Engaging Multiple Actors in Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Project Appraisal: An Application of MAMCA to the Case of HS2 High-Speed Rail

The most widespread approach to transport appraisal is to combine cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with environmental assessments and public consultations. However, large-scale transport projects such as the HS2 high-speed rail system in the UK seem to have pushed this approach beyond its limits, leading to broad discontent with the appraisal process. There is a need both to develop new methods capable of integrating a wide range of perspectives in a systematic manner and to test these for large-scale projects. Multicriteria analysis (MCA) has proven useful in supporting transport decision-making by including a broader set of criteria in the appraisal process. Multiactor multicriteria analysis (MAMCA) has extended this approach to include multiple actors and stakeholders in the judgment and decision-making process. This paper builds on the MAMCA method and demonstrates its practicability and usability by applying it to the case of HS2. The purpose of this paper is not to reach a definitive conclusion on the desirability of various project options, but to complement existing transport appraisal methods by making different perspectives explicit. For example, the results for this case show contrasting views for different groups of transport professionals: a favorable assessment of HS2 among transport planners employed in government, but an unfavorable assessment among transport researchers with a background in sustainability. In terms of contribution to the development of data collection methods, this research demonstrates the usefulness of conducting semistructured interviews in conjunction with an online questionnaire for the assessment and weighting process within MCA. Because MCA results are expressed in terms of relative desirability of projects, the approach also effectively systematizes the inclusion and assessment of multiple options. Overall, the proposed method enhances the capacity to analyze conflicting views in large-scale transport project appraisal processes

Giving current and future generations a real voice: a practical method for constructing sustainability viewpoints in transport appraisal

Decisions to invest in large-scale transport projects typically extend beyond traditional costbenefit analysis. Multi-criteria analysis methods such as multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) have been proposed to assess wider economic effects and long-term environmental impacts from various stakeholder perspectives. However, there is no standard practice for appraising transport projects against sustainable development objectives. In order to give future generations a voice in decisions that will impact them, this paper extends the MAMCA methodology to make various actors and a “sustainability viewpoint” explicit. A dual-approach method for constructing sustainability viewpoints in transport appraisal is proposed. The method juxtaposes an expert-based approach with a principle-based approach. In the former, sustainability experts are asked to prioritise criteria for project assessment. In the latter, criteria weights are calculated based on sustainability theory (“strong” and “weak” sustainability). Together, these viewpoints are intended to inform decision-making. The appraisal of HS2 Phase I, a high-speed rail project in the UK, is used to demonstrate the proposed method. It is found that all three variants of the sustainability viewpoint result in project preferences that are similar to each other, but different from those of other transport professionals. The paper concludes by arguing for the explicit inclusion and triangulation of sustainability viewpoints in transport appraisal on a multi-actor basis. One practical recommendation from the MAMCA process is the need to hire more transport planners with sustainability experience into government planning agencies

The main support mechanisms to finance renewable energy development

Considering that the major part of greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide, there is a global concern aimed at reducing carbon emissions. Additionally, major consumer countries are looking for alternative sources of energy to avoid the impact of higher fossil fuel prices and political instability in the major energy supplying countries. In this regard, different policies could be applied to reduce carbon emissions, such as enhancing renewable energy deployment and encouraging technological innovation and creation of green jobs. There are three main support mechanisms employed by governments to finance renewable energy development programs: feed-in-tariffs, tax incentives, and tradable green certificates. Considering that many of the promising technologies to deploy renewable energy require investment in small-scale energy production systems, these mechanisms could be used to enhance renewable energy development at the desired scale. Employing a carbon emission tax or emission trading mechanism could be considered ideal policies to mitigate emissions at the lowest cost. The comparison of feed-in-tariffs and renewable portfolio standard policies showed that the former is good when a policy to develop renewable energy sources with a low level of risk for investors is considered. However, the latter is an appropriate policy when a market view policy is applied by the government

FATORES DETERMINANTES PARA O AVANÇO DA ENERGIA EÓLICA NO ESTADO DO CEARÁ FRENTE AOS DESAFIOS DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

