Dutch Outcome in Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Therapy:Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator-Related Complications in a Contemporary Primary Prevention Cohort

Background One third of primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator patients receive appropriate therapy, but all remain at risk of defibrillator complications. Information on these complications in contemporary cohorts is limited. This study assessed complications and their risk factors after defibrillator implantation in a Dutch nationwide prospective registry cohort and forecasts the potential reduction in complications under distinct scenarios of updated indication criteria. Methods and Results Complications in a prospective multicenter registry cohort of 1442 primary implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implant patients were classified as major or minor. The potential for reducing complications was derived from a newly developed prediction model of appropriate therapy to identify patients with a low probability of benefitting from the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. During a follow-up of 2.2 years (interquartile range, 2.0-2.6 years), 228 complications occurred in 195 patients (13.6%), with 113 patients (7.8%) experiencing at least one major complication. Most common ones were lead related (n=93) and infection (n=18). Minor complications occurred in 6.8% of patients, with lead-related (n=47) and pocket-related (n=40) complications as the most prevailing ones. A surgical reintervention or additional hospitalization was required in 53% or 61% of complications, respectively. Complications were strongly associated with device type. Application of stricter implant indication results in a comparable proportional reduction of (major) complications. Conclusions One in 13 patients experiences at least one major implantable cardioverter-defibrillator-related complication, and many patients undergo a surgical reintervention. Complications are related to defibrillator implantations, and these should be discussed with the patient. Stricter implant indication criteria and careful selection of device type implanted may have significant clinical and financial benefits

Immunopathogenesis and Immune Modulation of Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus-Induced Disease in the Mouse

AbstractThe course of Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) disease in immunodeficient and immunologically normal mice was compared to define the role of the immune system in this disease process. Immunocompetent mice infected with VEE exhibited a biphasic illness characterized by an early self-limiting lymphoid phase and a fatal CNS phase. The lymphoid phase of the illness was characterized by extensive viral replication within spleen, thymus, Peyer's patches, and lymph nodes, was accompanied by a high-titered serum viremia, and resolved with the production of VEE-specific IgM class antibody at 72 h postinfection (p.i.). Immunocompetent animals survived an average of 6.8 ± 1.2 days before succumbing to fulminant encephalitis. In contrast, SCID mice infected with VEE showed a persistent replication of virus throughout all organs tested beginning at 24 h p.i. VEE-infected SCID mice exhibited a severe spongiform encephalopathy with 100% mortality and an average survival time of 8.9 ± 0.9 days. These studies indicated that the characteristic organ tropism of VEE in the mouse is due in large part to an early anti-viral state, the establishment of which is dependent upon the presence of an intact immune system. Finally, the CNS pathology in a VEE-infected mouse had a significant immunologic component. However, in contrast to other neurovirulent alphaviruses, VEE was directly cytopathic for the cells of the CNS, even in the absence of an immune response

Handling missing predictor values when validating and applying a prediction model to new patients

Missing data present challenges for development and real-world application of clinical prediction models. While these challenges have received considerable attention in the development setting, there is only sparse research on the handling of missing data in applied settings. The main unique feature of handling missing data in these settings is that missing data methods have to be performed for a single new individual, precluding direct application of mainstay methods used during model development. Correspondingly, we propose that it is desirable to perform model validation using missing data methods that transfer to practice in single new patients. This article compares existing and new methods to account for missing data for a new individual in the context of prediction. These methods are based on (i) submodels based on observed data only, (ii) marginalization over the missing variables, or (iii) imputation based on fully conditional specification (also known as chained equations). They were compared in an internal validation setting to highlight the use of missing data methods that transfer to practice while validating a model. As a reference, they were compared to the use of multiple imputation by chained equations in a set of test patients, because this has been used in validation studies in the past. The methods were evaluated in a simulation study where performance was measured by means of optimism corrected C-statistic and mean squared prediction error. Furthermore, they were applied in data from a large Dutch cohort of prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator patients

TERRORISM AND DETERRENCE POLICY WITH TRANSNATIONAL SUPPORT

This study provides an explanation of terrorism by examining interactions between the terrorist group with a minority as a potential pool of recruits and the government supported by a majority. A hawkish deterrence policy makes it more risky for terrorists to launch attacks, but heightens the anti-government feeling of the terrorist group. In addition, the payoff for the government depends not only on the payoff loss associated with the level of terrorism, but also on the political payoff from the action itself of adopting a hawk policy due to its politicians' vested interests. We first show that whether the deterrence policy should be 'hawk to 'dove is closely dependent on the relationships among the risk associated with terrorism, the anti-government feeling of the terrorist group, and the political payoff for the government. This study then introduces transnational support enhancing the capability of a terrorist group to intensify its activity and shows that the emergence of transnational support may cause the government to reform its deterrence policy from 'dove' toward 'hawk,' with terrorism intensified in the society.Terrorism, Deterrence policy, Transnational support,

