A balança comercial do agronegócio brasileiro de 1989 a 2005

Este trabalho analisa a contribuição do agronegócio para o saldo comercial do Brasil. Uma nova classificação de balança comercial do agronegócio foi criada e usada para analisar os lados dos produtos exportados (representados pelos produtos agrícolas, produtos de origem animal e alimentos industrializados) e dos insumos importados (representados pelos fertilizantes) para o período de 1989 a 2005. Foram elaborados modelos de importação e exportação a fim de retratar e explicar o comportamento dessas variáveis, empregando a Análise de Auto-Regressões Vetoriais (Vector Autoregression Analysis - VAR). Pôde-se observar que um aumento de 1% na atratividade - dada pelo produto do câmbio e dos preços externos - impulsiona as exportações de produtos agrícolas não processados em 1,71% imediatamente, estabilizando-se em 2% após alguns trimestres. A atratividade explica de 60% a 74% da variância dos erros de previsão dessas exportações. Nota-se que uma desvalorização cambial, por exemplo, aumenta mais as exportações de produtos do que as importações de fertilizantes. Além disso, um crescimento de 1% no PIB doméstico exerce impacto expressivo (convergindo em -1,7%) de contenção das exportações dos produtos agrícolas.This study aims to analyze the agribusiness contribution to Brazil's trade balance. A new classification of the agribusiness trade balance was proposed and used to analyze the aspects of the exported products - agricultural products, products of animal origin, industrialized foods and imported inputs - represented by fertilizers. Imports and exports vector autoregression models were used to explain the behavior of these variables. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness - product of the exchange rate by the international prices - boosts immediately the exports of non processed agricultural products by 1.71%, stabilizing at 2% after some trimesters. The attractiveness explains 60 to 74% of the forecast error variances of these exportats. It is noted that an exchange rate devaluation stimulates more the exports of products than it does the fertilizer imports. Besides, an increase of 1% of the GDP has an expressive impact (converging into -1.7%) on agricultural products exports

Diversification as a Form of Risk Management in Agriculture

The objective of this study is to show the importance of diversification in the risk management process. The study areas are: Mato Grosso, with large properties, and Rio Grande do Sul with small. The developed activities are annual cultures and cattle for slaughter. The hypotheses of the work are: a) rural producers diversify their activities using modern techniques. b) Diversification has been efficient in the producers' risks reduction. c) Producers tend be as effective as possible, though they differ in the rates of risk aversion. The MOTAD and E-V models were used.Farm Management,

Environmental regulation and international trade patterns for agro-industrial under a South-North Perspective

This paper aims at examining the relation between the international trade and the environment, particularly focused on sensitive agribusiness sectors. It consists on an empirical test to the conflicting positions supported by economists, some following the traditional approach (trade-off or neoclassical), while others supporting the Porter’s hypothesis, which considers that impacts of the stricter environmental regulation can benefit the trade competitiveness. A Heckscher-Ohlin- Vanek model was applied to net exports as the dependent variable. The agricultural products analyzed were total agriculture, rice, maize, soybean, wheat, dairy and swine; run for 97 countries, divided as developing and developed, in a cross-section approach. This modeling allows including the environmental endowment as explanatory variables. Moreover the Environmental Performance Index (Esty et al, 2008) was also tried as explanatory variables in order to catch any effect of the environmental regulation on the trade patterns. Results were not conclusively as they show that the net exports of the selected products, considered environmentally sensitive, can be affected even positively or negatively (neoclassical approach) by the environmental regulation. The results depend on the products. A remarkable outcome to highlight is that the dummy for developing countries and developed countries was significant, pointing that for rice, for example, it makes difference being a developing country, as well as it does for wheat, being a developed country.Trade, environmental regulation, agribusiness, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade,

O EFEITO DAS IMPORTAÇÕES MUNDIAIS SOBRE AS EXPORTAÇÕES DO AGRONEGÓCIO BRASILEIRO – UMA ANÁLISE EMPÍRICA PARA O PERÍODO 2000/2007

