Productivity, International Trade and Reference Area Interactions in Shift-Share Analysis: Some Operational Notes

These notes discuss and illustrate two new extensions of shift-share analysis: the productivity and output model and the international trade model. We also review a general limitation of these and other shift-share-type models with respect to the interaction between reference area and the region. A possible solution to this limitation is presented. The new extensions provide better insights about the regional economy but that benefit occurs at a cost. The cost is careful consideration and compensation where relatively large regions or sectors are central to the shift-share assessment. The extensions are important in addressing earlier problems with the shift-share approach. Our solution to shift-share limitation on reference area interaction is vital if the method is to be extended to these multiple environments. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

Differential Employment Patterns for Citizens and Non-Citizens in Science and Engineering in the United States: Minting and Competitive Effects

The consequences of the heavy inflow of foreign talent for U.S. scientists and engineers over the period 1973-1997 are examined using data from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients. Of particular interest is whether non-citizens trained in the United States have displaced citizens from jobs in science and engineering (S&E). Using a novel adaptation of the shift-share technique, it is shown that citizen S&E doctorates have fewer jobs in S&E and fewer academic jobs than their non-citizen counterparts for two reasons: the citizen doctoral population has experienced slower growth than the non-citizen doctoral population, and citizen S&E doctorates have been displaced. Whether the displacement observed was a voluntary response of citizens to the lure of better opportunities elsewhere or an involuntary response indicative of having been pushed out by foreign talent remains to be determined. Copyright 2004 Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky..