Prognostic models for mortality after cardiac surgery in patients with infective endocarditis: a systematic review and aggregation of prediction models.

Background There are several prognostic models to estimate the risk of mortality after surgery for active infective endocarditis (IE). However, these models incorporate different predictors and their performance is uncertain. Objective We systematically reviewed and critically appraised all available prediction models of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing surgery for IE, and aggregated them into a meta-model. Data sources We searched Medline and EMBASE databases from inception to June 2020. Study eligibility criteria We included studies that developed or updated a prognostic model of postoperative mortality in patient with IE. Methods We assessed the risk of bias of the models using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) and we aggregated them into an aggregate meta-model based on stacked regressions and optimized it for a nationwide registry of IE patients. The meta-model performance was assessed using bootstrap validation methods and adjusted for optimism. Results We identified 11 prognostic models for postoperative mortality. Eight models had a high risk of bias. The meta-model included weighted predictors from the remaining three models (EndoSCORE, specific ES-I and specific ES-II), which were not rated as high risk of bias and provided full model equations. Additionally, two variables (age and infectious agent) that had been modelled differently across studies, were estimated based on the nationwide registry. The performance of the meta-model was better than the original three models, with the corresponding performance measures: C-statistics 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.82), calibration slope 0.98 (95% CI 0.86–1.13) and calibration-in-the-large –0.05 (95% CI –0.20 to 0.11). Conclusions The meta-model outperformed published models and showed a robust predictive capacity for predicting the individualized risk of postoperative mortality in patients with IE. Protocol registration PROSPERO (registration number CRD42020192602).pre-print270 K

Rotura iatrogénica de electrodos de marcapasos permanente en la realización de esternotomía media: presentación de un caso

La esternotomía media continúa siendo el gold-standart de abordaje quirúrgico en cirugía cardiaca. Aún realizada correctamente, laapertura media del esternón presenta complicaciones en el 1-5% de los casos que varían en su gravedad desde la infección de la heridaquirúrgica a la lesión de estructuras intratorácicas. En el presente estudio se describe un caso de rotura de electrodos de marcapasostras esternotomía media por retracción y fibrosis del tronco venoso braquiocefálico. Debido a la ausencia de artículos semejantes enla literatura y al extendido empleo de la esternotomía en pacientes portadores de marcapasos permanente, se pretende disminuirlas lesiones asociadas mediante la publicación de un infrecuente caso de lesión iatrogénica durante la apertura esternal, con escasosprecedentes en la literatura publicada hasta la fecha. MÉD.UIS. 2016;29(3):95-9.Palabras clave: Procedimientos quirúrgicos cardiacos. Marcapasos artificial. Esternotomía. Enfermedad iatrogénica

Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation in Mature T Cell and Natural Killer/T Neoplasias: A Registry Study from Spanish GETH/GELTAMO Centers

Despite advances in understanding the biology of mature T and natural killer (NK)/T cell neoplasia, current therapies, even the most innovative ones, are still far from ensuring its cure. The only treatment to date that has been shown to control aggressive T cell neoplasms in the long term is allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT). We aim to report the results of alloSCT for advanced mature T and NK/T neoplasias performed in centers from our national GELTAMO/GETH (Grupo Español de Linfoma y Trasplante de Médula Ósea/Grupo Español de Trasplante Hematopoyético y Terapia Celular) over the past 25 years. As a secondary objective, we analyzed the results of alloSCT from haploidentical donors. We performed a retrospective analysis of all patients who received an alloSCT in Spanish centers (n = 201) from September 1995 to August 2018. The 2-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were 65.5% and 58.2%, respectively. The univariate for OS and DFS showed statistically different hazard ratios for conditioning intensity, response pre-alloSCT, comorbidity index, donor/receptor cytomegalovirus status and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) pre-alloSCT, but only a better ECOG pre-alloSCT remained significant in the multivariate analysis. There was an increased incidence of relapse in those patients who did not develop chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and an increased risk of death in those developing moderate to severe acute GVHD. The 1-year nonrelapse mortality was 21.9% and was mainly due to GVHD (30%) and bacterial infections (17%). When comparing unrelated donors with haploidentical donors, we found similar results in terms of OS and DFS. There was, however, a reduction of acute GVHD in the haploidentical group (P = .04) and trend to a reduction of chronic GVHD. In conclusion, alloSCT is the only curative option for most aggressive T cell neoplasias. Haploidentical donors offer similar results to related donors in terms of survival with a reduction of acute GVHD

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Severe early onset preeclampsia: short and long term clinical, psychosocial and biochemical aspects

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy specific disorder commonly defined as de novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks gestational age. It occurs in approximately 3-5% of pregnancies and it is still a major cause of both foetal and maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide1. As extensive research has not yet elucidated the aetiology of preeclampsia, there are no rational preventive or therapeutic interventions available. The only rational treatment is delivery, which benefits the mother but is not in the interest of the foetus, if remote from term. Early onset preeclampsia (<32 weeks’ gestational age) occurs in less than 1% of pregnancies. It is, however often associated with maternal morbidity as the risk of progression to severe maternal disease is inversely related with gestational age at onset2. Resulting prematurity is therefore the main cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in patients with severe preeclampsia3. Although the discussion is ongoing, perinatal survival is suggested to be increased in patients with preterm preeclampsia by expectant, non-interventional management. This temporising treatment option to lengthen pregnancy includes the use of antihypertensive medication to control hypertension, magnesium sulphate to prevent eclampsia and corticosteroids to enhance foetal lung maturity4. With optimal maternal haemodynamic status and reassuring foetal condition this results on average in an extension of 2 weeks. Prolongation of these pregnancies is a great challenge for clinicians to balance between potential maternal risks on one the eve hand and possible foetal benefits on the other. Clinical controversies regarding prolongation of preterm preeclamptic pregnancies still exist – also taking into account that preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the Netherlands5 - a debate which is even more pronounced in very preterm pregnancies with questionable foetal viability6-9. Do maternal risks of prolongation of these very early pregnancies outweigh the chances of neonatal survival? Counselling of women with very early onset preeclampsia not only comprises of knowledge of the outcome of those particular pregnancies, but also knowledge of outcomes of future pregnancies of these women is of major clinical importance. This thesis opens with a review of the literature on identifiable risk factors of preeclampsia