Development and demonstration of a state model for the estimation of incidence of partly undetected chronic diseases

Background Estimation of incidence of the state of undiagnosed chronic disease provides a crucial missing link for the monitoring of chronic disease epidemics and determining the degree to which changes in prevalence are affected or biased by detection. Methods We developed a four-part compartment model for undiagnosed cases of irreversible chronic diseases with a preclinical state that precedes the diagnosis. Applicability of the model is tested in a simulation study of a hypothetical chronic disease and using diabetes data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Results A two dimensional system of partial differential equations forms the basis for estimating incidence of the undiagnosed and diagnosed disease states from the prevalence of the associated states. In the simulation study we reach very good agreement between the estimates and the true values. Application to the HRS data demonstrates practical relevance of the methods. Discussion We have demonstrated the applicability of the modeling framework in a simulation study and in the analysis of the Health and Retirement Study. The model provides insight into the epidemiology of undiagnosed chronic diseases

Primary care strategies to improve childhood immunisation uptake in developed countries: systematic review

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic review of strategies to optimize immunisation uptake within preschool children in developed countries. DESIGN: Systematic review. SETTING: Developed countries PARTICIPANTS: Preschool children who were due, or overdue, one or more of their routine primary immunisations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Increase in the proportion of the target population up to date with standard recommended universal vaccinations. RESULTS: Forty-six studies were included for analysis, published between 1980 and 2009. Twenty-six studies were randomized controlled trials, 11 were before and after trials, and nine were controlled intervention trials. Parental reminders showed a statistically significant increase in immunisation rates in 34% of included intervention arms. These effects were reported with both generic and specific reminders and with all methods of reminders and recall. Strategies aimed at immunisation providers were also shown to improve immunisation rates with a median change in immunisation rates of 7% when reminders were used, 8% when educational programmes were used and 19% when feedback programmes were used. CONCLUSION: General practitioners are uniquely positioned to influence parental decisions on childhood immunisation. A variety of strategies studied in primary care settings have been shown to improve immunisation rates, including parental and healthcare provider reminders

Parents' perceived vulnerability and perceived control in preventing Meningococcal C infection: a large-scale interview study about vaccination

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Parents' reported ambivalence toward large-scale vaccination programs for childhood diseases may be related to their perception of the risks of side-effects or safety of vaccination and the risk of contracting the disease. The aim of this study is to evaluate parents' perceptions of their child's risk contracting a Meningococcal C infection and parents' perceived control in preventing infection in relation to their evaluation of the safety, effectiveness and usefulness of vaccination.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a large-scale interview study, a random sample of parents was interviewed after their children had received vaccination against Meningococcal C in a catch-up campaign. Questions were asked about the perceived relative vulnerability of their child contracting an infection, perceived control in preventing an infection, and parents' evaluation of the safety, usefulness and effectiveness of vaccination.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>61% of 2910 (N = 1763) parents who were approached participated. A higher perceived relative vulnerability of their own child contracting the disease was related to a more positive evaluation of the vaccination campaign, while a lower perceived vulnerability did not result in a more negative evaluation. A higher perceived control in being able to prevent an infection was, however, related to a more critical attitude toward the safety, usefulness and effectiveness of vaccination.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Perceived relative vulnerability contracting an infection and parents' perceived control in preventing an infection seem to influence parents' evaluation of the vaccination programme. Future studies should determine if, and under which circumstances, these perceptions also affect parents' vaccination behaviour and would be relevant to be taken into account when educating parents about vaccination.</p

Predictors of well child care adherence over time in a cohort of urban Medicaid-eligible infants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Changes in well child care (WCC) adherence over time have not previously been examined. Our objective is to describe adherence rates to WCC over time in a low-income urban population of infants 0-24 months of age, and to identify predictors of WCC adherence in this population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a secondary analysis of a cohort of Medicaid-eligible children followed from birth to 2 years between 2005 and 2008 with structured telephone surveys to assess maternal well-being, social support, and household and demographic information. For the 260 children attending 4 urban pediatric practices, WCC adherence was assessed based on visit data abstracted from electronic medical records. A random-intercept mixed effects logit model clustered on subject was used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>92% of the mothers were African-American, 27% had not finished high school, 87% were single, and 43% earned < $500/month; mean age was 23. WCC adherence decreased from 88% at 6 months to 47% (12 mo), 44% (18 mo), and 67% (24 mo). The difference across time periods was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Married (OR 1.71, p = 0.02) and primiparous (OR 1.89, p < 0.001) mothers had significantly greater odds of adherence, along with women who reported having been adherent to prenatal care visits (OR 1.49, p = 0.03) and those with the lowest household income (OR 1.40, p = 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Maternal education efforts should emphasize the importance of establishing WCC, especially for mothers of more than one child. Further studies using larger, more broadly defined populations are needed to confirm our findings that efforts to increase WCC adherence should be intensified after 6 months of age, particularly for children at higher risk.</p