Complex coupled system dynamics and the global warming policy problem

A Public Domain, once a velvet carpet of rich buffalo-grass and grama, now an illimitable waste of rattlesnake-bush and tumbleweed, too impoverished to be accepted as a gift by the states within which it lies. Why? Because the ecology of this Southwest happened to be set on a hair trigger.—Aldo Leopold. 1933. The Conservation Ethic. Journal of Forestry 33: 636–637

Nine-point difference solutions for Poisson's equation

AbstractIt is shown that “stencils” exist for the sixth order solution of Poisson's equation by use of a nine-point difference approximation

Nonlinear bubbles in Chinese Stock Markets in the 1990s

A time series of the Shanghai stock index in China for the 1990s is studied for the possible existence of nonlinear speculative bubbles. Three alternative specifications of fundamentals are estimated using VAR models of domestic and international variables. These are subjected to regime switching tests and rescaled range analysis tests. Nulls of no persistence were mostly rejected, suggesting the strong possibility of bubbles. Nonlinearities beyond ARCH effects using the BDS test could not be rejected. The paper also discusses the special circumstances of the stock market in an emerging transition economy.

Complex Dynamics of Macroeconomic Collapse and Its Aftermath in Transition Economies

The economic transition from planned command socialism to market capitalism has been unpredictable and complicated with a variety of divergent paths and outcomes emerging from the breakup and collapse of the former Soviet-led Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) bloc. Although social, political, and cultural factors played important roles in the actual collapse, an underlying factor was increasing economic stagnation, especially in the USSR. This led to reform efforts that led to actual economic decline, the breakup of the bloc, and systemic collapse [Rosser and Rosser, 199Va]. The unexpected and dramatically sudden nature of this collapse led Sargent [1993] to doubt the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper we seek to partially explicate the varieties of these episodes of discontinuity and turbulence by considering some forms of complex nonlinear dynamics as applied to the stages of the systemic transition process.Macroeconomics; Transitional Economies

The Complexity Era in Economics

This article argues that the neoclassical era in economics has ended and is being replaced by a new era. What best characterizes the new era is its acceptance that the economy is complex, and thus that it might be called the complexity era. The complexity era has not arrived through a revolution. Instead, it has evolved out of the many strains of neoclassical work, along with work done by less orthodox mainstream and heterodox economists. It is only in its beginning stages. The article discusses the work that is forming the foundation of the complexity era, and how that work will likely change the way in which we understand economic phenomena and the economics profession.

Live and Dead Issues in the Methodology of Economics

We attempt to clarify divisions made by us in previous work (Colander et al., 2004a,b) between “orthodox, mainstream, and heterodox” in economics, following very useful remarks in Dequech (2007), whom we thank. We also provide specific advice for heterodox economists, namely: worry less about methodology, focus on being economists first and heterodox economists second, and prepare ideas to leave the incubator of heterodoxy to enter the mainstream economic debate.

Islamic and Neo-Confucian Perspectives on the New Traditional Economy

This paper argues that the new traditional economy is an emerging form important both ideologically and in practice in the world economy today. It is characterized by an effort to embed economic practices within a traditional socio-religious structure while simultaneously seeking modern technology and high incomes. The examples of the Islamic economic system and the neo-Confucian economic system are considered in more detail, with the former seen as more significant ideologically and the latter as more important practically.Economic Systems