Ao longo do período 2000/2007 o setor externo do agronegócio brasileiro encontrou uma conjuntura altamente favorável para o aumento de suas exportações, pois se combinou uma situação de forte expansão da economia mundial com elevação dos preços internacionais de commodities. No âmbito interno, os ganhos de produtividade permitiram o avanço das exportações, enquanto que a valorização cambial, iniciada em meados de 2004, praticamente eliminou os efeitos positivos da elevação dos preços internacionais. Esse trabalho mostra que, a despeito dos efeitos negativos da valorização cambial, o crescimento das importações mundiais teve efeito relevante (em torno de 20%) no aumento das exportações brasileiras do agronegócio entre os anos de 2000 e 2007.-----------------------------------------------Over the period 2000/2007 the external sector of Brazilian agribusiness found a favorable environment to increase their exports, which combined a situation of strong expansion of the world economy with elevation in international commodities prices. On the domestic front, productivity gains enabled the progress of exports, while the exchange rate overvaluation, which began in mid-2004, virtually eliminated the positive effects of the international prices increasing. This work shows that, despite the negative effects of exchange rate overvaluation, the growth of world imports took relevant effect (around 20%) on the Brazilian agribusiness exports evolution on the period from 2000 to 2007.Importações mundiais, taxa de câmbio, exportações do agronegócio, World imports, exchange rate, agribusiness exports, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,

The Determinants of the Brazilian Farm Prices

The findings presented in this paper come from our study of the effects of Brazilian macroeconomic policy on the Brazilian Farm [product] Price Index using an adapted version of Frankel’s (1986 & 2006) theoretical model. The study examined the connection between Brazilian farm prices and external variables (worldwide importation of agribusiness products, international commodity prices, and foreign real interest rates) and between Brazilian farm prices and domestic variables (GDP, the real exchange rate, and local interest rates).Brazilian farm prices, interest rate differentials, international commodity prices and exchange rate., Agribusiness, Political Economy, Q, E4, E5,

Futuros agropecuários em portfólios de máxima utilidade esperada

This study investigates the composition of maximum expected utility portfolio, considering stocks, bonds, gold, dollar and agricultural futures contract, between August of 1994 and December of 2007. From the optimal combinations of risk-return (calculated by Markowitz algorithm) and the use of a quadratic utility function (with different levels of risk aversion), were obtained portfolios that maximizes expected utility. The commodity futures were not present in the maximum expected utility portfolios for the complete period, 1994-2000. However, with division of sample in two and three periods, the commodity futures were included in these portfolios during the 2000s. Furthermore, in general, with the risk aversion increase, the participation of these papers in the portfolio had fall.Portfolio, Agricultural futures contract, Utility, Risk and Uncertainty,

Mercado nacional de informação digital agroeconômica

O estudo analisa o mercado nacional de informação digital agroeconômica. No lado da oferta, o referencial teórico utilizado é o da Economia da Informação, enquanto o da demanda é baseado em um modelo de maximização de lucro que considera a informação um insumo. Empiricamente, avaliaram-se os sites com conteúdo agroeconômico brasileiro, e a estimativa da função de consumo foi feita com dados obtidos de questionários aplicados aos agentes do agronegócio entre outubro de 2002 a janeiro de 2003. A conclusão geral foi que as empresas de informação, para se manterem viáveis na internet, precisam ampliar a receita e o número de assinantes. Elas pouco aproveitam a tecnologia da internet para praticar arranjos mais criativos de discriminação de preços. Os resultados das estimativas de demanda indicam que os agentes ligados ao agribusiness consomem mais informação digital que os produtores. Além disso, a escolaridade apresenta-se como uma barreira para o acesso a esta tecnologia.The objective is to analyze the market for Brazilian digital agricultural economic information. The theoretical analysis of the supply is through the Economics of Information and the demand is through a model that the information is considered an input to maximization the profit. Data were collected through the list of sites of Brazilian internet service providers to analyze the supply side. On the demand side, data were collected through the application of a questionnaire with the endusers of internet between October of 2002 and January of 2003. The general conclusion is that the private companies to remain in the internet need to increase receipts and the number of subscribers. They take little advantages of this technology to practice creative arrangements of price discrimination. Estimates of the consumption functions indicate that the nonfarm agribusiness consumes more digital information than the farmers. The level of education presents a restriction to access to this technology

