Network reinforcement requirements for Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK) - and possible solutions for this

A novel multi-objective transmission expansion planning (MOTEP) tool has been developed to analyse, on a comprehensive geographical scale, the reinforcements required to a base case electrical transmission network following application of a chosen future energy scenario, and to generate optimal network expansion plans, designed to alleviate these areas of strain, for a range of crucial network planning objectives. Here, we report the application of the MOTEP tool to a base case predicted 2014 GB transmission network (thereby including already planned reinforcements such as the Beauly to Denny line) under heavy strain from three 2020 energy scenarios developed by the two-region UK MARKAL energy system model. Reinforcement requirements for Scotland and the RUK beyond 2014, along with optimal network expansion plan options, are examined

A comparison between the cost effectiveness of CCTV and improved street lighting as a means of crime reduction

The effectiveness of CCTV and improved street lighting has been studied extensively in terms of their potential for reducing the number of crimes in a certain area. However, this does not take into account the cost of the interventions or the savings due to crime reduction. This paper presents a model, which takes the form of a cellular automaton to simulate the implementation of improved street lighting and CCTV cameras using a range of strategies. This permits an exploration of simulated options to find which is most cost effective and what the best strategy for implementation is. The results indicate that there are few situations where CCTV is more cost effective than improved street lighting as a way of reducing street crime. In addition, it is shown that the strategy of targeting locations with the highest crime rates, “hot spots‟, has the greatest potential for maximising the cost effectiveness of interventions

A multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning approach for analysing future energy scenarios in the GB network

A multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning framework has been designed to evaluate the effect of applying a future energy scenario to the Great Britain transmission network. This is achieved by examining the identified nondominated set of transmission reinforcement plans, which alleviate thermal capacity constraints, for the multi-criteria problem of five objectives: investment cost, annual constraint cost saving, annual incremental operation and maintenance cost, outage cost and annual line loss saving. The framework is flexible and utilises a systematic algorithm to generate reinforcement plans and alter the associated reinforcements should they exacerbate thermal constraints; hence a pre-determined set of reinforcements is not required to evaluate a scenario. The reinforcements considered are line addition (single-circuit and double-circuit) and line upgrading through reconductoring. The Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 is utilised to explore varying locations, configurations and capacities of network reinforcement. The solutions produced achieve similar cost savings to solutions created by the transmission network owners, showing the suitability of the approach to provide a useful trade-off analysis of the objectives and to assess the network related thermal and economic impact of future energy scenarios. Here the framework is applied to the 2020 generation mix of the Gone Green scenario developed by National Grid

Increasing renewable penetration on islanded networks through active network management : a case study from Shetland

The drive to reduce reliance on fossil fuel generation in meeting power system demand is encouraging network operators to develop novel methods of making greater use of available network capacity whilst maintaining stability and security. Challenges relating to network stability are particularly acute on islanded networks. The Northern Isles New Energy Solutions (NINES) project is implementing novel techniques for managing the power network on the Shetland Islands in the UK. Active Network Management is used to monitor and control the network and new wind generation in real time, and flexible demand is scheduled to minimise the use of conventional generation by reducing wind curtailment and minimising system losses. The flexible demand devices deployed also have the ability to respond to frequency therefore supporting system stability. This paper presents the development of two novel modelling techniques used in the design and deployment of NINES – an ‘envelope of stability wind generation’ and the use of Dynamic Optimal Power Flow to schedule flexible demand. A case study is presented which shows that an ANM scheme managing flexible demand has the potential to increase wind capacity connected on Shetland from the existing 4MW to 16.1MW. The management of domestic demand flexibility is shown to contribute up to 6.5GWh towards the reduction in conventional generation or up to 16.6GWh if domestic demand provides frequency response

A multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning approach for analysing future energy scenarios in the GB network

