Better prepared for retirement? Using panel data to improve wealth estimates of ELSA respondents

We compare the key assumptions underpinning estimates of the pension wealth of ELSA respondents to outcomes over the period from 2002–03 to 2004–05. We find that many of these assumptions have, on average, proved cautious or reasonable. Improving pension wealth calculations using this new evidence makes little difference to the distribution of pension wealth. Previous estimates of retirement resources also considered net financial, physical and housing wealth. Particularly cautious, ex-post, was the assumption that net housing wealth would remain constant in real terms. We find that average housing wealth has risen by almost 40% in nominal terms over just two years, which is in line with growth in the Nationwide House Price Index. This large increase in house prices boosts estimates of total wealth across the entire distribution of wealth. Previous research showed that once half of current net housing wealth was included as a retirement resource 12.6% of employees approaching retirement were estimated to have resources below the Pensions Commission’s definition of adequacy. We show that taking into account the high growth in house prices between 2002–03 and 2004–05 reduces this to 10.9%, and that it would fall by a further 1.2 percentage points if house prices were to grow by 2½% a year in real terms in the future

Estimating pension wealth of ELSA respondents

This paper explains the methodology used for calculating pensionwealth for all individuals in the first wave of the EnglishLongitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We focus on the pensionwealth of individuals aged between 50 and the state pension age.Both state and private pension wealth has been calculated and eachhas been calculated both on the basis of immediate retirement in2002 and on the basis of retirement at the state pension age.Sensitivity analysis of our assumptions is also presented, whichshows that the distribution of pension wealth is sensitive to ourassumptions about the discount rate and contracting out historiesbut insensitive to assumptions about future earnings growth, futureannuity rates and future asset returns

Preparing for retirement: the pension arrangements andretirement expectations of those approaching state pension age in England

This paper provides a detailed analysis of individuals inhouseholds in England aged between 50 and the State PensionAge in terms of their private pension arrangements and currentnon-pension assets alongside their expectations of futureeconomic circumstances. Our descriptive findings include thatmembers of defined benefit pensions have higher average levelsof current earnings than members of defined contributionpensions and that median expected private pension income inretirement is highest for current members of defined benefitschemes. We find that on average those who have, or have had,a private pension have greater non-pension wealth than thosewho have never had a private pension. In terms of expectationsof the future we find that it is those who have the fewest assetswho have the least attachment to the labour market and are farless likely to expect any inheritance. Hence we conclude thatinequalities in different dimensions of retirement resources tendto reinforce themselves as opposed to offset each other

State pensions and the well-being of the elderly in the UK

This paper presents the trends seen over the last quarter of the 20thCentury in various indicators of the well-being of the elderlyalongside those seen for the young. Specifically we look at measuresof both the level and distribution of income and expenditure, andself-reported measures of life satisfaction and health. We thenexploit the substantial reforms to the UK pension system over thisperiod to examine the impact of reforms to state pensions on theseoutcomes. We find that increases in the generosity of state pensionshave led to increased incomes of the elderly and reductions inmeasures of both relative and absolute income poverty. We also findthat increased state pensions have led to increased expenditure bythe elderly. It is perhaps not surprising that in the UK the reformsto the generosity of state pensions have affected outcomes amongthe elderly (instead of being fully offset by individuals when theywere younger) given that often very little (pre-retirement) notice wasgiven, and that some of the reforms were of a substantial magnitude. This paper presents the trends seen over the last quarter of the 20thCentury in various indicators of the well-being of the elderlyalongside those seen for the young. Specifically we look at measuresof both the level and distribution of income and expenditure, andself-reported measures of life satisfaction and health. We thenexploit the substantial reforms to the UK pension system over thisperiod to examine the impact of reforms to state pensions on theseoutcomes. We find that increases in the generosity of state pensionshave led to increased incomes of the elderly and reductions inmeasures of both relative and absolute income poverty. We also findthat increased state pensions have led to increased expenditure bythe elderly. It is perhaps not surprising that in the UK the reformsto the generosity of state pensions have affected outcomes amongthe elderly (instead of being fully offset by individuals when theywere younger) given that often very little (pre-retirement) notice wasgiven, and that some of the reforms were of a substantial magnitude

Bimetric Gravity Theory, Varying Speed of Light and the Dimming of Supernovae

In the bimetric scalar-tensor gravitational theory there are two frames associated with the two metrics {\hat g}_{\mu\nu} and g_{\mu\nu}, which are linked by the gradients of a scalar field \phi. The choice of a comoving frame for the metric {\hat g}_{\mu\nu} or g_{\mu\nu} has fundamental consequences for local observers in either metric spacetimes, while maintaining diffeomorphism invariance. When the metric g_{\mu\nu} is chosen to be associated with comoving coordinates, then the speed of light varies in the frame with the metric {\hat g}_{\mu\nu}. Observers in this frame see the dimming of supernovae because of the increase of the luminosity distance versus red shift, due to an increasing speed of light in the early universe. Moreover, in this frame the scalar field \phi describes a dark energy component in the Friedmann equation for the cosmic scale without acceleration. If we choose {\hat g}_{\mu\nu} to be associated with comoving coordinates, then an observer in the g_{\mu\nu} metric frame will observe the universe to be accelerating and the supernovae will appear to be farther away. The theory predicts that the gravitational constant G can vary in spacetime, while the fine-structure constant \alpha=e^2/\hbar c does not vary. The problem of cosmological horizons as viewed in the two frames is discussed.Comment: 22 pages, Latex file. No figures. Corrected typos. Added reference. Further references added. Further corrections. To be published in Int. J. Mod. Phys. D, 200

Economical genotyping of little blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) clades from feather-based DNA

Determination of clade membership is a crucial requirement for many research questions addressing phylogeography, population structure, mating patterns, speciation, and hybridisation. The little blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) can be separated into two deeply divergent clades. However, assigning clade membership in little blue penguins requires molecular methods. Genetic sequencing can be used to identify clade membership but is expensive. Here, we present an economical alternative to the use of sequencing to determine little blue penguin clade membership. We extracted DNA from feathers using a method that produced reasonable quantities of DNA. We then amplified the D-loop section of the mitochondrial control region from total genomic DNA extracts, using the primers 'C L-tRNAglu' and 'D H-Dbox' followed by digestion with the restriction enzyme AluI. When visualised on a gel, distinctive banding patterns clearly indicated clade membership. We sequenced a subset of our samples and verified the accuracy of this method. The methods we present should facilitate little blue penguin research through a cost-effective approach to clade analysis as well as a successful technique to extract DNA from feathers when blood or tissue samples are not available