Fistula recurrence, pregnancy, and childbirth following successful closure of female genital fistula in Guinea : a longitudinal study

Background: Female genital fistula is a devastating maternal complication of delivery in developing countries. We sought to analyse the incidence and proportion of fistula recurrence, residual urinary incontinence, and pregnancy after successful fistula closure in Guinea, and describe the delivery-associated maternal and child health outcomes. Methods: We did a longitudinal study in women discharged with a closed fistula from three repair hospitals supported by Engender Health in Guinea. We recruited women retrospectively (via medical record review) and prospectively at hospital discharge. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to analyse the cumulative incidence, incidence proportion, and incidence ratio of fistula recurrence, associated outcomes, and pregnancy after successful fistula closure. The primary outcome was recurrence of fistula following discharge from repair hospital in all eligible women who consented to inclusion and could provide follow-up data. Findings: 481 women eligible for analysis were identified retrospectively (from Jan 1, 2012, to Dec 31, 2014; 348 women) or prospectively (Jan 1 to June 20, 2015; 133 women), and followed up until June 30, 2016. Median follow-up was 28.0 months (IQR 14.6-36.6). 73 recurrent fistulas occurred, corresponding to a cumulative incidence of 71 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 56.5-89.3) and an incidence proportion of 18.4% (14.8-22.8). In 447 women who were continent at hospital discharge, we recorded 24 cases of post-repair residual urinary incontinence, equivalent to a cumulative incidence of 23.1 per 1000 person-years (14.0-36.2), and corresponding to 10.3% (5.2-19.6). In 305 women at risk of pregnancy, the cumulative incidence of pregnancy was 106.0 per 1000 person-years, corresponding to 28.4% (22.8-35.0) of these women. Of 50 women who had delivered by the time of follow-up, only nine delivered by elective caesarean section. There were 12 stillbirths, seven delivery-related fistula recurrences, and one maternal death. Interpretation: Recurrence of female genital fistula and adverse pregnancy-related maternal and child health outcomes were frequent in women after fistula repair in Guinea. Interventions are needed to safeguard the health of women after fistula repair

Quantifying the value of viral genomics when inferring who infected whom in the 2014–16 Ebola virus outbreak in Guinea

Transmission trees can be established through detailed contact histories, statistical or phylogenetic inference, or a combination of methods. Each approach has its limitations, and the extent to which they succeed in revealing a 'true' transmission history remains unclear. In this study, we compared the transmission trees obtained through contact tracing investigations and various inference methods to identify the contribution and value of each approach. We studied eighty-six sequenced cases reported in Guinea between March and November 2015. Contact tracing investigations classified these cases into eight independent transmission chains. We inferred the transmission history from the genetic sequences of the cases (phylogenetic approach), their onset date (epidemiological approach), and a combination of both (combined approach). The inferred transmission trees were then compared to those from the contact tracing investigations. Inference methods using individual data sources (i.e. the phylogenetic analysis and the epidemiological approach) were insufficiently informative to accurately reconstruct the transmission trees and the direction of transmission. The combined approach was able to identify a reduced pool of infectors for each case and highlight likely connections among chains classified as independent by the contact tracing investigations. Overall, the transmissions identified by the contact tracing investigations agreed with the evolutionary history of the viral genomes, even though some cases appeared to be misclassified. Therefore, collecting genetic sequences during outbreak is key to supplement the information contained in contact tracing investigations. Although none of the methods we used could identify one unique infector per case, the combined approach highlighted the added value of mixing epidemiological and genetic information to reconstruct who infected whom

Determinants of Transmission Risk During the Late Stage of the West African Ebola Epidemic.

Understanding risk factors for Ebola transmission is key for effective prediction and design of interventions. We used data on 860 cases in 129 chains of transmission from the latter half of the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Guinea. Using negative binomial regression, we determined characteristics associated with the number of secondary cases resulting from each infected individual. We found that attending an Ebola treatment unit was associated with a 38% decrease in secondary cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38, 0.99) among individuals that did not survive. Unsafe burial was associated with a higher number of secondary cases (IRR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.02). The average number of secondary cases was higher for the first generation of a transmission chain (mean = 1.77) compared with subsequent generations (mean = 0.70). Children were least likely to transmit (IRR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.57) compared with adults, whereas older adults were associated with higher numbers of secondary cases. Men were less likely to transmit than women (IRR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.93). This detailed surveillance data set provided an invaluable insight into transmission routes and risks. Our analysis highlights the key role that age, receiving treatment, and safe burial played in the spread of EVD

Fistula recurrence, pregnancy, and childbirth following successful closure of female genital fistula in Guinea: a longitudinal study

Background: Female genital fistula is a devastating maternal complication of delivery in developing countries. We sought to analyse the incidence and proportion of fistula recurrence, residual urinary incontinence, and pregnancy after successful fistula closure in Guinea, and describe the delivery-associated maternal and child health outcomes. Methods: We did a longitudinal study in women discharged with a closed fistula from three repair hospitals supported by EngenderHealth in Guinea. We recruited women retrospectively (via medical record review) and prospectively at hospital discharge. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to analyse the cumulative incidence, incidence proportion, and incidence ratio of fistula recurrence, associated outcomes, and pregnancy after successful fistula closure. The primary outcome was recurrence of fistula following discharge from repair hospital in all eligible women who consented to inclusion and could provide follow-up data. Findings: 481 women eligible for analysis were identified retrospectively (from Jan 1, 2012, to Dec 31, 2014; 348 women) or prospectively (Jan 1 to June 20, 2015; 133 women), and followed up until June 30, 2016. Median follow-up was 28·0 months (IQR 14·6–36·6). 73 recurrent fistulas occurred, corresponding to a cumulative incidence of 71 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 56·5–89·3) and an incidence proportion of 18·4% (14·8–22·8). In 447 women who were continent at hospital discharge, we recorded 24 cases of post-repair residual urinary incontinence, equivalent to a cumulative incidence of 23·1 per 1000 person-years (14·0–36·2), and corresponding to 10·3% (5·2–19·6). In 305 women at risk of pregnancy, the cumulative incidence of pregnancy was 106·0 per 1000 person-years, corresponding to 28·4% (22·8–35·0) of these women. Of 50 women who had delivered by the time of follow-up, only nine delivered by elective caesarean section. There were 12 stillbirths, seven delivery-related fistula recurrences, and one maternal death. Interpretation: Recurrence of female genital fistula and adverse pregnancy-related maternal and child health outcomes were frequent in women after fistula repair in Guinea. Interventions are needed to safeguard the health of women after fistula repair. Funding: Belgian Development Cooperation (DGD), Institute of Tropical Medicine of Antwerp (ITM), and Maferinyah Training and Research Center in Rural Health (Guinea)