Due to increasing worldwide environmental concern, the United Kingdom (UK) government, under the Climate Change Act (2008), has set a target of at least an 80% reduction in the net UK carbon account, from baseline 1990 levels, by 2050. Recently there has been a rise in the number of low-carbon policy related studies, creating a growing number of national energy scenarios, some of which achieve the emission targets for 2050. A key aspect of evaluating the technical and economic impact of these energy scenarios is in assessing the associated effect on the electrical transmission network. As a result of a new scenario-related generation background, network limitations are likely to occur on the system. By creating a transmission reinforcement plan to alleviate these network issues, a conclusion can be made as to the economic impact of a future scenario to the electrical transmission network; thereby aiding the overall assessment of the scenario. However, by its nature the transmission planning problem is multi-objective with multiple economic conflicts. For a reinforcement designed for the main interconnected transmission system to gain economic approval from the network regulator, the reinforcement needs to alleviate annual network congestion such that the cost savings associated are greater than the capital expenditure and maintenance costs of the project. Further, this reinforcement will need to be established with minimal outages to existing network assets. This thesis proposes a flexible framework to evaluate the thermal and economic effect of applying a future energy scenario to the GB network. This is achieved through locating an optimal set of transmission reinforcement plans for the multi-criteria problem outlined above. The framework utilises a novel systematic algorithm to generate individual reinforcements and overall reinforcement plans for a large-scale multi-voltage network. The systematic algorithm can alter the associated reinforcements should they exacerbate thermal constraints. Specific reinforcements are therefore created for the scenario, and the framework can therefore be used to evaluate a wide range of future scenarios.;The framework is designed to cater for three variations in reinforcement characteristic; location, configuration (line upgrading, single-circuit and double-circuit addition) and thermal capacity. The new framework carries out a thorough exploration of each characteristic and uses a proven multi-objective meta-heuristic technique to perform the optimisation, which can handle complex multi-criteria problems such as transmission network planning effectively. The reinforcement plans generated are assessed against a stochastic, seasonal evaluation of annual network congestion, which reflects the uncertainty of annual generation output and the impact of planned network outages on annual system constraints. Although meta-heuristic techniques have been successfully applied to solve a variant of the multi-objective transmission planning problem proposed in this thesis, these approaches often simplified the reinforcement characteristics considered and the impact of these reinforcements on the objectives involved, and were often tested against small-scale simplified network backgrounds. From the frameworks output, a verdict on the economic impact of a future scenario to the electrical transmission network can be made which considers the different perspectives and complexities of the transmission planning problem. By comparing verdicts, a scenario can be located that is the best route forward, from the perspective of the electrical transmission network, to economically meet governmental emission targets. Hence the approach proposed can be used to improve current understanding on the economic impact of a wide range of penetrations in renewable and conventional generation to the network, to guide governmental energy policy and transmission network owner investment. Results from several scenario studies show that the framework is valuable for use in the evaluation of a UK energy scenario which envisions the continuation of a centralised power system.Due to increasing worldwide environmental concern, the United Kingdom (UK) government, under the Climate Change Act (2008), has set a target of at least an 80% reduction in the net UK carbon account, from baseline 1990 levels, by 2050. Recently there has been a rise in the number of low-carbon policy related studies, creating a growing number of national energy scenarios, some of which achieve the emission targets for 2050. A key aspect of evaluating the technical and economic impact of these energy scenarios is in assessing the associated effect on the electrical transmission network. As a result of a new scenario-related generation background, network limitations are likely to occur on the system. By creating a transmission reinforcement plan to alleviate these network issues, a conclusion can be made as to the economic impact of a future scenario to the electrical transmission network; thereby aiding the overall assessment of the scenario. However, by its nature the transmission planning problem is multi-objective with multiple economic conflicts. For a reinforcement designed for the main interconnected transmission system to gain economic approval from the network regulator, the reinforcement needs to alleviate annual network congestion such that the cost savings associated are greater than the capital expenditure and maintenance costs of the project. Further, this reinforcement will need to be established with minimal outages to existing network assets. This thesis proposes a flexible framework to evaluate the thermal and economic effect of applying a future energy scenario to the GB network. This is achieved through locating an optimal set of transmission reinforcement plans for the multi-criteria problem outlined above. The framework utilises a novel systematic algorithm to generate individual reinforcements and overall reinforcement plans for a large-scale multi-voltage network. The systematic algorithm can alter the associated reinforcements should they exacerbate thermal constraints. Specific reinforcements are therefore created for the scenario, and the framework can therefore be used to evaluate a wide range of future scenarios.;The framework is designed to cater for three variations in reinforcement characteristic; location, configuration (line upgrading, single-circuit and double-circuit addition) and thermal capacity. The new framework carries out a thorough exploration of each characteristic and uses a proven multi-objective meta-heuristic technique to perform the optimisation, which can handle complex multi-criteria problems such as transmission network planning effectively. The reinforcement plans generated are assessed against a stochastic, seasonal evaluation of annual network congestion, which reflects the uncertainty of annual generation output and the impact of planned network outages on annual system constraints. Although meta-heuristic techniques have been successfully applied to solve a variant of the multi-objective transmission planning problem proposed in this thesis, these approaches often simplified the reinforcement characteristics considered and the impact of these reinforcements on the objectives involved, and were often tested against small-scale simplified network backgrounds. From the frameworks output, a verdict on the economic impact of a future scenario to the electrical transmission network can be made which considers the different perspectives and complexities of the transmission planning problem. By comparing verdicts, a scenario can be located that is the best route forward, from the perspective of the electrical transmission network, to economically meet governmental emission targets. Hence the approach proposed can be used to improve current understanding on the economic impact of a wide range of penetrations in renewable and conventional generation to the network, to guide governmental energy policy and transmission network owner investment. Results from several scenario studies show that the framework is valuable for use in the evaluation of a UK energy scenario which envisions the continuation of a centralised power system

