Understanding the diversity of 21 cm cosmology analyses

21 cm power spectrum observations have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the epoch of reionization and dark energy, but require extraordinarily precise data analysis methods to separate the cosmological signal from the astrophysical and instrumental contaminants. This analysis challenge has led to a diversity of proposed analyses, including delay spectra, imaging power spectra, m-mode analysis, and numerous others. This diversity of approach is a strength, but has also led to a confusion within the community about whether insights gleaned by one group are applicable to teams working in different analysis frameworks. In this paper, we show that all existing analysis proposals can be classified into two distinct families based on whether they estimate the power spectrum of the measured or reconstructed sky. This subtle difference in the statistical question posed largely determines the susceptibility of the analyses to foreground emission and calibration errors, and ultimately the science different analyses can pursue. In this paper, we detail the origin of the two analysis families, categorize the analyses being actively developed, and explore their relative sensitivities to foreground contamination and calibration errors.National Science Foundation (NSF) [1613855, 1613040, 1506024, 1636646]; National Aeronautivcal and Space Administration [80NSSC18K0389]; NSF Astronomy and Astrophysics Postdoctoral Fellowship [1701440]This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Exploring reionization and high-z galaxy observables with recent multiredshift MWA upper limits on the 21-cm signal

We use the latest multiredshift (z = 6.5-8.7) upper limits on the 21-cm signal from the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) to explore astrophysical models which are inconsistent with the data. We explore these limits in the context of reionization astrophysics by using 21CMMC to connect the disfavoured regions of parameter space to existing observational constraints on reionization such as high-z galaxy ultraviolet (UV) luminosity functions, the background UV photoionization rate, the intergalactic medium (IGM) neutral fraction, the electron scattering optical depth and the soft-band X-ray emissivity. We find the vast majority of disfavoured models to already be inconsistent with existing observational constraints. These can be broadly classified into two types of models: (i) 'cold' reionization and (ii) pure matter density fluctuations in a cold, neutral IGM (i.e. no reionization). Interestingly, a small subsample of models inconsistent with the MWA is consistent with the aforementioned constraints (excluding the X-ray emissivity). This implies that the current MWA limits are already providing unique information to disfavour models of reionization, albeit extremely weakly. We also provide the first limits on the soft-band X-ray emissivity from galaxies at high redshifts, finding 1σ lower limits of X, 0.5-2 keV 1034.5 erg s-1 Mpc-3. Finally, we recover 95 per cent disfavoured limits on the IGM spin temperature of TS 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.8, 2.1, and 2.4 K at z = 6.5, 6.8, 7.1, 7.8, 8.2, and 8.7. With this, we infer the IGM must have undergone, at the very least, a small amount of X-ray heating. Note, the limits on X, 0.5-2 keV and TS are conditional on the IGM neutral fraction

Associations of Neighborhood Opportunity and Social Vulnerability With Trajectories of Childhood Body Mass Index and Obesity Among US Children

IMPORTANCE: Physical and social neighborhood attributes may have implications for children\u27s growth and development patterns. The extent to which these attributes are associated with body mass index (BMI) trajectories and obesity risk from childhood to adolescence remains understudied. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations of neighborhood-level measures of opportunity and social vulnerability with trajectories of BMI and obesity risk from birth to adolescence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used data from 54 cohorts (20 677 children) participating in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) program from January 1, 1995, to January 1, 2022. Participant inclusion required at least 1 geocoded residential address and anthropometric measure (taken at the same time or after the address date) from birth through adolescence. Data were analyzed from February 1 to June 30, 2022. EXPOSURES: Census tract-level Child Opportunity Index (COI) and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) linked to geocoded residential addresses at birth and in infancy (age range, 0.5-1.5 years), early childhood (age range, 2.0-4.8 years), and mid-childhood (age range, 5.0-9.8 years). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: BMI (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by length [if aged \u3c2 \u3eyears] or height in meters squared) and obesity (age- and sex-specific BMI ≥95th percentile). Based on nationwide distributions of the COI and SVI, Census tract rankings were grouped into 5 categories: very low (\u3c20th \u3epercentile), low (20th percentile to \u3c40th \u3epercentile), moderate (40th percentile to \u3c60th \u3epercentile), high (60th percentile to \u3c80th \u3epercentile), or very high (≥80th percentile) opportunity (COI) or vulnerability (SVI). RESULTS: Among 20 677 children, 10 747 (52.0%) were male; 12 463 of 20 105 (62.0%) were White, and 16 036 of 20 333 (78.9%) were non-Hispanic. (Some data for race and ethnicity were missing.) Overall, 29.9% of children in the ECHO program resided in areas with the most advantageous characteristics. For example, at birth, 26.7% of children lived in areas with very high COI, and 25.3% lived in areas with very low SVI; in mid-childhood, 30.6% lived in areas with very high COI and 28.4% lived in areas with very low SVI. Linear mixed-effects models revealed that at every life stage, children who resided in areas with higher COI (vs very low COI) had lower mean BMI trajectories and lower risk of obesity from childhood to adolescence, independent of family sociodemographic and prenatal characteristics. For example, among children with obesity at age 10 years, the risk ratio was 0.21 (95% CI, 0.12-0.34) for very high COI at birth, 0.31 (95% CI, 0.20-0.51) for high COI at birth, 0.46 (95% CI, 0.28-0.74) for moderate COI at birth, and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.32-0.86) for low COI at birth. Similar patterns of findings were observed for children who resided in areas with lower SVI (vs very high SVI). For example, among children with obesity at age 10 years, the risk ratio was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.10-0.30) for very low SVI at birth, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.11-0.35) for low SVI at birth, 0.42 (95% CI, 0.24-0.75) for moderate SVI at birth, and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.24-0.76) for high SVI at birth. For both indices, effect estimates for mean BMI difference and obesity risk were larger at an older age of outcome measurement. In addition, exposure to COI or SVI at birth was associated with the most substantial difference in subsequent mean BMI and risk of obesity compared with exposure at later life stages. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, residing in higher-opportunity and lower-vulnerability neighborhoods in early life, especially at birth, was associated with a lower mean BMI trajectory and a lower risk of obesity from childhood to adolescence. Future research should clarify whether initiatives or policies that alter specific components of neighborhood environment would be beneficial in preventing excess weight in children