A regra ótima de armazenamento de arroz no Brasil

Este trabalho pretende aplicar um modelo econômico dinâmico de expectativas racionais para armazenamento de arroz no Brasil com o intuito de modelar a decisão de estocagem. Estas quantidades de estoque maximizam os efeitos de bem-estar oriundos da introdução da estocagem como uma atividade econômica competitiva em um mercado com oferta estocástica, em que todos os indivíduos são maximizadores de lucro com expectativas racionais. Os impactos dependem, principalmente, da informação disponível ao produtor antes do armazenamento ser introduzido, da elasticidade da oferta de área, da especificação da curva de demanda, da taxa de juros considerada e do custo de estocagem. Estas funções e valores foram utilizados para a estimação de um modelo dinâmico de expectativas racionais, através de programação dinâmica estocástica, aproximando uma função de preço esperado e área plantada em função do estoque inicial, fazendo uso de polinômio de quarto grau no estoque, no qual se encontrou uma disponibilidade crítica, a partir da qual ocorrerá armazenamento como uma atividade econômica. Em seguida, procedeu-se à estimação de simulações de longo prazo com o intuito de avaliar os impactos de altos e baixos estoques iniciais no mercado. Os resultados demonstraram que estes impactos podem ser percebidos por cerca de três ou quatro safras.This paper aims to analyze the rice Storage in Brazil through a dynamic economic model of rational expectations in order to model the storage decision. The Storage quantities maximize the welfare in a competitive market with stochastic supply, in which all individuals are profit maximizers with rational expectations. The impacts depend mainly on the information available to the producer before storage is introduced, the elasticity of area supply, the specification of the demand curve, the storage costs and the rate of interest. These functions were used to estimate a dynamic model of rational expectations by a area supply function and expected price according to original storage, using a fourth degree polynomial in the stock. Then, a long-term simulation was estimated with the aim of show the impacts of high and low initial amount of storage in the market. The results showed that these impacts can be perceived for three or four seasons

Ajustes nos mercados de álcool e gasolina entre os anos de 1995 e 2000

The aim ofthis study was analyze and characterize the fuel markets — gasoline and anhydrous ethanol, relating the changes effects in associated variables to supply and demand about the agents' behavior in a market partly deregulated, that is, between 1995 and 2000. The model was made up of five equations, being one of gasoline C to retailing and four of fuel prices. The mainly conclusions were: the demand variations tended to be met without major changes in the price of gasoline and its compounds; the wholesale gasoline C and gasoline A at refineries prices adjustments, even moderated, were reposed partly to retailing; the government had a tendency to absorve the external shocks of prices and did not repose immediately to retailing and the retailing did not repose, at the same extent, to the final consumer. The research results reflected sectors still operating under State domain, which controlled their operations without necessarily meeting the economic logic

Importações brasileiras de leite: impactos micro e macroeconômicos

During the decade of the 1990's several significant changes took place in the milk agroindustry sector in Brazil: the sector was deregulated after 46 years of state control; new milk products were created; the market share of multinational enterprises increased; the Mercosul was created; and the economy was opened through tariff reduction and deregulations. Only a few countries participate in the world milk trade. Major importers and exporters are members of OECD. The trade share of countries like Brazil and India in rather small. The general objective of this study is to analyze the micro and macro factors that influenced the imports of milk by Brazil during the period from 1991 to 2003. The milk imports market is analyzed through "back to back" graphic system such that Brazil imports demand faces the world export supply.Nos anos 1990 houve mudanças significativas no setor agroindustrial do leite no Brasil. Dentre elas destacam-se: a desregulamentação do rigoroso controle estatal após 46 anos (1945-1991); o lançamento de novos produtos; a entrada de multinacionais; a criação do Mercosul e a abertura comercial generalizada. O comércio mundial de lácteos tem a participação de poucos países, sendo os principais importadores e exportadores os países membros da OCDE. Países como o Brasil e a Índia possuem parcelas pouco expressivas do volume de comércio. O objetivo geral da pesquisa é analisar os fatores que têm influenciado as importações de lácteos pelo Brasil no período de 1991 a 2003. A metodologia empregada para medir os impactos sobre as importações de leite de variáveis micro e macroeconômicas foi a de séries temporais. Incorporou-se uma análise gráfica a partir do diagrama back to back. Utilizou-se a equação de excesso de demanda para definir a demanda por importação de leite