Which Industries Are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?

The negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, known as the Beveridge curve, has been relatively stable in the U.S. over the last decade. Since the summer of 2009, in spite of firms reporting more job openings, the U.S. unemployment rate has not declined in line with the Beveridge curve. We decompose the recent deviation from the Beveridge curve into different parts using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). We find that most of the current deviation from the Beveridge curve can be attributed to a shortfall in hires per vacancy. This shortfall is broad-based across all industries and is particularly pronounced in construction, transportation, trade, and utilities, and leisure and hospitality. Construction alone accounts for more than half of the Beveridge curve gap

Job Vacancies in Colombia : 1976-2012

Based on the counting of Help-wanted advertisements in print newspapers, we present national vacancy indexes and vacancy rates for Colombia. These series will allow tackling a myriad of questions related to the functioning of the labor markets in emerging economies, where such datasets were not available until now.A partir del conteo de avisos clasificados de empleo en los principales periódicos se construye un índice de vacantes y una tasa de vacantes para Colombia. Este es el primer intento de construir series con representatividad nacional y de tal extensión n

Population Aging, Migration Spillovers, and the Decline in Interstate Migration

Interstate migration in the United States has declined by 50 percent since the mid-1980s. This paper studies the role of the aging population in this long-run decline. We argue that demographic changes trigger a general equilibrium effect in the labor market, which affects the migration rate of all workers. We document that an increase in the share of middle-aged workers (those ages 40 to 60) in the working-age population in one state causes a large fall in the migration rate of all workers in that state, regardless of their age. To understand this finding, we develop an equilibrium search model of many locations populated by workers whose moving costs differ. Firms prefer hiring local workers with high moving costs as they command lower wages due to their lower outside option. An increase in the share of middle-aged workers causes firms to recruit more from the local labor market instead of hiring from other locations, which increases the local job-finding rate and reduces everyon's migration rate ("migration spillovers"). Our model reproduces remarkably well several cross-sectional facts between population flows and the age structure of the labor force. Our quantitative analysis suggests that population aging accounts for about half of the observed decline, of which 75 percent is attributable to the general equilibrium effect

Employment, Hours and Optimal Monetary Policy

We characterize optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian search-and-matching model where multiple-worker firms satisfy demand in the short run by adjusting hours per worker. Imperfect product market competition and search frictions reduce steady state hours per worker below the efficient level. Bargaining results in a convex 'wage curve' linking wages to hours. Since the steady-state real marginal wage is low, wages respond little to hours. As a result, firms overuse the hours margin at the expense of hiring, which makes hours too volatile. The Ramsey planner uses inflation as a instrument to dampen inefficient hours fluctuations

Austerity and Private Debt

This study provides empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness. In particular, fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private debt states. Contrary, fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low. These results are robust to alternative definitions of private debt overhang, the composition of fiscal consolidations and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang. I show that deterioration in household balance sheets is important to understand private debt-dependent effects of austerity

Disaggregating the Matching Function

The aggregate matching (hiring) function relates gross hires to labor market tightness. Decompositions of aggregate hires show how the hiring process differs across different groups of workers and of firms. Decompositions include employment status in the previous month, age, gender and education. Another separates hiring between part-time and full-time jobs, which show different patterns in the current recovery. Shift-share analyses are done based on industry, firm size and occupation to show what part of the residual of the aggregate hiring function can be explained by the composition of vacancies. The hiring process appears to shift as a recovery starts, coinciding with shifts in the Beveridge curve. The paper also discusses some issues in the modeling of the labor market

Data for: Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs

Abstract of associated article: This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable

The Beveridge Curve Across US States: New Insights From a Pairwise Approach

This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the unemployment–vacancy rate relationship at state-level within a pairwise environment in which the unemployment rate in one state is inversely related to the vacancy rate in another. We find that Beveridge curve shifting, or matching efficiency, is driven by factors that include distance between states, the labour force participation rate, homeownership and the relative affordability of housing between states. A pairwise recursive analysis points to a decrease in matching efficiency in the period that followed the Great Recession. © 2019 The Department of Economics, University of Oxford and John Wiley and Sons Lt

Modelling benchmark of a laboratory test on hydro-mechanical behavior of bentonite

International audienceThe SEALEX experiment, performed in the Tournemire Underground Research Laboratory, run by IRSN in France, aims at identifying conditions that will affect the performance of swelling clay-based sealing systems. Current experiments focus on a 70/30 MX80 bentonite-sand mixture compacted at dry densities between 1.67 Mg/m3 and 1.97 Mg/m3. Prior to the in-situ tests, a 1/10th scale mock-up has been tested and proposed as modelling benchmark, in the framework of the international project DECOVALEX. Three independent research teams have worked towards modelling the three phases of this experiment, using different codes and input parameters. In the paper, blind predictions and model calibrations of the three phases are compared to the experimental measurements and discussed