamic environment with a long term perspective, time increments of 3 years will be used. In the MOBILEC model an extended Cobb-Douglas production function is used to calculate the real geographic product of a region. One of the factors in the function concerns productive traffic. In this way the impact of the productive mobility (freight transport and business traffic) on the regional geographic product can be calculated. The inclusion of the housing market and labor market in the framework creates extra opportunities to analyze land-use and transport related issues, such as: indirect economical impacts as agglomeration effects or labor market imperfections. In the first version the agglomeration effects will be included in the real geographic product. analysis of spatial - and transport policies in an integrated way. analysis of commuter traffic in more detail.

Modelling of residential land-use, in a joint framework of land-use, transport and economy

An evaluation scheme for transport infrastructure projects, presently adopted by the Dutch government, includes a research challenge to develop a spatial-economic model addressing the indirect impacts of infrastructure measures. Presently several developments in the field of spatial-economic modelling are ongoing in the Netherlands. The Mobilec model is an example of such a development. The Mobilec model is an interregional model, at NUTS3 level, that describes the relationship between productivity, mobility and infrastructure. The current model lacks spatial detail and an adequate modelling of the housing market and labour market. These aspects need to be included to model the location effects. The proposed paper will explore the development of a housing market model, at a spatially detailed level, within the Mobilec framework. The housing market modelling approach should incorporate the context of a strongly regulated housing market in the Netherlands. International state-of-the-art housing market modelling approaches, commonly used in the so-called LUTS models, will be used as starting point of the analysis. In the paper the outline of the residential location model will be presented and some first experiences with a test version of the housing market model in association with Mobilec will be reported.

Toward a joint modeling of land-use, transport and economy

It is widely accepted that spatial settlement and transportation are closely related: land use changes have impacts on the performance of the transportation network and changes in the transport system have impacts on settlement behavior. In a recent workshop on evaluation of large transport related infrastructure projects, in which research findings in The Netherlands and the UK were compared, it was concluded that determination of indirect effects related to a new spatial equilibrium, remains a challenge in project evaluation. Indirect effects related to large infrastructure projects may well exceed the direct effects. A research project has started at Delft University of Technology to develop a suitable model instrument for a dynamic modeling of the land-use and transportation system and assessment of economic impacts. The research will use and extend the existing MOBILEC model of the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management in the Netherlands. The MOBILEC model is an interregional model that describes the relationship between economy, mobility and infrastructure. The model is a neoclassical growth model and uses macroeconomic relationships on the level of regions. In the paper a short overview will be presented of the overall framework for the modeling. Incorporation of the mutual influences of the economy, land-use and transport sectors receive special emphasis in this framework. The economy, transport system, labor market and housing market are endogenous in the modeling. The particular contribution of this dissertation research is the development of a model for the labor and housing market and the integration of these markets in the MOBILEC framework. In the current modeling the scale level of the COROP-regions (40 economical zones in the Netherlands) is used to determine of the real geographic product. In the new version the determination of the real geographic product will remain at the COROP-level, but for the housing an labor market a more detailed scale level will be used. At this detailed scale level the potential or attractiveness of zones for settlement of particular functions will be derived from the characteristics of the location itself and the accessibility to facilities in the region (employment, recreational, etc.). Discrete choice techniques will be used to determine the user preferences for settlement. The labor and housing market module will operate in a dynamic environment with a long term perspective, time increments of 3 years will be used. In the MOBILEC model an extended Cobb-Douglas production function is used to calculate the real geographic product of a region. One of the factors in the function concerns productive traffic. In this way the impact of the productive mobility (freight transport and business traffic) on the regional geographic product can be calculated. The inclusion of the housing market and labor market in the framework creates extra opportunities to analyze land-use and transport related issues, such as: indirect economical impacts as agglomeration effects or labor market imperfections. In the first version the agglomeration effects will be included in the real geographic product. analysis of spatial - and transport policies in an integrated way. analysis of commuter traffic in more detail

Modelling of residential land-use, in a joint framework of land-use, transport and economy

An evaluation scheme for transport infrastructure projects, presently adopted by the Dutch government, includes a research challenge to develop a spatial-economic model addressing the indirect impacts of infrastructure measures. Presently several developments in the field of spatial-economic modelling are ongoing in the Netherlands. The Mobilec model is an example of such a development. The Mobilec model is an interregional model, at NUTS3 level, that describes the relationship between productivity, mobility and infrastructure. The current model lacks spatial detail and an adequate modelling of the housing market and labour market. These aspects need to be included to model the location effects. The proposed paper will explore the development of a housing market model, at a spatially detailed level, within the Mobilec framework. The housing market modelling approach should incorporate the context of a strongly regulated housing market in the Netherlands. International state-of-the-art housing market modelling approaches, commonly used in the so-called LUTS models, will be used as starting point of the analysis. In the paper the outline of the residential location model will be presented and some first experiences with a test version of the housing market model in association with Mobilec will be reported