Experimental treatment with Favipiravir for Ebola Virus Disease (the JIKI Trial) : a historically controlled, single-arm proof-of-concept trial in Guinea

BACKGROUND:Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly lethal condition for which no specific treatment has proven efficacy. In September 2014, while the Ebola outbreak was at its peak, the World Health Organization released a short list of drugs suitable for EVD research. Favipiravir, an antiviral developed for the treatment of severe influenza, was one of these. In late 2014, the conditions for starting a randomized Ebola trial were not fulfilled for two reasons. One was the perception that, given the high number of patients presenting simultaneously and the very high mortality rate of the disease, it was ethically unacceptable to allocate patients from within the same family or village to receive or not receive an experimental drug, using a randomization process impossible to understand by very sick patients. The other was that, in the context of rumors and distrust of Ebola treatment centers, using a randomized design at the outset might lead even more patients to refuse to seek care. Therefore, we chose to conduct a multicenter non-randomized trial, in which all patients would receive favipiravir along with standardized care. The objectives of the trial were to test the feasibility and acceptability of an emergency trial in the context of a large Ebola outbreak, and to collect data on the safety and effectiveness of favipiravir in reducing mortality and viral load in patients with EVD. The trial was not aimed at directly informing future guidelines on Ebola treatment but at quickly gathering standardized preliminary data to optimize the design of future studies.METHODS AND FINDINGS:Inclusion criteria were positive Ebola virus reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) test, age ≥ 1 y, weight ≥ 10 kg, ability to take oral drugs, and informed consent. All participants received oral favipiravir (day 0: 6,000 mg; day 1 to day 9: 2,400 mg/d). Semi-quantitative Ebola virus RT-PCR (results expressed in "cycle threshold" [Ct]) and biochemistry tests were performed at day 0, day 2, day 4, end of symptoms, day 14, and day 30. Frozen samples were shipped to a reference biosafety level 4 laboratory for RNA viral load measurement using a quantitative reference technique (genome copies/milliliter). Outcomes were mortality, viral load evolution, and adverse events. The analysis was stratified by age and Ct value. A "target value" of mortality was defined a priori for each stratum, to guide the interpretation of interim and final analysis. Between 17 December 2014 and 8 April 2015, 126 patients were included, of whom 111 were analyzed (adults and adolescents, ≥13 y, n = 99; young children, ≤6 y, n = 12). Here we present the results obtained in the 99 adults and adolescents. Of these, 55 had a baseline Ct value ≥ 20 (Group A Ct ≥ 20), and 44 had a baseline Ct value < 20 (Group A Ct < 20). Ct values and RNA viral loads were well correlated, with Ct = 20 corresponding to RNA viral load = 7.7 log10 genome copies/ml. Mortality was 20% (95% CI 11.6%-32.4%) in Group A Ct ≥ 20 and 91% (95% CI 78.8%-91.1%) in Group A Ct < 20. Both mortality 95% CIs included the predefined target value (30% and 85%, respectively). Baseline serum creatinine was ≥110 μmol/l in 48% of patients in Group A Ct ≥ 20 (≥300 μmol/l in 14%) and in 90% of patients in Group A Ct < 20 (≥300 μmol/l in 44%). In Group A Ct ≥ 20, 17% of patients with baseline creatinine ≥110 μmol/l died, versus 97% in Group A Ct < 20. In patients who survived, the mean decrease in viral load was 0.33 log10 copies/ml per day of follow-up. RNA viral load values and mortality were not significantly different between adults starting favipiravir within <72 h of symptoms compared to others. Favipiravir was well tolerated.CONCLUSIONS:In the context of an outbreak at its peak, with crowded care centers, randomizing patients to receive either standard care or standard care plus an experimental drug was not felt to be appropriate. We did a non-randomized trial. This trial reaches nuanced conclusions. On the one hand, we do not conclude on the efficacy of the drug, and our conclusions on tolerance, although encouraging, are not as firm as they could have been if we had used randomization. On the other hand, we learned about how to quickly set up and run an Ebola trial, in close relationship with the community and non-governmental organizations; we integrated research into care so that it improved care; and we generated knowledge on EVD that is useful to further research. Our data illustrate the frequency of renal dysfunction and the powerful prognostic value of low Ct values. They suggest that drug trials in EVD should systematically stratify analyses by baseline Ct value, as a surrogate of viral load. They also suggest that favipiravir monotherapy merits further study in patients with medium to high viremia, but not in those with very high viremia.TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02329054.Evaluation of the efficacy and of the antiviral activity of T-705 (favipiravir) duringEbola virus infection in non-human primates humansEbola Virus Disease - correlates of protection, determinants of outcome, and clinical managemen