O trabalho identifica fatores determinantes para o avanço da geração da energia eólica frente aos desafios das mudanças climáticas. A pesquisa empregou métodos qualitativos para a obtenção de dados e configura-se como descritiva e exploratória. Foram realizadas entrevistas semiestruturadas com participantes do setor eólico, tomando o estado do Ceará como unidade de estudo. Os resultados indicam que as percepções e pressões dos stakeholders, as políticas públicas e os investimentos tecnológicos são determinantes para que a participação da energia eólica na matriz energética Brasileira seja ampliada. A perspectiva de um preço mais competitivo do KWh produzido é vital para o crescimento dos investimentos na implantação de parques eólicos. As empresas estão investindo na eficiência operacional dos aerogeradores e na adequação tecnológicas as características dos ventos do Nordeste Brasileiro. O diálogo com a comunidade revela-se também determinante para a viabilidade de implantação dos parques eólicos. A pesquisa aponta um cenário de incertezas para a segurança energética do país, no qual as empresas planejam suas estratégias com base nos benefícios oriundos de uma intensa participação do governo para alavancar este setor

Characterizing sex ratio distortion in the Collaborative Cross.

A deviation from the 1:1 sex ratio of males to females is a visible consequence of genetic conflict. In this project, we used statistical analysis of breeding records, fluorescent imaging of sperm, and analyses of whole genome sequences to study the prevalence and mechanisms of sex ratio distortion in Collaborative Cross (CC) mice. Six CC lines demonstrate consistent distortion at both the University of North Carolina (UNC) and the Jackson Laboratory (JAX). Of these strains, two harbor copy number variation of Sly, Slx, and Slx11 consistent with one known mode of sex ration distortion in mice, suggesting the existence of multiple distortion mechanisms

Essays in Social Status and Finance

The field of household finance has established a correlation between savings behavior and education, income, and race. This is partly explained by a high discount rate ultimately leading to low social status. Chapter 1 establishes causation in the opposite direction, with a relatively low social status position leading to a relatively high discount rate. The method used is experimental, with 154 subjects interacting in high- or low-status assignments. The subsequent change in intertemporal preference is significantly determined by the status assignment. The effect is strongest among the subjects who initially have higher discount rates and does not depend on the sex of the subject. This result implies low status consumers have higher discount rates and make worse financial choices because of their low social status, a finding that must be addressed in the regulation of consumer financial products.The evolution of uniquely exaggerated traits in humans is a topic that generates considerable interest and debate. In Chapter 2 I present an integrated theory that is based on the relationship between the individual and the group. This relationship involves diverse incentives---rewards and punishments---being applied by societies to their members, creating an evolutionary force. While the implications of direct incentives have been considered previously, I propose an indirect and potentially far more powerful incentive: social status. Through the awarding and withholding of social status, societies favor diverse psychological and morphological traits including intelligence, knowledge, norm-following, language ability, singing ability, and altruism towards one's group. Social status grants individuals proximate benefits in social interactions and ultimate benefits in inclusive fitness, at least in pre-industrial societies. Hence social status acts as a social incentive and is a component of a wider evolutionary force that I term prosocial selection. In discussing the social bases of prosocial selection, I highlight both the desire of group members to have incentive systems that benefit themselves, and group selection, here the selection of groups with fitter incentive systems. In discussing the psychological bases of prosocial selection, I highlight genetic predisposition, behavioral conditioning, awareness of intrinsic incentives, and awareness of social incentives. Finally, I discuss the altruism generated through prosocial selection, termed social altruism, and contrast it with established theories of altruism. As a coherent theory of the evolution of many human behaviors, prosocial selection requires a considered debate.Why are low-income households less likely to save than high-income households? In Chapter 3, I argue the cross-sectional relationship is explained by low status consumers being more impulsive. Formal tests using the Survey of Consumer Finances support this Status and Impulsiveness Hypothesis, while the Permanent Income Hypothesis and the Life Cycle Hypothesis are not supported. A decomposition of income allows me to determine the relative contributions of the different hypotheses towards the Income-Savings relationship: the SIH explains 85%; the PIH 14%; and the LCH 1%