Integrated planning of water and land-use

The role of water in spatial planning has received increasing attention in recent years. It was, for example, one of the leading motives in the preparation of the latest National Spatial Planning Note for The Netherlands. For the preparation of such spatial plans, and to support the associated policy analysis, there is a need to fully identify and characterize the interactions between the water sector and spatial planning and establish the process for making consistent joint projections for the water sector and land-use. This should account for spatial claims from the water sector, balance those claims with claims from other sectors, and feed back spatial constraints and opportunities. Land-use markets and government policies (translated e.g. in spatial reservations) form an important input in this balance. Modeling is indispensable to keep track of spatial characteristics and trace changes. Most of the available modeling considers a layered structure with a layer for national/regional projections and a GIS based layer to keep track of land use changes. Basically such model makes a distribution (rule based) of the national projections into the GIS based spatial raster, followed by an impact assessment based on the changes in the raster. Those models are generally weak in representing the processes driving land use changes such as the housing and labor market and – the water sector. The challenge remains to set up a suitable module covering these spatial - and water sector development processes. Based on the experience of the authors with many water studies and the recent development of a space-transport modeling tool (integration of transport and land-use), a sketch will be made of the requirements for such module. The scope for such planning tool will be illustrated (with data for The Netherlands), addressing key aspects such as competition for space, costs, risk, and environmental impact.

Integrated planning of water and land-use

The role of water in spatial planning has received increasing attention in recent years. It was, for example, one of the leading motives in the preparation of the latest National Spatial Planning Note for The Netherlands. For the preparation of such spatial plans, and to support the associated policy analysis, there is a need to fully identify and characterize the interactions between the water sector and spatial planning and establish the process for making consistent joint projections for the water sector and land-use. This should account for spatial claims from the water sector, balance those claims with claims from other sectors, and feed back spatial constraints and opportunities. Land-use markets and government policies (translated e.g. in spatial reservations) form an important input in this balance. Modeling is indispensable to keep track of spatial characteristics and trace changes. Most of the available modeling considers a layered structure with a layer for national/regional projections and a GIS based layer to keep track of land use changes. Basically such model makes a distribution (rule based) of the national projections into the GIS based spatial raster, followed by an impact assessment based on the changes in the raster. Those models are generally weak in representing the processes driving land use changes such as the housing and labor market and – the water sector. The challenge remains to set up a suitable module covering these spatial - and water sector development processes. Based on the experience of the authors with many water studies and the recent development of a space-transport modeling tool (integration of transport and land-use), a sketch will be made of the requirements for such module. The scope for such planning tool will be illustrated (with data for The Netherlands), addressing key aspects such as competition for space, costs, risk, and environmental impact

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

The development of the TIGRIS XL model: A bottom-up approach to transport, land-use and the economy

The project appraisal method in the Netherlands distinguishes direct effects, indirect distribution effects and indirect generative effects. Transport models are generally available for calculating the benefits of transport projects to travellers as part of the direct effects. The TIGRIS XL model, a Land-Use and Transport Interaction model, adds indirect distribution effects for the housing and labour market, by modelling changes in the spatial distribution of jobs and residents. This paper describes the current TIGRIS XL model and how it can be applied in the evaluation of transport projects. It refers to work done with the TIGRIS XL model to improve the calculation of the direct benefits by applying the so-called [`]logsum' method. Finally it discusses ideas on how to extend the TIGRIS XL model to address indirect generative effects as well. The current TIGRIS XL model, its integration with the National Model System (the standard tool for the Dutch government to analyse the effects on passenger transport) and basic design principles are the starting point of such an exploration. These design principles include: - an emphasis on detail, both spatial as well as in socio-economic segments, to account for differences in the availability of choice alternatives and in choice behaviour, and to provide impacts by region and socio-economic group; - the requirement that the relationships used rest on an empirical foundation. The post-processing methods proposed on this paper for the calculation of the direct benefits and indirect generative effects are consistent with these design principles. To calculate the indirect generative effects, a post-processing module is proposed which transforms changes in travel times and land-use into agglomeration effects. These agglomeration effects combine several of the generative effects, like scale economies, an increasing variety of products, labour market matches and knowledge spill-over. The effects of changes in the agglomeration indicator on productivity can be estimated with existing data sources, as was demonstrated in the UK (Graham, 2005).Land use Transport Economy