Dutch outcome in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy (DO-IT) : Registry design and baseline characteristics of a prospective observational cohort study to predict appropriate indication for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator

Background Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) are widely used for the prevention of sudden cardiac death. At present, both clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of ICD therapy in primary prevention patients are topics of discussion, as only a minority of these patients will eventually receive appropriate ICD therapy. Methods/design The DO-IT Registry is a nationwide prospective cohort with a target enrolment of 1,500 primary prevention ICD patients with reduced left ventricular function in a setting of structural heart disease. The primary outcome measures are death and appropriate ICD therapy for ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Secondary outcome measures are inappropriate ICD therapy, death of any cause, hospitalisation for ICD related complications and for cardiovascular reasons. As of December 2016, data on demographic, clinical, and ICD characteristics of 1,468 patients have been collected. Follow-up will continue up to 24 months after inclusion of the last patient. During follow-up, clinical and ICD data are collected based on the normal follow-up of these patients, assuming ICD interrogations take place every six months and clinical follow-up is once a year. At baseline, the mean age was 66 (standard deviation [SD] 10) years and 27% were women. Conclusion The DO-IT Registry represents a real-world nationwide cohort of patients receiving ICDs for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death with reduced left ventricular function in a setting of structural heart disease. The registry investigates the efficacy of the current practice and aims to develop prediction rules to identify subgroups who will not (sufficiently) benefit from ICD implantation and to provide results regarding costs and budget impact of targeted supply of primary preventions ICDs

Development and external validation of prediction models to predict implantable cardioverter-defibrillator efficacy in primary prevention of sudden cardiac death

AIMS: This study was performed to develop and externally validate prediction models for appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shock and mortality to identify subgroups with insufficient benefit from ICD implantation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited patients scheduled for primary prevention ICD implantation and reduced left ventricular function. Bootstrapping-based Cox proportional hazards and Fine and Gray competing risk models with likely candidate predictors were developed for all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shock, respectively. Between 2014 and 2018, we included 1441 consecutive patients in the development and 1450 patients in the validation cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.4 (IQR 2.1-2.8) years, 109 (7.6%) patients received appropriate ICD shock and 193 (13.4%) died in the development cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.7 (IQR 2.0-3.4) years, 105 (7.2%) received appropriate ICD shock and 223 (15.4%) died in the validation cohort. Selected predictors of appropriate ICD shock were gender, NSVT, ACE/ARB use, atrial fibrillation history, Aldosterone-antagonist use, Digoxin use, eGFR, (N)OAC use, and peripheral vascular disease. Selected predictors of all-cause mortality were age, diuretic use, sodium, NT-pro-BNP, and ACE/ARB use. C-statistic was 0.61 and 0.60 at respectively internal and external validation for appropriate ICD shock and 0.74 at both internal and external validation for mortality. CONCLUSION: Although this cohort study was specifically designed to develop prediction models, risk stratification still remains challenging and no large group with insufficient benefit of ICD implantation was found. However, the prediction models have some clinical utility as we present several scenarios where ICD implantation might be postponed

Development and external validation of prediction models to predict implantable cardioverter-defibrillator efficacy in primary prevention of sudden cardiac death

Aims This study was performed to develop and externally validate prediction models for appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shock and mortality to identify subgroups with insufficient benefit from ICD implantation. Methods and results We recruited patients scheduled for primary prevention ICD implantation and reduced left ventricular function. Bootstrapping-based Cox proportional hazards and Fine and Gray competing risk models with likely candidate predictors were developed for all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shock, respectively. Between 2014 and 2018, we included 1441 consecutive patients in the development and 1450 patients in the validation cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.4 (IQR 2.1–2.8) years, 109 (7.6%) patients received appropriate ICD shock and 193 (13.4%) died in the development cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.7 (IQR 2.0–3.4) years, 105 (7.2%) received appropriate ICD shock and 223 (15.4%) died in the validation cohort. Selected predictors of appropriate ICD shock were gender, NSVT, ACE/ARB use, atrial fibrillation history, Aldosterone-antagonist use, Digoxin use, eGFR, (N)OAC use, and peripheral vascular disease. Selected predictors of all-cause mortality were age, diuretic use, sodium, NT-pro-BNP, and ACE/ARB use. C-statistic was 0.61 and 0.60 at respectively internal and external validation for appropriate ICD shock and 0.74 at both internal and external validation for mortality. Conclusion Although this cohort study was specifically designed to develop prediction models, risk stratification still remains challenging and no large group with insufficient benefit of ICD implantation was found. However, the prediction models have some clinical utility as we present several scenarios where ICD implantation might be postponed