A multi-objective assessment of the future potential of the Shetland Isles active network management scheme

The Active Network Management (ANM) scheme to be employed on Shetland is a key component of the Northern Isles New Energy Solutions (NINES) concept. The NINES project integrates energy storage, Domestic Demand Side Management (DDSM) and renewable generation onto an islanded grid. Previous work has presented the design of the ANM scheme to manage the various components within constraints and to maintain system stability. This paper focuses on defining the future potential of Shetland’s ANM scheme to improve network access for onshore wind generation and reduce the island’s reliance on fossil fuel generation. A Multi- Objective System Development Optimisation (MOSDO) model has been developed to carry out this study. The model creates future system configurations with varying penetrations and locations of DDSM, energy storage and onshore wind generation. The most desirable system configurations, according to a multi-objective analysis, are investigated to identify the potential operational and economic impacts of the ANM scheme and the individual components

Modelling generation and infrastructure requirements for transition pathways

With national targets to reduce carbon emissions enforced by international accords, the UK's energy sector will move towards its low carbon future through political, societal and technological drivers. Three Transition Pathway narratives have been developed to describe three different evolutions of the UK energy sector out to 2050. This paper details two tools that have been combined to assess the robustness and rationale of these three energy futures. The future energy scenario assessment (FESA) tool is used to develop pathway specific large-scale generation mixes that meet expected demands on both a yearly and hourly time step basis. The multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning (MOTRiP) tool is used to generate a set of electrical network plans for the assessment of expected electrical infrastructure requirements, following the application of the future generation mixes to the current GB electrical transmission network. The results, detailed throughout this paper, demonstrate that the combination of FESA's detailed temporal analysis and MOTRiP's comprehensive geographical analysis provides a high-quality holistic examination of the Transition Pathways scenarios, assessing the need for national infrastructure reinforcements with the changing demand and generation patterns

Modelling and delivery of an active network management scheme for the Northern Isles new energy solutions project

The Northern Isles New Energy Solutions (NINES) concept is an extension to existing forms of Active Network Management (ANM) and a multi-faceted demonstration of the future “smart grid”. The NINES project is challenged with accommodating increased levels of renewable generation in an area where there are abundant renewable resources. However, the existing distribution network is electrically islanded and needs to operate within stringent constraints to maintain system stability. This paper discusses and presents modelling approaches to identify rule formats and parameters that can be incorporated within an ANM scheme that will facilitate these connections and maintain system stability. The paper goes on to discuss the use of these modelling outputs as criteria to inform the development of the future Shetland system