Practitioner Perspectives Matter: Public Policy and Private Investment in the U.S. Electric Power Sector

This dissertation examines the influence of attitudes, beliefs, and preferences of energy industry practitioners on investment decision-making with regard to fuel choice for new electric power plants. The conclusions are based on in-depth interviews and an extensive online survey I conducted of 600-800 energy professionals in the U.S. power sector.Chapter 1 analyzes the impact of policy uncertainty on investment decision-making in renewable energy, using the federal production tax credit (PTC) and wind energy investment as an example. It is generally understood that the pattern of repeated expiration and short-term renewal of the PTC causes a boom-bust cycle in wind power plant investment in the U.S. This on-off pattern is detrimental to the wind industry, since ramp-up and ramp-down costs are high, and players are deterred from making long-term investments.The widely held belief that the severe downturn in investment during "off" years implies that wind power is unviable without the PTC turns out to be unsubstantiated: this chapter demonstrates that it is not the absence of the PTC that causes the investment downturn during "off" years, but rather the uncertainty over its return. Specifically, it is the dynamic of power purchase agreement negotiations in the face of PTC renewal uncertainty that drives investment volatility. This suggests that reducing regulatory uncertainty is a crucial component of effective renewable energy policy. The PTC as currently structured is not the only means, existing or potential, for encouraging wind power investment. Using data from my survey, various alternative policy incentives are considered and compared in terms of their perceived reliability for supporting long-term investment.Chapter 2 introduces the concept of expected payment of carbon as a factor in investment decision-making. The notion of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under potential climate change policy) is usually incorporated into investment decision-making by including a cost of carbon in the budget analysis. Most existing literature uses the expected price of carbon as a proxy for this cost, where expected price is a weighted average of various scenarios, often comparing policy proposals and representing either the price of traded permits or level of carbon tax, depending on the type of policy. The literature focuses on the minimum price of carbon required to influence power plant investment decisions.In contrast, this chapter introduces expected payment as a more accurate measure of carbon cost as it is perceived by industry practitioners. The expected payment of carbon is the expected price of carbon times the probability that this cost would actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the 2005-2006 surge of activity in coal-fired power plant development and the subsequent decline in that interest.The energy industry has been slow to move away from fossil fuels and towards renewable resources. In chapter 3 I find evidence for a cognitive bias that plays a role in this momentum. Energy executives' expectations of future energy prices are strongly correlated with their own preferences, which I document for the case of natural gas prices. This is an example of wishful expectations, a form of overconfidence in which people are excessively optimistic over uncontrollable future outcomes. This implies energy executives with strong exposure to fossil fuels are excessively optimistic on future prices and so continue to invest despite the presence of superior alternatives

Developing Assessment Criteria for Sustainable Transport Appraisal

Defining a clear, comprehensive, and non-overlapping set of assessment criteria is a crucial step in multi-criteria analysis processes. Although criteria are typically developed based on planning objectives, there currently exists no standard procedure for conducting this exercise when both transportation and wider sustainable development goals need to be considered jointly. Based on research applying the multi-actor multi-criteria analysis approach to the case of a high-speed rail project in the UK, this paper presents a framework and a replicable stakeholder involvement process for selecting, defining, and naming assessment criteria to be used in sustainable transport appraisal (STA). The framework consists of a set of systematic guidelines and considerations for producing a coherent list that addresses known cognitive biases and can be understood by a broad range of stakeholders. A further practicable outcome of the research is a comprehensive list, developed using this framework, of 28 transport assessment criteria encompassing direct project impacts, indirect societal impacts, and environmental impacts. This list can serve as a starting point for planners wishing to conduct MCA-based STA. One key take-away from this research is the emphasis on an inclusive, interactive, and iterative approach for defining sustainable transport assessment criteria