TERMS-OF-TRADE FLUCTUATIONS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR EXCHANGE- RATE COORDINATION IN MERCOSUR

This paper presents the correlation between the annual fluctuations of the terms of trade of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. The period under analysis is 1980-2001 and the main findings are that the four countries have a high to moderate synchronization of their export prices, a moderate to low synchronization of their import prices, and a low synchronization of their terms of trade. The small positive correlation between the growth rates of the terms of trade of Brazil and Argentina (0.24) support exchange rate coordination between the two countries, provided that their bilateral real exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate temporarily to accommodate possible differences between the intensity of shocks across them. For instance, given an adverse shock to Brazil, both the Brazilian and Argentine real exchange rates against the rest of the world (domestic good per unit of foreign good) should increase to avoid a reduction, or smooth the variation, of their trade balances, but the Argentine currency should appreciate against the Brazilian currency in real terms because Argentina tends to be less affected by the shock. The observed correlations indicate that, through a joint and flexible managed float of their currencies, Argentina and Brazil may be able to share the benefits and costs of terms-of-trade shocks without imposing major macroeconomic disruptions on each other. In such an arrangement and also based on the observed correlations, Uruguay may either follow Argentina, when the terms-of-trade shock is more intense to Brazil, or do nothing, when the shock is more intense to Argentina. In contrast, Paraguay should follow Brazil, when the terms- of-trade shock is more intense to Argentina, or do nothing, when the shock is more intense to Brazil. Because of the low correlation between the terms-of-trade fluctuations of Brazil and Argentina, the best form of exchange-rate coordination for the near future seems to be a Mercosur version of the European Monetary System of 1979-98, that is, a wide interval of fluctuation for the regional currencies around a common and competitive real exchange rate against the rest of the world.Mercosur, Trade, Exchange-Rate Coordination

Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post-Keynesian approach

This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP) constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.structuralist macroeconomics, trade, growth, exchange rate, Brazil

TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS IN BRAZILIAN AND ARGENTINE TRADE FLOWS

This paper analyzes the trends and fluctuations of the price and real indexes of Brazilian and Argentine exports and imports in 1980-2002. The analysis uses quarterly data and obtains the trend and fluctuations by applying either the Hodrick-Prescott or the band-pass filter (with periodicity between 1.5 and 8 years) to the original series. The main statistical findings are that: (i) even though the fluctuations of the export and import prices of the two countries are highly correlated, their terms of trade are not because the export price of one country is also highly correlated with the import price of the other country; (ii) in both countries the fluctuations of real imports basically follow the fluctuations of real GDP; and (iii) fluctuations of Brazilian GDP and real imports are highly correlated and seem to lead fluctuations of Argentine exports. To obtain these results the paper analyzes the lead, lag and contemporaneous correlation between the series in question and applies the Granger causality test to investigate whether or not one variable helps to explain the other statistically. The statistical results for the fluctuations are robust for both filters. The trends are also basically the same independently of the filter used and, overall, they seem to converge in the late 1990s. The main policy implication is that exchange-rate coordination may be useful to compensate or smooth the adjustment of the two countries to terms-of-trade shocks, provided that the managed float is flexible enough to allow the bilateral real exchange rate to change according to which country is most affected by the shock. On the real side, synchronization of real GDP would lead to synchronization of real imports, whereas exchange-rate coordination may eliminate the swings of the bilateral real exchange rate between Brazil and Argentina, which is one of the sources of their desynchronized export fluctuations.Brazil, Argentina, Trade

A SIMPLE MODEL OF DEMAND-LED GROWTH AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION

This paper presents a one-sector demand-led model where capital and non-capital expenditures determine income growth and distribution. The basic idea is to build a simple dynamical accounting model for the growth rate of the capital stock, the ratio of non-capital expenditures to the capital stock, and the labor share of income. By inserting some stylized behavioral functions in the identities, the paper analyzes the implications of alternative theoretical closures of income determination (effective demand) and distribution (social conflict). On the demand side, two behavioral functions define the growth rates of capital and non-capital expenditures as functions of capacity utilization (measured by the output-capital ratio) and income distribution (measured by the labor share of income). On the distribution side, another two behavioral functions describe the growth rates of the real wage and labor productivity also as functions of capacity utilization and income distribution. The growth rates of total factor productivity and employment follow residually from the accounting identities and, in this way, the demand-led model can encompass supply-driven models as a special case.

Multi-PBil: an estimation distribution algorithm applied to multimodal optimization problems

The Estimation Distribution Algorithms (EDAs) compose an evolutionary metaheuristic whose main characteristic is the construction of solutions in randomly form, using a distribution of probabilities that evolves during the execution. The Population-Based Incremental Learning Algorithm (PBIL) is a type of EDA where the variables are independent, that is, they do not have significant interactions between themselves. The PBIL considers that the solutions can be represented as vectors of discrete variables, what makes it more adequate for combinatorial optimization problems. This paper presents a method called Multi-PBil that is an extension of PBIL with applications in multimodal problems. The Multi-PBil was developed with the goal to have an efficient and non expensive algorithm of search in multimodal spaces. From PBIL, it was implemented a routine that allows the Multi-PBil to create a probability model to act in the search space. A formula that allows initiating the probability models in regions of the search space next to the searched global points was applied in the process of the probability model initialization rule. The Multi-PBil method was tested and analyzed, presenting some experimental results that highlight its viability and characteristics. It is also shown a comparison of the performance between the Multi-PBil and a traditional Genetic Algorithm using the sharing method.VII Workshop de Agentes y Sistemas Inteligentes (WASI)Red de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Controle da pressão arterial e dos fatores associados no grupo de hipertensos do Centro de Saúde Baixas em Inhuma - Piauí

A Hipertensão Arterial Sistêmica é uma condição clínica caracterizada por níveis elevados de pressão arterial. Sua detecção, tratamento e controle são fundamentais para a redução dos eventos cardiovasculares. Este plano de ação objetiva melhorar o acompanhamento e controle da PA em hipertensos tratados no Centro de Saúde Baixas, através da capacitação de toda equipe, busca ativa dos pacientes menos assíduos, realização de palestras, acompanhamento com educador físico e nutricionista, acompanhamento clínico ambulatorial onde serão avaliados rotineiramente e solicitado uso das medicações para controle da pressão arterial. A HAS é uma doença crônica que necessita da adesão rigorosa ao tratamento, associado a mudança de estilo de vida, com a prática de atividades físicas e mudança de hábitos alimentares, para controlar a PA e prevenir suas complicações. O envolvimento de toda equipe é importante para o paciente se sentir acolhido e motivado a continuar no tratamento